No Hands Logged: Hitting the Books (4.30.2010)

I decided to take a small break from grinding out hours online and put a good amount of time into poker study. It is important to sometimes step back, take an in-depth look at your play, be honest, and re-evaluate everything. I have built a huge database of my hands using HEM over the last few months and I haven’t put in the necessary time to analyze this database and appropriately look for leaks. All of this incredibly valuable raw data is just sitting there just screaming to be broken down. It is screaming: BAGLIFE LOOK AT ME YOU FOOL, FOR THE LOVE OF GOD LOOK! Yet I’ve made the fatal error of neglecting my personal analysis, I kept chugging away during the down-swing losing money even with the bonuses. Part of the reason for my chugging along was I knew how bad I was running, and I thought a massive amount of hands would balance the EV out. And sure I’ve been running bad, but just how bad? Well sadly I didn’t fully know. I should know the exact answers to questions like: if I ran normal EV (net zero) over this downswing, what would my exact win-rate be?
The analysis is tough based on a few factors, but I need to get a ball-park answer that is over 90% accurate for the important questions. I can specifically focus on my 100NL stats, which I have 82,000 hands logged. This is still a decent sample size to break down based on the stakes I will be playing at.
These are topics I may be touching on during upcoming posts. I’ve been running bad, but I know I’m not doing everything optimally just by glancing over some key stats on the HEM. The good thing is that I have a battle plan in place going forward. By the end of the weekend I will be a drastically different player; some major adjustments will be made. I can make them or bleed money with another inevitable swing.
Here are 7 leaks/adjustment/issues (A-G) that I will study before logging another hand online. It may take an entire night of studying, hell it may take 3 full nights:
A) Leak 1- My open raises are not fully polarized. I won’t probe into this; but I’ve decided to generally polarize my open pre flop raises from every position. This is an adjustment already in place going forward. This leak-plug will make me a less exploitable player.
B) Leak 2- Pre flop range analysis. One of my major weaknesses has been playing too tightly pre flop. I’m simply not playing enough hands pre flop to support the natural losses from the blinds. My VPIP% and PFR% need to increase from all positions when opening DRASTICALLY. Just by how much? Well this is a major area that I will be studying this weekend. I’m going to cross reference my opening pre flop raise % from each position against a composite average of the PFR% that the most winning short-stackers at my stakes have.
I have already picked out the 5 best short-stackers based on win-rate who I have logged the most hands against. Combined I have over 23k hands of theirs logged. I’m going to lump these 23k hands into an average and compare against my stats. I wish I had a larger database to compare against, but this isn’t an exact science. It’s simply a way I can estimate just how much I do need to increase my pre flop open range, VPIP, and PFR. For example, if the 5 pro short-stackers combined are opening with a pre-flop raise of 8% UTG, and I am opening with a pre-flop raise of only 2% based on my 80k hands played, then this would be a A HUGE LEAK that I must plug up immediately. This is an example of how I plan to cross reference for my benefit.
C) Review a massive amount of hands shown down and begin making guides up on how these hands play out. The hands reviewed should be from solid-short stacking opponents and myself. Study these hands at your worthless day job to improve. And DON’T just do this a few hours and stop. I should be doing this for a few hours EVERY WEEK whether I’m winning or losing.
D) Read fully a very well known short-stacking strategy thread that contains some nice articles. This will take a few hours since it is 20 pages long. I can also complete D at my job tomorrow if I have time. Not that I will instantly be changing my strategy to implement everything in the guide, but picking up one small idea could make it a worthwhile read. The chance of picking up that one small idea can never be underestimated.
E) Continue thinking about poker every-day. I have been in this mode for over a month now; especially when I’m not playing. I’m always thinking about poker. This is good, I will continue to let it consume my thought processes. I guess I can’t force E on myself, but I’m glad I am still thinking about the game each hour of every-day. This shows I am still passionate about improving. I refuse to restrict my drive to improve; it's not like I have anything better to think about.
F) Work out what you are willing to comfortably invest during the next month. During the month of May I’m going to set a max on what I’m willing to invest into online poker. This will be a specific $ amount that I just don’t want my checking account to fall below. If I take a big variance down-swing I simple won’t pull out any more money until the next month. I’m not going to keep making deposits while forcing myself to put volume in with too much money in play at once when I’m already bleeding money.
G) Embrace the two-headed dragon known as variance as a part of your life. How can one embrace such an ungodly evil creature as part of their life?
This is the most difficult challenge going forward. Variance is not something that can be analyzed and attacked. Attempting to slay this powerful monster with your pathetic sword would be futile. Similarly, you can’t defeat variance by heaving a chair across your room. If you threw a chair at a dragon it would only become angrier and mess you up more. The only choice is to accept that this creature is always lurking somewhere in the shadows. When the beast attacks and launches a massive fireball your once peaceful village will erupt into a raging inferno. All you can do when this happens is take the children (and most attractive women) and hide in the awesome under-ground tunnels until the dragon leaves. The dragon will always come, but he will EVENTUALLY leave to go harass another village or whatever a dragon enjoys doing in his spare time. But once gone you can simply rebuild as the village has been doing for generations; this is the way of life.
These are 7 topics that I will fully address before playing another hand. Hopefully I will have it all worked out by Saturday night where I can play another session. Extremely tired, but I’m going to aim for a post tomorrow on topic B (pre flop hand rankings).
Cheers,
-bag

