Tactically Retreating to Mid-Stakes (11/19/2012)

It's been a state of general confusion and reflection for me since I've returned to the states.

First off I ended up getting smashed in China, nothing got better.  Going into the trip I had won 11 months in a row.  For the trip I was down about 8k on the tables, and the trip expenses were around 6k.  8k really isn't a massive amount for the stakes I was playing.  I was playing a game that was about 1.5x bigger than comparable 5/10.  The games were softer than 5/10's at home for the most part, but I couldn't log a big session, for like 220 hours somehow.  I picked a great time to run "nut-worst."

Before I left for the trip I was actually in a great position to stabilize and grind out 5/10.  My bankroll was over 50k.  Now It's back to around 40k.  I'm now one down-swing away on highstakes from being really miserable and even more stressed.  I thought the trip was a really good idea, and my best chance to win the most amount of money the highest percentage of the time for October-November.  Ok I was wrong.  Not only was I wrong, it was by biggest money management failure as a pro.  I foolishly jeopardized my ability to continue playing high stakes comfortably when I returned.  Now I'm going to have to adjust my outlook going forward and pay the price.  Hopefully one day I can recover and learn from my mistake.

I've decided to drop to 2/5 fully for the first time since July 2012.  I'm not sure how long I'm going to stay on 2/5.  Probably at least until my BR returns to around 50k.  I've already logged two full 2/5 sessions for a combined uneventful +$550 in 16 hours.  I will say the financial stress of 2/5 is non-existent for me at this point.

There are two major factors that made me decide to tactically drop back to mid-stakes.  The first factor was my win-rate analysis.  The second factor was my life analysis.

Win-rate Analysis.

Since I've been home I've spent a lot of time analyzing my recent career win-rate at 2/5 and 5/10.  I began taking shots at 5/10 in late March of 2012.  Since that time I have logged 466 hours at 5/10 for a rate of $31 per hour.  In comparison, I've logged 948 hours at 2/5 since October 2011 at $34 per hour.

It would seem ridiculous that I'm four times more stressed out playing high stakes and earning a rate of $3 less per hour.  There are many factors that could explain why my 5/10 win-rate has been less than mid-stakes overall including: small sample size, the stress of high stakes, taking time to make strategic adjustments to high stakes, skill advantage being lower, skill advantage being lower, not playing A-game as much, and schedule being really screwed up.

The $31 per hour at 5/10 mentioned above includes my very first 5/10 jump.  During this time (3/29/2012- 4/25/2012) I logged 112 hours at $8.75 per hour before dropping back to 2/5.

During my second jump the numbers showed signs of progress and improvement.  From 6/19/2012- 9/26/2012 I logged 354 hours of 5/10 at $38 per hour.  This is probably the more accurate sample size.  Still, even at $38 per hour that's only $4 per hour more than I made at 2/5 and it's a much more stressful life.

If I had a huge bankroll I'd still grind 5/10 at this moment, even with the recent China disaster.  Why?  I pretty much had stabalized.  I was showing signs of win-rate improvement and there was clear and reachable potential to get to around $50 per hour playing 5/10.  $50 per hour would equate to a decent life at least financially.

But the odd thing is that with my current bankroll I should still be able to win nearly the same thing grinding 2/5 with almost no stress.  I can also log more hours of 2/5 than at 5/10 because there are much more softer games to choose from.  With 5/10 I have to constantly leave tables.  2/5 I could play 8 hours of profitable poker no problem during peak times.  With 5/10, not so much. 

Life Analysis

Since I started jumping back and forth to 5/10 since March 2012 my life has been incredibly stressful.  Honestly after the nightmare trip I need a break from the burn.  I want a month or two where I'm less stressed out.  I'm fine averaging 4k a month playing 2/5 right now, fuck the money seriously.  My goal is obviously to stay at 5/10, but I think it makes sense for me to drop right now. 

Even away from poker I want to have a more normal life for at least a month or two.  I want to be able to go out a night or two when I want per week.  I want to be able to actually take a girl out on a Friday night if I want to.  Yes fuck playing poker every Friday night, sometimes other things can take priority.

New Strategy:  All 2/5, while eventually mixing in extremely selective 5/10 shots.

When to play 5/10, why I am droping to 2/5, and thoughts in no order of priority?

1)  If a known whale is playing 5/10, fine play it.

2)  I want myself in the best position to succeed long-term and I don't think 5/10 is the answer right now.  If I get smashed for 7k more I'm already in for a stressful road ahead.

3)  To eliminate the chronic stress and work on my game.

4)  To be more physically active and healthy.  Don't let poker fuck up your physical health.

5)  To have a normal social life again (at least for a month or two).

6)  When I'm up over 5k on a month it's an excellent time and reason to take a 5/10 shot.  Keeps the motivation up as well.

7)  This is my business, everything I have.  I have one poker bankroll, I only get one shot at this.  Businesses don't take un-necessary risks without evidence.  I made this mistake one time and got fucked for it, never again.

8)  I can improve my game at 2/5 and take every possible spot.  I might even end up winning close to $40 per hour at mid-stakes.

9)  So I can take additional time to study off the table.

10)  So I can take additional time to study and transition to PLO.

In China (11/6/2012)

I've been in China for over a month now.  Been crashing on high stakes out here.  October was the first net losing month on the tables I've had in 11 months.  12th month is not a charm.  I haven't given up for several reasons but it's gotten pretty bad.  I'll probably end up returning home with just over 40k to grind 5/10.  So I saved my run bad for the biggest games I've ever played.  

I'm trying to not let poker ruin this trip for me.  I love China.  Much of my reasoning for extending the trip so long hand nothing to do with poker.  I'm having a lot of fun when I'm not losing on the tables.  It's been a great experience.  The girls and city are amazing.

What has happened with poker out here has left a very bitter taste in my mouth.  Bitter to a point where I don't know how much longer I can actually play live poker for a living.  I said I'd give it three years, so that means I have about 11 more months "mandatory".  When I get home I definitely need to take a break and seriously look at things going forward.  I've given a lot of my life to the game and don't feel like I have enough to show for it.  Then I run horribly in the worst possible situation for over a month.  It's been a complete nightmare.  And I realize I'm the fucking idiot.  I'm playing a game that has horrendous short term luck for a living, and expecting average results when I go on the most important trip of my life.  Of course everything goes to shit.  I've never hated the game this much.

-bag

Out of Town (10/9/2012)

I'm currently out of town until early- mid November. I've decided not to really update until I get back. For several reasons I can't talk about where I am or what I'm doing. All I can say is its more of a business trip and there will be a lot of poker playing.

-bag

Today I Realized (9/23/2012)

2/5 is the corporate of live poker

It's always wise for one to phase out of corporate if considering long-term life quality.

Just a thought....

Mid-stakes is where one grinds...

High stakes is where one first begins their journey to build...

Burnt Out? (9/17/2012)

I know I've been terrible with positing recently, so you're going to get a long one!

Good news and bad news here:

BN:  I played 7 hours of poker last week

GN:  I won $1200

BN:  Last week I spontaneously mentally lapsed and stopped playing poker for no reason.  I don’t ever remember a lapse this extreme.

GN:  I got laid for the first time in over a month.  I don’t seem to have a problem getting laid when I’m at my hometown or even on vacation.  But around AC it’s developed into a recurring issue for me.  Probably because I only hit on girls and meet new people when I go out to clubs, everyone out here is pretty much visiting, oh and I’ve only been going out like once every two weeks, so yeah pretty stupid.  That’s what a two night window in the past month to get laid?  Holy shit I had better odds in corporate.

My hours logged for the past 6 weeks are:

Week one (30), week two (30), week three (39), week four (35), week five (40), and week six (7).

Therefore, I was staying pretty focused until last week.  And I actually worked really hard during the 30 hour weeks.   Scouting different shifts at the casino and ruining my schedule for the game isn’t included in the raw hours.

I’m concerned about what happened last week.  It pretty much started when I found out my ex (from hometown) is now married (I hate you so much Facebook).  I’d been in the longest relationship of my life with that girl, and we almost got married.  Hell we probably would have got married if I didn’t transition into playing poker full time.  Which is fine, I’ve accepted it, but this still had me a little crazy.

It had me pretty psychotic for at least two days.  Well not psychotic, it just mentally ruined me for a short period of time.  I couldn’t even think about playing.  All I could think about was doing anything but poker, mostly going out.  I recognized this so I didn’t play; I knew I would have just hemorrhaged money on any stakes.  Don't ask me how it went from winning over 4k in a week, to "fuck it" the very next week.

Then I just completely lost focused.  Two days later I met up with a girl I used to see in AC.  Then I went out really hard and partied Wednesday night.  Then I went out Friday night and destroyed my schedule.  After partying a stupid amount I ended up hanging out with a girl I met until 10:30 a.m the next day (Friday into Saturday morning).  This resulted in me feeling so bad Saturday that I couldn’t even play poker.  All I remember about Saturday is waking up around 5p.m and stumbling over half a bottle of champagne that I had apparently left in my closet from the “night” before.  I felt horrible, hung-over and tired.  I couldn’t nap it off.  So I just played video games a few hours and slept.  I woke up Sunday and felt just as bad.

I forced walking into the casino on Sunday for no reason other than "it's my job and it's what I'm supposed to do."  I played an hour and left. 

I felt mentally depleted and physically drained.  I also wanted to kill half the regulars at the table for no reason, after being there 30 minutes, which felt like 3 hours.  As soon as I sat for the first time in 3 nights I was greeted by a middle aged Asian lady regular who looks like she got clubbed in the face with a shovel saying "I WANT THAT SEAT."  She's probably developed into my "top 5 most annoying regulars to actually look at" category.  She probably plays 60 hours per weeks somehow on 5/10.  I mean that is what you have to do when your long-term win-rate is around $5 per hour.  

Thinking back on the 30 minutes I also specifically remember one middle aged white women who sat down on the 5/10 table I was occupying, equipped with stupid ass sun-glasses and an ipad.  Clearly some waste of life full blown retard in town for the tournaments.  Hell yeah girl, better rock out those 5/10's and grind out $15 per hour.  No fuck actually dropping stakes and learning how to play the game.  Has your vagina been touched during the past 5 years?  She just looked like such a fucking clown I couldn't stand it.  I just remember thinking: "how am I this unlucky?  What do you mean?  Well to even be fucking born in the year 1985.  To take a path where here I am, forced to sit next to this idiot while doing my job.  How did it come to this?  There really is no hope for me is there?  And what the hell is wrong with that Asian lady?  Was she hit in the face with a shovel recently?"

I have no idea how this upcoming week is going to play out.  I'm going to go out on a limb and say probably not great based on my last paragraph.  I'll most likely attempt to try and get refocused and log some good high stakes hours.  But right now I have no idea where the desire to do so is.  I’m almost never like this and it’s not good.  I also feel something is wrong with me physically.  I'm chronically tired and can't even fix my schedule to attempt a 4 hour session.  I'm hoping it's a short-term side affect from being an idiot all last week.   I tried to sleep at 12a.m tonight, just laid there and woke up at 3:20 a.m, so I wrote this post.  Fml.

-bag