Updates and Supernova Time-Line (5.31.2010)

The Week and Going Forward

My loss-rate seemed to actually be stabilizing during the first 20 hours of play this week.  I wouldn’t say I ran well during any of the sessions, but yeah that’s usual.  Combined I was only down around -$100, and that included a 3 hour -$148 session last Tuesday.

Then of course I play 2 hours last night and get slammed for -$221.  So I finished the week down around -$300 thanks to that bull-shit.  Let me just say I will have nightmares about those two hours.  I looked at the top ten losing hands and there wasn’t much I could do to avoid it.  The third all in two-outer I lost I actually screamed something incoherent out loud.  So I guess I haven’t been able to completely eliminate my emotions.

The only good thing that came out of this week was I hit my 70,000 VPP mark, which was my goal.  I am exactly 70% to Supernova.  I plan to put in at least 6 hours tonight, which should put me a little ahead of pace volume wise for the upcoming week.

Time-Line to Supernova

I feel Supernova is my ticket to quitting my day job.  With this status I plan to comfortably leave corporate.  I’ve been running bad, but I have to keep the faith that it will balance out eventually.  If I keep making the right plays things will eventually look up.  Even the worst case scenario of playing break-even with Supernova status = freedom.

Last week I put together a road-map that plots out exactly when I plan to hit Supernova.  It includes specific hours that I need to play each week to hit my goals.  This time line is very aggressive, and I will have to stay extremely focused.  That being said, if I play around break even during this stretch I would feel comfortable quitting my day job around the end of July (though the goal is obviously to always profit at the highest level possible).  Looking at everything I’m speculating my personal independence day to be July 26^th, 2010.  I really don’t know how things are going to go, but this is the goal I am setting.  If I run like I did the past two months I almost certainly won’t have the confidence to quit on this date.  But worst case scenario I push the date back another month, and I continue to torture myself.  Hell I’m not going to pretend this is easy in any way.

So here is my time-line.  I’m going to be referring to this during the upcoming month to stay focused and track my progress:

Week 1:  May 24^th (Monday)- May 31^st (Monday)

Mandatory Target: 4,300 VPPs.

Estimated Time:  24 hours of 12 tabling.

Notes:  This goal is complete.

Expected Total at Conclusion:  70,000 VPPs. (CHECK)

Week 2:  June 1^st (Tuesday)- June 6^th (Sunday)

Mandatory Target: 5,000 VPPs.

Estimated Time: 24-hours of 12 tabling.

Notes:  This is going to be a hell of a grind during this time frame.  But it should be fully possible because I can put in extra time Sunday night, which will be a full session.  Being off the 7^th, I can grind into the wee hours of Monday morning, which should be fun!

Expected Total at Conclusion:  75,000 VPPs.

Week 3:  June 7^th (Monday)- June 13^th (Monday)

Mandatory Target 15,000 VPPs.

Estimated Time:  60 Hours of 12 tabling.

Notes:  This is the full week I took off to play poker.  The mandatory target may not be humanly possible for me, but I’m going to try to push as close to 15,000 VPPs during this time-frame as possible.  This is going to be a complete war, I have to be nearly 100% consumed by poker with no other distractions to give myself any sort of chance at hitting this target.

Even with 60 hours of 12 tabling I’m only calculating around 12,000 VPPs, so my projections are still short.  I may plan to comfortably mix in 18 tables at peak times to help hit the target.  Also I’m going to try to put in some extra time during week 2 which should help.

Expected Total at Conclusion:  90,000 VPPs.

Week 4:  June 14^th ( Monday)- June 20^th (Sunday)

Mandatory Target:  5,000 VPPs.

Estimated Time:  24 hours of 12 tabling.

Notes:  Keep pushing!  I’m back at the day job now, but I should really have a great system in place by this point.  Or I’ve dumped in around $2,000 more to fight the EV bleed, and I’m hating life.  ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

Expected Total at Conclusion:  95,000 VPPs.

Week 5:  June 22^nd (Tuesday)- June 27^th (Sunday)

Mandatory Target:  5,000 VPPs.

Estimated Time:  24 hours of 12 tabling.

Notes:  24 more hours of grind on top of the day-job.  There is still tons of work to be done.  Here I expect to hit Supernova.  The question is whether I stumble into Supernova or bleed money the entire way.  If I bleed money massively I may have to push back my freedom date.

Expected Total at Conclusion:  100,000 VPPs (SUPERNOVA BIATCH)

Week 6:  June 28^th (Monday) – July 4^th (Sunday)

Mandatory Target:  5,000 VPPs.

Estimated Time:  24 hours of 12 tabling.

Notes:   The goal of this week is to map out a win-rate at Super-nova status.  This will depend on how terrible you happen to be running at the time, but I expect to get a solid estimation.  It sucks that the 4^th of July falls on the weekend, I could have used an extra day off from the day job to grind.

Expected Total at Conclusion:  105,000 VPPs

Week 7:  July 5^th (Monday)- July 11^th (Sunday)

Notes:  At the conclusion of this week I should be able to take my last 40-50 hours of play and map out a win-rate (hopefully?) going forward.  If I’m winning anything per 100 BBs I’m very happy.  If I’m playing break even I’m still making more than my day job.  If I’m slightly losing, I still might be ok as crazy as that sounds.  If I’m losing substantially then I will be forced to push back my corporate secession date and regroup.

This would be the time to put in a 2-week notice.  Or if things are going well fuck the two week notice and GOOD-BYE TO YOU.

Weeks 8 and 9: July 12^th- July 23^rd.

The last two weeks I rot in a dark shitty office?  Take this time to get focused and prepared for your next challenge in life.  Keep grinding out at least 5,000 VPPs during these two weeks, but at this point I won’t have to kill myself with two jobs, since my path is finally set going forward with the decision to quit.

July 26^th (My personal independence day):  Freedom, purpose, and passion now return to my life for the first time in almost three years.  EVERY WEEK, EVEN FROM MONDAY- FRIDAY.

Failing At Life (5.24.2010)

If you came here to read about how much I suck at poker, please refer to the last post I put up at 4:57 p.m on Sunday.  As some of you may know I have been failing at life as well.  This happens to be an epic life failure post.  The failure occurred as I decided to go out for a few hours on Friday night.  I went to a bar to catch up with a few friends.  It was a bar and town I really wasn’t familiar with, but I was looking for an adventure.  And WOW did I get an adventure.

The adventure occurred because I decided to blatantly hit on the best looking girl at the bar.  There were not many good looking girls, but this girl was EXTREMELY attractive.  I wasn’t drunk, and I’d have to give her a 10 out of 10.  That being said I’m rating extremely strict, and I’m pickier than anyone I’ve ever met really.  Maybe it was a bit of an “attractive by comparison” situation because the rest of the bar was so miserable, but she was at least a 9 out of 10.  We immediately hit it off.  Soon we were dancing, and she was doing some crazy stuff.  I mean I could keep up, but this girl was off the hook WILD.  I wanted to talk to her more, and we decided to go into the side bar, which was away from the dance floor.  We talked a while, had a few drinks, perhaps made-out some.

After talking a while I immediately find out some disturbing developments.  The girl is 21 years old, and has a 4-year old kid (uh-oh).  Being a nice guy I didn’t leap out of the nearest window at this point, I enjoy a challenge whatever right?

I ask about the father, and she says that he is completely out of the picture.  Also, they are still legally married and haven’t finalized the divorce yet.  So sweet the angry legal husband is still lurking around somewhere, that’s always good news!  I assumed he was in other state, but I didn’t probe into it.

Then I find out the girl used to be a stripper.  She termed it “dancer” when I asked how she learned to dance like that.  OK SORRY THE GIRL USED TO BE A DANCER!  At this point somewhere I must have been reasoning: “well if you’re 21-years old and have a 4-year old kid you might as well be a dancer”.

Then I find out the girl is also engaged to another guy.  She said her friend proposed to her, and she didn’t know how to say no LOL.  So she actually had the ring on from the other guy, it was very nice!  Being a completely insane person by nature I decided to keep hanging out with her, and I’m still physically attracted.  Besides, this story just got too fucking good, I can’t bail out now right?

Quick summary of the girl:

A)  Drop dead gorgeous

B)  21 years old.

C)  Has a 4-year old son.

D)  Used to be a stripper (or still is?).    

E)  Legally married to some dude who is “said to be” out of the picture.

F)  Also technically engaged to another guy, who she “doesn’t love” and is waiting for the right moment to break it off with.

Dance Floor Gone Wild.

So despite the girl having a few minor issues, I saw no problem hanging out and having fun.  At one point I’m on the dance floor and the DJ or staff member yells something at me.  He goes: “TAKE YOUR GIRL-FRIEND AND GET HER OUT OF HERE, SHE’S GOT TO LEAVE, NOW!!!”

Ok first LOLs at girl-friend.  But for the rest of the story I will just refer to her as my girlfriend or GF since it’s humorous to me.

Apparently what happened was my GF flashed a little on the dance floor.  For some reason I seriously don’t think it was blatant.  I just think one of her tits may have sort-of popped out for like a second.  I didn’t actually see it happen, so I gave her the benefit out the doubt, but honestly I would have sided her anyways (she is my girlfriend).  She was somewhat drunk at this point, and it could have even been an accident.  She was dancing crazy, but I’m going to go out on the limb and say she definitely didn’t intentionally flash her tits in the middle of the dance floor. 

Ok either way.  So why are you kicking this girl or apparently “my girlfriend” out again?  Because she dances good?  Your entire establishment is lame, there is nothing else of interest here, let’s be honest.  But it’s cool you guys care so much about keeping everything”PG-13”.  Meanwhile people are getting plastered and getting into accidents as they drive home.

An Attempt to Diffuse the Situation.

When the guy yelled at me that the girl had to leave, I knew he was dead serious.  I immediately talked to my new girl-friend and convinced her to come back to the side bar with me.  I didn’t fully explain the situation, but she wouldn’t have understood at the time anyways.  So I go back into the side-bar with her, and one or two other people (I don’t even remember what association they had to us).

At this point I realize my GF has gotten really drunk, more than I realized.  I immediately have her sit down, and order her water.  Within 2 minutes two staff members hunt us down and surround me.  They say my GF has to “get the fuck out now”.  I explain that she is really drunk, I’m sorry for any problems, but if she just has a glass of water here in this secluded back-bar, she will be fine, and I will take her home immediately after.

The staff decides to be complete assholes and say they will throw her out if she doesn’t leave at this moment.  So I stick with her and leave.

The Walk to the Car.    

The girl can barely walk.  We just got thrown out of the bar, and I have no idea where her friends are and who she even came with.  My only option is to get her to my car which is further down the parking lot.  We can’t sit outside the bar until she gets better because the staff is around and we are kicked out.  So my only goal at this point is to get the girl to my car, get her some water, and re-unite her with her friends I guess.

On the short-walk to my car I’m supporting about 70% of this girl’s weight.  She was a slender girl so I could easily handle it, but she was certainly unable to walk alone.

Almost immediately after I get her to my car this girl starts puking her guts out.  I think it’s about 12:30 a.m at this point.  She’s launching outside of my passenger door with it slightly opened.

She really doesn’t know what is going on while she is puking.  She is pretty much puking blacked out.  At this point it’s like taking care of a child.  Most of the time I’m holding her hair up.  I’m also holding her body in place so she doesn’t fall out or something.  Finally she stops and I get her to lay comfortably in the passenger’s seat.  Thinking fast I immediately run to my trunk, and wrap a large paper bag in an empty trash bag.

At this point her friend calls her phone and I answer.  I explain to her the situation.  Her friend says she can’t give her a ride and that she is “going home with a guy”.  Her friend also tells me that my “girlfriends” car is at a random gas station.  Her friend agrees to meet my GF in the morning at her place if I drop her off.  She says she can then pick her up and take her to her car: “not a problem”.

Then the chick starts puking again.  This time mostly in the strange bag I constructed for her.  I have to continue to hold her up the entire time and make sure she is ok.  She eventually stops puking and I realize it’s approaching 2:00 a.m.  Now I realize I have to get the fuck out of the parking lot.  Cops sweep through parking lots like that as the bar closes and look for drunk people.  They would probably give me a DUI and beat-down on principle.

At this point I can’t drop this girl off at her place. I have no idea where the fuck her place is and she’s completely passed out.  I’m forced to take her to my house, or stay and risk the wrath of the cops. 

The Drive Home.

I’m generally driving extremely slow at this point.  My GF is not completely coherent yet and I’m sort of holding her in place with one arm while I’m driving with the other.  My house is about 30 minutes away, but driving at this rate more like 45 minutes.

15-20 minutes into the drive the girl wakes up and starts forming sentences that are becoming more coherent.  I explain to her the situation and she somewhat understands.  I pick up that going to my house is not a good idea because she said she has to be with her son when he wakes up.  If anything I feel bad for the son.  Next, I pull over on the side of the road.  I remap my GPS to her place, which she gives me an address to.  She can barely say the address, but after some clarification I get it.

So I u-turn and begin my journey the complete opposite way to wherever the hell she usually sleeps at night.

Conversations.   

As I’m driving back to her place she becomes increasingly coherent and begins recovering fast.  We talked about a lot, I have no idea half the things we talked about.  But the conversations flowed well, and some of them were very funny.

I’ll pull some I remember here:

Convo 1:

GF:  (while staring at me and checking me out) “I guess not all the sweet guys are gone”

Baglife:  “That’s very nice of you, thanks”

GF:  “You’re welcome”

………

Baglife:  “But I’m not really sweet.  I was just pretending so maybe I could trick you into liking me”

GF:  “Oh seriously?”

Baglife:  “I was uhh … just kidding”

GF: “Lol”

Convo 2:

GF:  “This week is going to be kinda stressful.  I’m getting breast enlargement surgery”

Baglife:  “Are you serious?  Wow they already look nice to me?”

GF:  “No way, really?  They’re too small”

Baglife:  “I honestly don’t think they’re too small at all.  You’re a small girl; they are perfectly shaped to your body.  Size isn’t everything here”.

(She then goes on the show me one of her tits.  It was amazing, and as I originally said PERFECTLY proportioned to her body.  Pro-tip: this is not the best thing to be doing while driving in an area you’re already very unfamiliar with.)

GF:  “See it’s not very big”

Baglife:  “But very attractive and proportionate.  Well I hope everything goes smooth.  I wouldn’t worry much, I’m certain that’s a very common surgery.”

GF:  “Well you have to come over sometime later this week and check them out.”

Baglife:  “It’d be hard to turn that offer down, but I’m not sure your current fiancé would approve of that”

GF:  “OMG I can’t believe I’m still legally married and have a new fiancé.  I don’t know how to tell him that I don’t want to be with him.  We were friends for a long time and he just proposed out of no-where.”

Baglife:  “I’d recommend being extremely honest, and telling him as soon as possible.  I know you were taken by surprise at first and it was a mistake agreeing to it.  But the longer you wait to tell him, the more unfair it is too him.  It’s also unfair to yourself, it seems you would be living a lie and unhappy.”

(I have no idea where this convo went next).

Baglife:  "Well I still want to hold your hand even know you have a fiance and are legally married (while actually holding her hand while driving with my other arm).

5-Miles Away.

My GF asks if she can smoke in my car.  I don’t smoke, but I let other people smoke usually if they ask.  I agree, and say only she is allowed to smoke in there.

She acts very disappointed that she is out of cigs.  I ask if she would want to stop off for a pack, considering I need to fill up my tank anyways.  She likes that idea, but explains she has ZERO MONEY.  Because apparently the friend that left her at the bar to hook up with some guy has all of her possessions. 

I say I can buy a pack, but will only support her habit once.  I stop off and begin filling the tank.  She happens to find 3 smokes, so she says she doesn’t need a pack.  But I buy her a lighter because I’m just that nice of a guy I guess?

So as I’m filling the tank the fiancé calls her, who is apparently at the house I’m taking her too……..

Now I’m worried that I’m going to drop her off and some guy is going to attack me.  I asked her if the guy is reasonable.  She says:  “Yeah totally”.

Uh ok great………..

So quick thinking I tell her to just say that I’m her friend’s friend.  But her friend left with a guy, so I had to take her home.

She stuck with that story and said that to the fiancé.  Eventually he asks to talk to me through her phone.  So I talk to him, act logical, and give the same walk around answer.  I also spin it off that I’m indeed helping him out as well, which I in-fact WAS.  Because if I didn’t take this mess of a girl home, she could be arrested or passed out on a parking lot (though I didn’t say that).  Or she could have met a guy who would have actually taken advantage of her or something.  He says “something isn’t adding up, but thanks”.  AKA “I don’t trust “my girl” at all or you”.  Understandably so.

So a few minutes after I give the phone back the conversation ends with her yelling at him “DON’T TAKE MY SON OUT WHEN IT’S THIS LATE”

I notice there is a cop behind me at the gas station and tell her to shut the fuck up after I asked nicely twice.  I mean enough is enough.

Then I drive a few miles to her place.  I notice the lights are on, and the main door is open.  There is a thin screen door enclosing entrance.

After making sure she can walk I pull up a few blocks past the house to avoid any confrontation.  She generously gives me a kick-ass hug, and asks if I saved my number in her phone.  I of course did earlier in the night, and she says she will text me the next day.

I then swung around and drove off.  As I was driving past I got a glimpse of the guy.  I could feel the anger a mile away.  He was definitely a bigger guy, well big compared to me which isn’t saying that much.  But yeah it wouldn’t have been a great time throwing down with this dude.

The first text I received the next day from her was:  “Hey omg what happened last nite lol?”

Note I arrived at the bar around 10:30 p.m.  Ridiculous situations follow me, and this was no different.  All this going down in 4.5 hours was impressive.  If anything I remember why nothing really good comes from me going out.  I’d nearly be better bleeding away money on the poker tables during the weekends, which I have been doing quite well. 

Cool girl though!

-bag

Failing at Poker (5.23.2010)

As of Sunday 5.23.2010 I am failing at poker and life.  This weekend has been a real kick in the face so far.  Let’s start with poker, then cover life in a separate post!

Failing at Poker:

I started off putting in a 4 hour session Saturday afternoon, which went ok I guess.  I was up $23 at the end, so about break even.  Then the wheels started to completely come off.  I put in another session 3.5 hour session 9:00 p.m- 12:30 a.m and lost -$162.  I ran under $100 EV even with HEM stats without the ridiculous coolers.

Not satisfied I decided to put in another 3 hour session from 1:00a.m- 4:00 a.m.  Smacked for -$224.  This was the most disgusting session I have played in a while.

The hands below sum this session up.  If I hold on in these key spots it’s even.  And I’m just picking out the worst hands:

AK < 37s, -$46.  All in on the turn with top pair king, ace kicker.  He calls with bottom pair and a gut-shot and hits.  84% equity and I can’t hold on.

AA< J8s, -$50.  All in on the turn.  I have 80% equity, as he decides to jam his life with mid-pair 8.

AK < JQs -$45.  All in pre-flop.  61% equity, but he uh called $20 pre with JQs?  He happened to hit a queen on the river.

At this point I’m about to kill something, but it keeps going.

28o< QQ -$36.  All in on the flop.  BB special, I flop top two pair against a clown limping on the button with QQ.  I have 82% equity on the turn and again FAIL AT LIFE.

AK< QKo -$30.  All in pre-flop.  Seriously?

KK < AJs -$50.  All in on the flop of T, K, Q.  Of course the dude happened to flop the nut straight against my top set.  Go fuck yourself.

AK< KK -$40.  All in pre.  Tons I can do there.

QQ < AA -$40.  All in pre. 

AA < KTs.  All in on the flop.  Please teach me how to flop top two pair and hold playing that shit.

And I’ll stop going over the hands, I’m quite done.  Just imagine these hands occurring in the span of 2 hours, and that’s my every session.  With all of the complete bull-shit above, if I win just the 3 hands where I’m all in with 80%+ equity I’m down less than $100 for the nightmare session.  Win 4 out of the 8 above and it’s even.  Win 7 out of the 8 like any regular and it’s a WIN!

Some leaks:

1)  I’m still too tight.  I know the ranges I need to be in, and I’m just failing to get there.  I think part of the reason is I’m table selecting to a higher degree, so you have to be somewhat tighter.  A lot of your hand values go down when you have lots of action going on before you.

My 3-bet% still isn’t getting there.  I look back at my sessions and say for example “ok I really should have shoved AJ or AQ there”.  I run so bad I’m afraid someone is going to wake up with a big hand who hasn’t acted once I make the shove.

Really you can afford to risk your 20BB chip stack pre-flop with even a 40% equity playing a short-stack.  That is, if you are assigning someone a range, and you feel you would have 40% equity if he calls your shove.  40% doesn’t sound great, but the regulars do it all the time and never run bad over a billion hands (they are doing something right).  There are plenty of spots I am missing where I would be at least 45% equity if they called a theoretical shove based on their range and I’m just not hitting all of the spots. 

I don’t think I’m doing horrendous, but I have to constantly be pressuring myself to expand my range, and pick profitable spots to shove pre-flop.

2)  Failure to stack up to 20BB.  For whatever idiotic reason, I have been failing to stack up to 20BB during the past month or so when my stack dwindles.  I figured a smaller stack would just give me more leverage to make optimal plays.  Also, I assumed I would lose less money and still be earning rake-back.  I’ve been thinking about this, and I think I’ve been terribly incorrect.  When I do actually get dealt a big hand, I have to maximize what I earn from it.  And I’ve had a problem of being too tight. 

I think the combined problems of being too tight and letting my stacks dwindle has really helped make my poker sessions miserable.  So I put all this time into table selecting, and I let my stack dwindle below 15BB, WHAT THE HELL WAS I THINKING?  I need the stack to pay off when I do hit a big hand, and I need a 20BB stack to pressure more players into folding pre-flop.

So going forward I will be instantly re-buying up to 20BBs when my stack falls below 19.  Here is one instant leak plug.

3)  Weekend and going forward.  I lost -$363 in the combined sessions this weekend in just 11 hours.  My explanations for the disgusting loss in no particular order would be:

A) Running like shit.

B) Failing to stack up to 20BB to maximize profit from my big hands.

C)  Playing too tight (including 3-bet shoving pre and Raising pre with above-average holdings against limpers).

A will never work out for me, I will never run good in my life; I’ve accepted that.  B has been instantly plugged.  And C is a work in progress.  I’m hoping that one day I can have not only B, but C fixed.  I need to get to a point where B and C are indefinitely cancelling out the two-headed dragon A; variance.

Stay tuned for my failing at life post!

Thursday +$108 and 3-bet Leak (5.20.2010)

Well I decided not to go out tonight.  Yes something is obviously wrong with me.  I put in a session.  I played again, even after I totally flipped my shit last night (as some of you may have read the post), even after I swore off poker until the weekend.  I was supposed to hit the bottle tonight to forget about my troubles, put on some charm, pick up a few phone numbers from girls who are attractive (but generally awful human beings), and of course NEVER CALL THEM.  Or pathetically fall into the mistake of calling one and wasting MASSIVE AMOUNTS of time (It happens to the best of us).  Well the swearing off poker idea didn't last very long.  The main friend who was pushing me to go out bailed last minute, so without the social pressure to get train-wrecked I decided to just stay in.  Sure I could have gone out, there is always someone going out.  After I woke up from a nap around 8:30 I felt confident and in the mood to play so I just put in a session.

Quick Summary:

Hours:  3

Tables: 12

Hands Played: 1,610

Profit:  +$108

HEM picked up an EV of +$46, so I didn't run horrendously, but it could have been better.  There were a few suck-outs, but there pretty much is always going to be when you play 12 tables at once.  It could always be better I suppose.  But beating the EV is always a good sign.  I pulled off one pretty big bum-hunt for an $80 pot which was amazing.  The person I was hunting wriggled off the hook, but I ended up bashing a regular instead for an $80 pot.  Of course he bitched something along the lines of "this site is such fucking bs".  Yeah you only make like over 70k a year playing POKER for a living on the site you are cursing, but keep bitching more you pathetic clown.  He was going after the same person probably, he happened to flop top two pair, while I flopped a set.  Obviously he's going to have trouble getting away from that, which he understandably did not.  The guy is a huge prick, so I would rather double up on him than the money spewing mega-donk 3 seats to my left who safely wriggled off the hook.

Anyways, One of the biggest adjustments I made was a constant focus on picking spots to 3-bet shove and be more aggressive.  My 3bet was 4.8% for the session.  Comparably, my 3-bet % for my last 10 sessions combined was a pathetic 3.2%.  This is a leak I will continue to focus on plugging up.  Even tonight I picked a few profitable spots and ran two push-able hands into AA, but that's just unlucky.  I have to keep the aggression up based on my reads and opponent ranges.

Several weeks ago I took a break during a weekend and put in some really solid analysis, EVEN 3-BET PERCENTAGES (HOW USEFUL!!!).  I happened to collect the 3-bet percentage of 5 of the best short-stackers on my stakes combined in case I needed it for future reference.  The sample size was over 20k hands that I had collected while playing tables with them.  Their average 3-bet was 5.16%.  Throwing out the two outliers the average was 5%.  Therefore, anything deviating far below the 5% is going to generally indicate a leak that needs to be plugged.  Sometimes it should be higher than 5% and sometimes lower.  Sometimes you will just happen to be in more 3-bet situations, and vice-versa.

Tonight I felt like my 3-bet % was around normal.  There were two or three border-line spots where I could have shoved, but my instincts told me to hold off on pulling the trigger based on the situations.  Or I was maybe just being a coward, which can happen when you run 4 grand under EV in two months.  Losing streaks tend to make you want to be tighter, which is a trend you have to make sure you don't permanently fall into.     

The 3-bet % is a stat I'm going to be looking at after every session going forward.  I have always had a tendency to be too tight, and want to wait for a higher EV situation.  My intentions are good, but usually a leak.  The online games today are just far to tough to sit around and wait for the very best hands, even on full ring games.  That shit may have flew just fine a year ago, but not today.  Generally the more 3-bet situations you can pick out, the better.

Anyways I was extremely relieved that I ended tonight with a very solid session.  I was happy with my play and profit never hurts.  This should give me confidence going into the weekend.  It was a lot better than getting wasted and screwing up my schedule for two days.  Tomorrow night I will probably not play and get in some needed tennis in or other form of physical activity.  However, I want to keep posting during this upcoming weekend.  I need to answer to someone, I need to keep thinking A LOT, and constantly analyzing.  I won't be a stranger when it comes to posting here.   I'm not doing so bad.  3 out of the last 4 sessions I have profited, so my job is to do all in my power to keep up that trend to the best of my ability.  It will be great going to sleep not pissed off.

Hope anyone who stumbled here has a great night!

Cheers,

-bag

The EV of Limping or Shoving LP with a Short-Stack (Full-Ring)

The analysis here will discuss whether you should push all in or limp with a low pocket pair when the action is on you with a short-stack of 20BB in the SB or BB and 3 opponents have limp-called ahead.  It was always my belief that you should limp here, but some comments inspired by BH made me want to go into the math of this scenario more.  If you shove just how screwed are you?

Analysis A: EV of set-mining with low-pairs Late Position with 20BB:

Going forward let’s say specifically we are holding 33 in this spot.  I’ve argued that it is more +EV in the long-run set mining in this spot with minimized variance, even with just 20BB. 

I valued a successful set mine here at approximately +20.5BB (+4.5BB from the blinds and limpers and +16BB from amount expected to win).  Let’s look at the approximate +EV of set-mining late with a short-stack based on 8 scenarios:

Scenario 1 lost .5 BB and folded.

Scenario 2 lost .5 BB and folded.

Scenario 3 lost .5 BB and folded.

Scenario 4 lost .5 BB and folded.

Scenario 5 lost .5 BB and folded.

Scenario 6 lost .5 BB and folded.

Scenario 7 lost .5 BB and folded.

Scenario 8 won back the .5 BB and WON +20.5BB.

In the first 7 scenarios combined you lose 3.5BB by calling and folding when you miss your set on the flop.  Now we include scenario 8 and average winning 20.5BB when we hit.  Overall you are profiting around 17 BB for every 8 scenarios here by set mining, with very little variance.

Analysis B. EV of Shoving with low-pairs Late Position with 20BB:

Now let’s do the same 8 scenarios only we shove all-in.  I’m going to assume at least 3 out of the 8 times you will be called with 44-TT.  This is based on my experience full-ringing at rig-stars.  Though I really think it would be more like 5 out of 8 times, but I’ll assume 3 here for fun.  Next I’m going to assume you’re called 3 out of the 8 times with a coin-flip situation (this includes someone getting tricky with a big hand like AK, or someone just clueless for that matter who decides to stack off with A5+ or whatever).  For easy math we will use 50% equity.  Now let’s assume that 2 out of the 8 times everyone folds around and you pick up the pot.  So here we go:     

Scenario 1.  Shove 20BB.  You’re called with 44-TT by LIMPER 3 or 4.  You’re 20% to win.  You lose -20BB.  But remember we suck out 20% of the time so knock that -20BB down to -16BB.

Scenario 2.  Shove 20BB.  You’re called with  44-TT by LIMPER 3 or 4.  -16BB.

Scenario 3.  Shove 20BB.  You’re called with  44-TT by LIMPER 3 or 4.  -16BB.

Scenario 4.  Shove 20BB.  Coin-flip situation.  +4BB Since we will include the 1.5BB in blinds and 3BB from the other limpers on top of our 50% equity.    

Scenario 5.  Shove 20BB.  Coin-flip situation.  Again, +4BB.

Scenario 6.  Shove 20BB.  Coin-flip situation.  +4BB.

Scenario 7.  Shove 20BB.  Every-one pathetically folds.  No one person had the courage to call!!! What a cowardly table you play on.  This is an awesome situation.  +4BB

Scenario 8.  Shove 20BB.  COWARDS!!!  +4BB

Scenario 4-8 combined = +20BB. 

Scenario 1-3=  -36BB

Total combined = -12BB

I’m coming up with -12BB for the 8 scenarios when shoving, and this is being generous based on my experience. 

Analysis C. Vacuum Analysis without actual stats

For fun let’s say we come up with some stats that say in a vacuum the players will fold around 5 out of 8 times which could be close to likely.  Certainly not likely on my stakes and format, but perhaps close to likely if we took every full-ring poker situation in the 100NL online universe where we shove the limpers with our 20BB stack holding 33.  Then let’s say 1 of those times you will run into 44-TT (Yeah right), and 2 out of those times you will coin-flip.  This is the best possible scenario I could ever imagine shoving your 20BB short stack with 33 from SB with 3 limpers on a full-ring table.  Here we go.

Scenario 1:  You’re called with 44-TT by LIMPER 3 or 4.  -16BB.

Scenario 2:  Shove 20BB.  Coin-flip situation.  +4BB.

Scenario 3.  Shove 20BB.  Coin-flip situation.  +4BB.

Scenario 4.  Shove 20BB.  Coin-flip situation.  +4BB.

Scenario 5.  Shove 20BB. THE COWARDS FOLD!  +4BB

Scenario 6.  Shove 20BB. THE COWARDS FOLD!  +4BB

Scenario 7.  Shove 20BB. THE COWARDS FOLD!  +4BB

Scenario 8.  Shove 20BB. THE COWARDS FOLD!  +4BB

Scenario 1 equates to -16BB.  The rest of the scenarios combined will yield around 28BB of profit based on the 8 scenarios combined.

This would mean +12BB based on the sample size, even if in our perfect vacuum world we only ran into a 44-TT hand 12.5% of the time.  But going back to the first example our set-mine profit still turned out to be +17BB.

So overall I’m calculating at least a +5BB EV by CALLING for the set in this situation, as opposed to jamming.  This +5BB is a huge number, and that is still assuming the best case scenario I can imagine for shoving here, which would be facing utter domination only 1 out of 8 times.

Looking at this analysis in a vacuum:

A logical factor to consider here would be the % of times that your opponents are in fact dealt 44-TT.  I could research this and get the exact numbers, but I won’t since I’m at work right now and all poker is blocked.  Also I think it would be somewhat of a waste of time.  Getting caught up doing analysis in a vacuum is a great way to become totally out of touch with the actual situation.  I think this the kind of thing that many people go wrong on.  I think this is why David Sklansky can’t win a tournament to save his life.  The math wiz David hasn’t won a World Series bracelet since 1982, yet large circles still worship his books and theories.  Why hasn’t he won more?  Because in a vacuum his plays are correct.  Fine justify all of your plays in a vacuum if that makes you sleep at night.

Furthermore, my vacuum analysis above was when I calculated with the massive assumption that our opponents will fold 5 out of 8 times to our shove.  Honestly, my original analysis “B” sums up my actual beliefs (-12BB per 8 situations), while the vacuum analysis “C” was just being nice (+8BB per 12 situations).  Analysis B was where the opponents will fold around 2 out of 8 times.  Shoving here becomes a negative EV play, I can’t justify it any differently.  Keep in mind 3 limpers ahead of you is a VERY rare situation on PokerStars full-ring games.  Their ranges favor holding hands like 44-TT.  To push you need to absolutely have a sick almost out of this world HUD read on all 3 limpers.  I’d say that no short-stacker at full ring 100NL stakes is good enough to make this push profitably.

I didn’t mean to pick on the 33 hand.  This was just a starting point for me.  I think each hand will have a slightly different result.  I still personally would feel comfortable set mining anything under pocket 88 here based on a variance and EV perspective.

In conclusion if you’re holding a low pair in the SB with a short-stack on a full ring table and have 3 limpers ahead of you FOR THE LOVE OF GOD LIMP.  Calling is the way to go.

I’m open to any thoughts on this analysis.  Especially from FK and BH who brought this particular discussion up and got me interested on justifying my out-look.  I wouldn’t be surprised if I made a few mistakes in their, I’m no David Skalnsky by any means.

Either way this was a good exercise to waste an hour of my useless work day.

-bag