A Massive Decision Looming (6.29.2010)

The beach was once again amazing, but a tease.  Three days of absolute freedom only to be back to my corporate chains and failing poker goals.

I had a discussion with my brother (cell phone) when I was laying out at the beach Sunday.  It ended with: “I’m putting in my two week notice when I get back”.

And here I am, STILL HAVEN’T PUT IT IN YET.  By the end of this week I should have a bankroll worked out going forward for when I do quit.  Not only will I have a bankroll, I will have a back-up plan, and another back-up plan in case I need additional financing during an unimaginable downswing.  And even with all of these epic kick-ass plans in place I’m still understandably terrified.  My win-rate has yet to stabilize online.  There is no evidence that things are going to suddenly change for me.  Furthermore, there is no evidence that hitting Supernova will magically fix all of my "problems".  I think I’m in for a very tough road ahead when I do quit.

I have confidence that everything will stabilize, especially when I’m committing a full 40 hours per week to poker, but yeah I’m a little nervous to say the least.  It’s scary to think about going negative a month or two without that weekly corporate bail-out check coming in.

I think I should at least wait until I hit Supernova before I put in my two week notice.  That was my original plan and I should probably stick to it even know I have a bankroll worked out that will give me a legitimate shot to succeed.  It really comes down to an improved financial safety net against having my freedom back a week or two early.  What is more important?  That is the question I have to answer right now.  The safety net seems like a no brainer, but then again no one has experienced what I have during the last 2.5 years.

I’m going to aim to get all my finances in order and put in the two week notice next Friday, July the 9^th (I think).  This would make my last day July the 23^rd.  I would certainly have cleared Supernova by then.  And if my current format continues to go terribly I will have the bankroll to switch and adjust.  I can drop to 50NL full buy in multi-tabling and/or live low-stakes NL in Atlantic City.  I’m not going to sit there and bleed 3 grand a month online if things aren’t going well.  I’ll set a monthly stop point and switch formats if I need to.   

That’s really all I have right now.  This is a stressful, sometimes exciting, and somewhat terrifying time for me.  I’ll be looking to put in at least 20 hours of play this weekend, which should be completely feasible with Monday being a holiday.

-bag

Taking a Break and Regrouping (6.24.2010)

The last session I logged was Sunday, a lovely break-even in 6 hours of play.  Monday I was so tired that I could barely see the road when I was driving home from work.  It was around that point that I realized I don’t even feel entirely human.  The push to put in as much volume as possible on the virtual poker tables has consumed a large part of my life during the past 3 months and I have very little substance to show for it.  Sure my skill has improved dramatically.  Sure I’ve shown an awesome ability to get myself in extremely favorable situations and still lose.  Also I’m nearly 90% to Supernova.  But that doesn’t change the net loss I have experienced.  That doesn’t change the unthinkable waves of negative EV that have pummeled me into the dirt.  And is it really worth playing those extra 3 hours to risk almost crashing my car on the way home from work the next day because I’m so tired?  Of course not.  At this point I’m endangering my life.  Even if I’m lucky and just damage another car I'm probably still going to pay at least $5,000 to cover the damages.

And all because I decided to play 3 more hours the night before to accumulate an additional 650 VPPs.

This event helped prompt me to take a break and get my thoughts in order.  I decided to not log another hand until July 1^st.  During July I plan to resume going at the tables like an animal.  I plan to hit Supernova by mid-July.  In the mean-time I’m going to meet obligations at my day job, and do whatever the I want when I'm not at the office from 9a.m-5p.m .  I’m going to the beach this weekend, and taking a vacation.  I will be back Tuesday, so yeah.  This trip is going to be epic.  Several friends helped push me into it, and I decided I really want to have fun at this time.  The beach is just awesome right now.  This is Russian season.

(Russian season defined:  A period of 4 months where extremely attractive female students from Russia are granted temporary Visa's if they agree to work at the beach city that happens to be located 3 hours away from me.  They make minimum wage here, but if they take that loot back home they are ballers.  Some are in it for the experience, some want to stay in America, some want to simply take the easy way out; find a guy and stay in the U.S.)  Many may feel very alone in this strange land, it is our duty to make them feel welcome.

Logically putting this in perspective: Russian season is GREATER THAN (>) my job.  Any time I've gone out with a girl during the past year and I didn't like her enough, I would think to myself: "Whatever Russian season is just a few months away, it doesn't matter, don't waste your time."  It's moderately below poker.  Not even far below, MODERATELY below.  That's saying a lot.  AND I'M NOT GOING TO SHOW UP?  Screw that.

The day job is extremely busy right now.  If I put in poker sessions at night I wouldn’t be able to meet my daily obligations at work.  I hate my job, but they are paying me to complete a project so it is my obligation to complete it.  Wednesday night I left my cube-farm office at 9 p.m.  I looked at myself in the mirror when I got home later and asked: “do you really want to live like this?” The answer was not surprisingly a resounding NO.

I don’t want to be a corporate bitch.  I don’t want my livelihood to revolve around sucking up to the next sequential level of power to climb the corporate ladder.  Fuck the corporate ladder, I want to be my own man.  However, it seems poker isn’t self sustaining online to the point where I can just quit and instantly make more money.  Since even when I hit Supernova I really don’t have the confidence that I will run at least break even EV, it just hasn’t been going like that for me.  So what the hell is the next step?  Do I keep torturing myself with the day job and poker sessions until I see signs of EV balance?  Do I slaughter a lamb and offer it to the God’s of EV? 

Here’s what I do: calculate what I would make during the next three months at my day job (done).  Take this total, pull it out of your savings account and QUIT.  There problem solved, you earned the bull-shit money, now quit torturing yourself.  And while you’re at it enjoy the rest of your summer like a normal human being.  Play poker around 30-40 hours a week, but vacation whenever you want during the next two months if you feel the need too.  Go enjoy russian season Mon-Wed whenever you want.  Prime poker traffic is Wed-Sun anyways.  And that’s it GOOD-BYE TO YOU corporate.

With the small amount added from the next three months I will have a combined minimum:

A)  A $10,000 bankroll online.

This should be plenty to continue your current path online.  I think with this amount I won’t feel the effects of EV swings as much.

B)  A $5,000 live bankroll.

If things don’t work out online during a given month and you’re REALLY bleeding take a step back.  Go to Atlantic City and grind out live fishy low limit tables.  Do what you have to.  Sleep out of your car a night or two, I don’t care.  DO IT.  Make the money you need to feel as if you’re progressing for the month.

C)  At least $3,000 to live off of.

My expenses are at a minimum right now.  I don’t have to worry about rent or anything.  Also, the living expenses and live bankroll can have some over-lap here.  You may not need much of a live bank-roll if online is going well enough.  Still I could live off $3,000 for 5 months easily if I’m smart.

And what if it doesn’t work out?

Stop playing poker full-time, it’s as simple as that.  Cut your losses and move on.  Play part time if you want, but look for another career path and get damn serious about it.  I already have several back-up options.  I can get into the commercial Real Estate business with some family contacts I know.  Or pick up another office job and rot in a cube farm a few more years.  Or move to Manhattan and look for cube-farming opportunities up there.  Or get into Real Estate and coach tennis.  Besides, it's not like I don't have a solid degree.  I’m not close to giving up and considering one of these options right now, but it’s good to know that they are there.  It’s good to know that it’s not the end of the world if I fail at poker.  It's not the end of my existence.  I don't just vanish into thin air.  For the first time I’m realizing now that there is a possibility that I could fail.  This is really bad, but my confidence has taken a severe beat-down dropping around -$1000 last month even with eventually rake-back from the FPPs accumulated during that time.  I know deep down that this will change in time and I have to just battle through the storm, but it's sometimes tough for me to fully grasp. 

As long as I set stop points to the maximum I'm willing to invest online during any given month I think I will be just fine.  For example, this June I wasn't going to invest more than $2,000 to continue pushing for Supernova and I did not.  Even if I played the month out and dropped more money I would not have deposited another penny into my account.  I've heard from many regulars that getting to Supernova is the hardest part.  I think things will be much less stressful when I'm playing with weekly rake-back on my side.  Hoarding FPPs to eventually use at SuperNova status while short-stacking is not for the light-hearted.  You are seriously fucking with the God's of expected value when doing this.  I don't feel I'm a failure as a person because I've had to invest more money.  I'm playing without rake-back and I've ran extremely poorly even by HEM standards.  So either invest more money or waste FPPs at Platinum Star status to make yourself feel better, it's whatever.             

So yes I have much to think about, but I will be having one of the better times of my life on vacation this weekend.  My confidence is pretty shit right now with poker.  I’m confident in my ability and direction, but I’m not confident that I will EVER RUN anywhere even close to expected value.  A way to counter that would be boosting my bankroll and dropping to $50 full buy in.  I could even do this on the 100 NL 20-50 BB tables, so at least I’m getting more rake-back. 

Oh it’s officially 3:00 a.m, work should be fun tomorrow!  I stopped out tonight because it was my friend’s birthday and she’s a really important person in my life.  I was still happy I made the sacrifice even though I will be very miserable tomorrow.  At least I’m not drunk.  Well apologies for the lack of updates.  Perhaps I’ll have a good story to share from the weekend craziness.  If not I’ll be back at the tables soon enough.  I'm looking forward to a fresh July and a clean slate.

-bag

7 Hour Friday Session Commentary Down -$117 (6.18.2010)

10:00 p.m

Underway here with 12 tables up.

10:10 p.m

Table 2 I make an all in re-steal $20 push with Ajoff..  Opponent calls with A9 and HITS.

OH GO DIE IN A FIRE REALLY?

Only this fucking guy wins that hand.  He runs out a straight.  Wow dawg.  Ok relax relax relax relax.  I’m not self-destructing this early, no god damn way.  Keep making the right plays and expect the worst.  The worst will always happen, it always does, this session is no different.  Just keep making the right fucking plays.  CHILL DAWG.

16 TABLES ARE UP.  How about we get back to table selecting instead of typing a commentary that 5 people will end up reading?  Sound good?  A++ WOULD CERTAINLY RECOMMEND PLAYING 16 TABLES AT ONCE AND TYPING COMMENTARY AGAIN.

10:20 P.M

Screwed over on table 12 with a nice suck-out flush draw.   He checks the river for some ungodly reason when he completes and I check behind saving $8.  Great play.  You know it was so transparent I would have felt bad calling the final $7 even that committed.  It’s like going on a date with a terrible girl or something.  You think shes not going to try to ruin your life?  Really?  DO YOU HONESTLY BELIEVE THAT?   CAN YOU EVEN Pretend?  HOW THE HELL COULD YOU EVEN GET YOURSELF IN SUCH AN IMAGINATIVE MOOD?

10:35 p.m

30 minutes in and techno is blaring extremely loud.  It sounds amazing, but anything probably sounds amazing on 5-hour energies.  I could probably hire someone to stand outside my house and throw trash-cans against the wall and I’d get enjoyment out of the “refreshing new style” of music.

Just 3-bet a regular pre with 2 8 offsuit, he folds. GGGGG.  Mother fucker would fold your laundry for a year if you paid him a penny.  THAT’S RIGHT ONE PENNY he would do it.   He would stop trolling 24 tables 18 hours a day at my stakes and making my life slightly unpleasant. 

BRB 12 tables+ are flashing at me.   Ok no more commentary for an hour unless something really pisses me off, which will happen soon.

10:40 p.m

AK < KK all in preflop.

IT’S FUNNY BECAUSE MY LIFE SUCKS.

10:45 P.M

Just tripled up on table 8 with a flopped set and 2 maniacs pushing dogshit.  I’m like shocked they didn’t have a higher set or a straight, just unthinkable to me.

10:50 p.m

-$40 AA < 88 all in

I hit the set, but Vanilla Fish Town hit's a straight on the river.  Just wow.  I can't flop a top set of aces and hold.

ONLY ME.  A chair is going to go through a window really soon tonight.

How do you fucking lose that again?  It’s shit like this.

AK < TT all in pre -$60

IT’S FUNNY BECAUSE I LITERALLY CAN’T WIN A FUCKING POT.

11:05 P.M THOUGHTS. 

What would happen if any regular with over 1 million hands played those last 3 pots:

A)  They get all in pre with AK and miraculously hit an ace against someone’s KK.

B)  Their AA holds against 88 100% of the time.

C)  They win the coin-flip with AK

D)  They are already up well over $100.

11:06 P.M

AK > QQ ALL IN PRE.  +$60.

I have to push there on based his range.  Much needed rare coin-flip won.

11:20 p.m

QQ > 88 all in pre-flop.

Opponent decides to limp re-pop me all in from EP with 88.  One of the stupider things I’ve seen tonight.  Though normally the 8 hits so I guess it isn’t terrible against me.  I had him on AK + but I have to call and feel the situation out with such a strong holding.  This is generally why you shouldn’t hero fold to fishy players.  It’s an absolutely necessary call even with TT, I see this guy all the time and need to  know what he is making such a bizarre play with.  He’s more likely to be holding AQ or AK, and a coinflip isn’t the end of the world.  Well for me a coin-flip is generally an instant loss, but a normal player you know.

11:30 p.m

Taking a break tables are slow and I need a drink.  This 5 hour energy is not sitting well for some reason.  Stupid taking one 1.5 hours in, but I’ll make up for it later.  Not looking at the bankroll don’t care, guessing around even (yeah right).

12:00 a.m

Another $60 pot lost with 80%+ EQUITY.  Top two pair all in on the turn loses to mid-pair fucking 8.  River 8  go fuck yourself.  I hate this site so much.

That just really angers me.  Trying to not completely lose it here.  I will log out if I make a dumb play because of this, I refuse to, I don’t do that shit.  It’s in the past whatever, just keep making the right play so you can get unmercifully screwed every time.  Another spot I just have to hold and can’t.

12:20 a.m

AK < QQ all in pre.

Yeah like I would in a million years win that.  The guy is a regular so the pot is already decided before the board even runs out.

Double up on table 6 great maybe we can stop running like garbage for an hour.

Techno back on, I need something.  SOMETHING TO BELIEVE IN.

12:30 a.m

-$50 pot all in on the flop on table 1 after I raise 4x preflop  he calls with K 2s and goes all in on the flush draw.  TURN INSTANT FLUSH.  Exactly what I need when I’m running bad another miracle suck-out.  I’m beyond sick of this shit.  Always the biggest pots when this unthinkable garbage happend.  Another $50 pissed away.

12:50 a.m

AK < KK all in pre.

I hit the king, but he has the set.  Second time this exact situation has happened tonight.  -$40.   Again my opponent’s are going to get KK over my AK 3 fucking times in a row.  Even if I got a KK against AK it would rain aces.  An ace would leap out of the monitor with a bat and beat the living hell out of me.  Fuck my god damn life.  It’s like as soon as I see my pair I know it’s over and I lost, just another tease. Just stars screwing with me some more.  GOD FORBID HE HOLD ANY CARD COMBINATION OTHER THAN KK+.

AK = A9 all in pre SPLIT $35 pot

OF COURSE

1:00 a.m

Another massive suckout on table 4.  Top pair top kicker donked the fuck out by an idiot playing low-end straight draw.  RIVER STRAIGHT.  Will it ever end? -$40.

I’d be lucky to finish the night not down -$1,000 at this rate, so god damn sick.  Like usual, I can’t dodge a suck-out, I can’t win an 80% equity situation, I can ‘t win a fucking pot.  Go to the beach and log out? Seriously.

Ok ok I’m fine seriously.  Be cool wow.  Hi I’m baglife a raging tilt-box clown.  Who the fuck cares, make the right play.  Fuck the money.  I’ll burn through 10 grand if I have to whatever.

1:30 a.m

Idea’s for a quick upcoming strategy post (if anyone is reading this you can skip down to 1:45 a.m, these are just incoherent notes I wrote for myself), three very over-looked topics that I think I’ve improved a lot on, but want/need to keep in mind while playing:

1)   Varying your isolation PFR size against loose limpers pre-flop based on their Cbet fold % post.  (also based on your holdings.  JJ needs to be protected for example.  Based on the situation one factor could be more important than the other at different times).  Also lower open raises = less committed to firing a hopeless c-bet.   And if you don’t know the player I’d generally keep the raise small and fire if at all possible.

2)  Table selection based on factors other than VPIP% and Average $ per pot.  (Where you are sitting in relation to your opponents, recognition of regulars.).   Sometimes when I sit at a table the stats will look very good, but it’s all regulars.  This is obviously a fluke.  Conversely, sometimes I will come across a table with really bad stats, however it will be a bunch of players I don’t recognize.  This generally indicates a fluke in a good way (A GOOD WAY FOR YOU THAT IS). 

3)  Stealing blinds is an art.

1:45 a.m

AK > JJ all in pre.  A COIN-FLIP WON.  Don’t worry it won’t last long.

TABLE 12:  QQ< KK ALL IN PRE -$40.  THERE WE GO BACK TO NORMAL.   How many times have I lost that  situation holding KK in the past week?  Stop messing with me!  Fuck you all.  That’s right everyone involved: the site, the idiot player, the virtual cards, the virtual table, the virtual dealer, fuck EVERYTHING.

2:00 a.m

And one of the funnier things I’ve heard all night.  Seat 5 says on table 4:

“Hey Ronfar is your brother dealing?”

BAHAHAHA.   Ok Ronfar3 is one of the most well known low-limit grinders on the site.  No one runs better than him for such nitty stats, but he’s rock solid and has perfected bum-hunting.  Yeah basically the mother fucker’s brother has been dealing to him the last 3 million hands LOL.  It’s funny because his brother might as well be dealing, yeah I’m sure the site doesn’t favor this guy in anyway, let’s be honest.  He probably generates a few hundred grand in rake per year.  Don’t get me wrong I respect him, but I think it’s hilarious that even a casual player who’s probably played 100 hands can instantly recognize how lucky this guy really is.

2:20 a.m

AK > AQ all in pre.  Don’t worry it won’t last long.  It’s humanly impossible for me to win 3 consecutive moderately sized all-in pots.  Two is like god-like. 

TWO SECONDS LATER AA< 99 ALL IN PRE -$45.  What the hell did I tell you?  WOW HE HITS A NINE.  Only on stars.  Just jam any two fucking cards like an idiot and hit.  You know I might as well auto-fold AK+ after I win a decent pot online, it’s instant-loss no matter what.  I know bitch more: BITCH BITCH BITCH BITCH WHINE CHEESE WINE.

Did I actually expect to win that?  Are you kidding?  What the hell am I thinking.  At least I didn’t type shit in the chat box and flip out like usual.   This commentary is good because I can vent my anger, in a way it keeps me out of trouble.

IN A WAY THIS COMMENTARY IS MY FATHER.

OH BTW.  WOULD CERTAINLY RECOMMEND GETTING ALL IN PRE WITH AA AND LOSING TO 99 EVERY TIME.  A+++++ ALSO PORTABLE AND SHIPS EXTREMELY WELL! EXCELLENT! 

Ok BACK to table selecting so I can get all in pre with a monster and lose 20% equity some more.  That’s what I do baby.

2:40 a.m

QQ < AA all in pre.

Let’s catch the top 1% of our range against QQ+ some more.

AK  nut flush draw > High CARD KING? All in on the flop.  I’M certainly leaving my doubled up stack on that table.  I’m trying to brace myself for when I lose an enormous in the next few minutes.  We can’t have me winning more than two in a row.

WAIT FOR IT…………………..

KK > A9 all in on the flop holding against.  Over-pair holds.

OK WAIT FOR IT NOW IM REALLY GOING TO GET IT……………

AA > QK all in post.  I got tricky here and made a TAG look like an idiot.  Called him pre not wanting to fold out his range.  Perfect flop as he hits the king top pair/ solid kicker as I hold over-pair.  Then the Russian is unable to escape my all in check raise on the flop.  Owned.  And guess what man?  It doesn’t stop here.  I’m going to go to the beach later this summer after I quit my job to find your best looking Russian exchange student.   I’m going to date her and give her a free green card JUST SO YOU CAN’T HOOK UP WITH HER, even if I can’t understand a word that girl says, even if she completely screws me over.  TAKE THAT YOU SON OF A BITCH.  LAND OF OPPORTUNITY HOMIE.  WHAT NOW? WHO REALLY WINS?

Just kidding just kidding Russian’s are very fun A++.  But I’m taking one of your girls for reals. 

Seriously……

………

3:00 a.m

Taking a break and sitting out on all tables.  Damn I’m hungry and tired.  Going to get some food and fix one of those problems.   I’m sure my opponent’s will miss sucking me out VERY much.  Guess they have to find another rigged fool for 15 minutes.  I’m not looking forward to coming back, that was three pots in a row held with 70%+ equity at the end, something really bad is going to happen to me I’m sure.

3:20 a.m

Ok I’m back.  Slice of pizza and some push-ups, I’m awake again.  Blarring a Lady Gaga song that just streamed through.  Yes I’m a straight male and I’m blasting a Lady Gaga song.  Back to techno soon...

Here I am back WAITING FOR COMPLETE DISASTER……………

AQ < AK all in pre -$40  I called the final 16 over a blind fight.  Mistake there, I figured at least coinflip.   Like usual I expand my range one fucking slot and get hammered for it.  The guy is 3-betting 5% in 2.5k hands, he’s definitely making the same play with at least 88-JJ and AJ.  But yeah whatever that’s my luck, he just caught his top end.  Guess it comes back to “trying to do too much” and that’s doing too much for me.  Even know anyone else calls and they are at least a coin-flip.  Back to not trying to do too much and missing spots I need to hit!

3:50 a.m

QQ> AK all in pre.  Wow that’s a new one.

Currently have 14 tables up, 3 fast, and I’ve committed to two bum-hunts with doubled up stacks.

Crazy action just broke out all over the place.  Some lunatics seem to be coming out of the voids of nothingness at 4:00 a.m.

4:10 a.m

-$80 pot on table 2.  THE WORST PLAYER ON ALL OF MY TABLES COMBINED CRACKS MY AA PLAYING 2 5 OFFSUIT.  FLOPS THE FUCKING MIRACLE TWO PAIR.

AND THAT’S THE NIGHT.  No recovering from that; just IMPOSSIBLE.  So play on like a doomed tool-box some more and go to bed down 500 or whatever.

I am fuming.  I’d love to see RON fucking far lose that hand.  I want to stack up full and go after this prick, but won’t.  Stupid effing bankroll.

4:20 A.M

That pot may have fucked any chance for a decent night, but I’m not giving up yet.   I’m in a groove, there are awful players floating around, and I’m playing well.

5:00 a.m

Logging on all tables in 30 minutes.  I could force more, but I want to wake up at a semi-normal time tomorrow.  I’m pushing this because there are still some awesome tables.

5:20 a.m

I’ve trimmed it down to 8 tables right now.  The 9 worst tables (or best for me).  Four of them have waiting lists of 15+ with some pretty crazy action so hopefully I can get in a few profitable spots.  I also decided to say screw the time limit until a few break up.

5:40 a.m

Logging on all tables this is just isn’t going anywhere.  That’s the last time I see a bunch of normally psychotic players fold around to my AA tonight.  Time to end another incredibly disappointing session.  Damn I’m tired, it really hit me all at once.  I know who would have thought being tired at 5:30 a.m.  I’ve been up approaching 24 hours, but I did get a 2 hour nap in.

Session Overview:

Time:  7.5 Hours

Starting Bankroll:  $2,089.00

Ending Bankroll: $1972.00

Net Loss:  -$117

Hands:  5,170

VPPs cleared:  1,492 (Very nice and ahead of pace for the week.  1.5% closer to Supernova) 

Summary:

Yeah I’m disappointed it’s 6:00 a.m and a net loss again.  However, I was generally happy with the way I played.  My 3-bet % was still 1%-2% off from what I wanted it to be in those 5,000 hands, but I’ve been somewhat conservative to try to control variance.  As for my stats I was very happy, my VPIP and PFR seem to have expanded to a range that is acceptable to me.  I need to keep these numbers up.  The net loss really wasn’t a big deal.  -$117 in nearly 8 hours is pretty minor.  Also I ran -$150 in EV even by HEM standards, which is unbelievably atrocious.  This doesn’t even include ramming QQ+ into KK+ at least 4 times.  So I beat the EV by more than $30 which is always good.  Again I got myself in some great situations playing a full stack and going after people, it just didn’t work out for me.  If I win the three all in pre-flop pots with AA all in pre against 2 outs I profit for the session.  I won’t go into individual hands because I’m very tired and it’s boring, but ran bad like usual.  It has to turn around eventually from an EV standpoint.  Maybe in another year! 

The commentary was also a good change of pace.  It gave me a place to vent anger, which is better than taking my anger out on the tables and making border-line moves for big pots.  That’s a recipe for disaster when you already can’t hold an 80% equity pot as it is.  I can also compare a commentary from now to a few months ago which should be cool.  I think I’d be really surprised with regards to some of the concepts I’m focusing on now, as opposed to two months ago.

Anyways running some hills tomorrow in 95 degree weather, getting some sleep.  Night!  Or morning!  Oh man it’s 6:30….

-bag

Every Session Is the Worst Session of My life (6.18.2010)

As you may have drawn from the title: nothing is really changing for me on the virtual tables.  I crammed in a 4 hour session Tuesday and dropped $140, running -$120 in EV.  Then last night I played 5 hours and ended up down -$140.  I actually felt happy to only be down 140, I really ran terribly.  It’s hard to comprehend losing the amount of 80%+ equity situations that I have in the past few months.  It’s absolutely disgusting.  There is no reason that any normal person should end up with a net dollar loss after playing the session that I did last night.

I got myself in the right situations and my stats were fine, just kept getting hammered by unthinkable bullshit.  I do still have a 3-bet leak, but I can’t for the life of my figure out how to plug it.  But yeah it’s tough to open up your game and jam 20 more spots per thousand hands when you are bleeding, when you run -EV every session, when you lose every two outer, when you lose every suck-out, when you finally get the courage to aggressively JAM a range and the luck-box catches the top 5% of his range EVERY FUCKING TIME.  If you can’t hold KK over QQ all in pre how the hell are you going to jam with TT or AJ in a slightly EV spot and hold?  I’d love to filter out just how many two-outers I have lost vs. won in the past two months once the money is all in.  I’m sure HEM has a report to show these sort of numbers, but I doubt I will actually dig around and generate the report.  What is the point of dwelling on the past? 

Anyways my mind-set and philosophy is part of my problem right now with the 3-bet leak.  I feel I can still win by not pushing in the extra 10-20 spots per 1,000 hands, but not when I lose every single huge all in situation with dominating equity.  I still think it’s better to be conservative when you’re in a losing streak.  Don’t try to do too much, but always be looking for spots to expand.  When expanding my 3-bet pre-flop pushes it needs to be 100% based on ranges.  It’s tough because I don’t have a large hand database on many of the casual players, so it often feels more of a border-line push than it actually is.  Also the casual is going to call more, but you will be in a lot of 55-65% equity situations, which has huge variance.  The main strength of the 3-bet shove pre-flop is it FOLDS OUT HANDS, that is its purpose.  I definitely need to be 3-betting regulars as much (based on their ranges from certain positions) because they fold a lot.  They are less likely to call of 17BB with a marginal hand.

Anyways I don’t have my log with me at work, but these three hands sum up last night’s session:

AT < T4s all in on the flop.  -$80. My top three of a kind loses to an unthinkable runner runner flush.

Board is Th Th 3s

I don’t even remember the specific turn and river cards.  I shoved him $35 all in on the flop after he re-raised me and he instantly called.  The pot was already big and I didn’t want to get tricky here, especially with the flush draw showing.  His range was very bad.  I thought he was likely to be holding trips dominated with a weaker kicker, a flush draw, a poorly played over-pair, a mid pair, or a set of threes.  I just remember the turn was spade, and so was the river.  I was 80% equity to win even on the turn.  And its massive dominating spots like these where I never hold, and this is why I don’t show profit.

KK < QQ all in preflop.  - $60

TURN QUEEN.  This is very quickly turning into my signature move.  Get all in pre-flop with KK AND LOSE TO A BITCH MOTHER FUCKING QUEEN.  This nightmare scenario just keeps occurring, it’s like a sick joke.

So if I won those two pots I’m even for the session. 

KK < AK, QQ all in preflop.  -$80

The standard idiot-box queen on the flop.  So basically if I’m holding KK and there’s a queen anywhere on the board I INSTANTLY LOSE.  LOL @ my luck with KK vs QQ.  It’s just so depressing.

The 3 way with KK wasn’t even that bad.  There were two other two outers I lost all in preflop.  Also at least three other 70% equity situations lost.  So that’s my session yeah whatever.

Summary

I’ve already put in 9 hours during the week so that should take some pressure off me to play during the weekend.  I expect to put in at least 20 hours this weekend, but we will see.  The only plus is I’ve already cleared 2k VPPs this week, which brings me to 84,000 VPPS (84%).  I just have to stay focused and keep making the right decisions.  I’m brain-dead at work right now and not in a great mood.  I’ll be sure to throw in some more miserable updates from the weekend.  I’m sure I’ll continue losing 4 out of every 5 80% equity situations, I’d expect nothing less.

Schedule Today/Tonight

A)  Suffer through the rest of my day job like a zombie for four hours.

B)  Buy at least two 5-hour energies.

C)  Hell on earth commute: 1 hour.

D)  Destroy a nap when I get home: 3-4 hours.

E)  Hopefully get in a groove and play at least 6 hours tonight.

F)  Wake up and force myself to work out in 95 degree weather.

G)  Repeat only with more poker.

Updates and SN Time-Line Adjusted (6.14.2010)

The Week and Going Forward

I just got back from the beach late last night.  It was an awesome time.  I’m having some serious beach/Russian-girls/friends/partying withdrawal.  I feel bad that I did sort of bail out of my original plan to play as much poker as possible during my week off, but that’s life.  I went out Thursday night and I had some issues with a friend.  She ended up pissing me off very badly.  The situation helped push me to take a last minute trip when I woke up Friday morning, which I did.  Also I decided to not call her again for a long time, even know we have been friends for about 7 years.  We also hooked up a while ago and we are attracted to each-other, but I won’t get into this.  It’s a confusing situation that only I would be in.

Anyways, this was the first time I took off a week from the day job during the past year.  I didn’t miss it for a single minute.  So now it’s back to the grind, which is really depressing to even think about.  Then again my past amazing weekend should be used to remind me of what I am exactly fighting for.  I’m fighting for my freedom. 

Last week was not going so great on the poker tables, I’ve yet to find a win-rate.  However, there were some positives from the experience:

1)  I can see myself being able to handle playing full-time. 

Last week I played over 9 hours 6 days in a row and did not feel burned out. 

2)  I can handle the lifestyle. 

I didn’t mind going to bed at 5- 6 a.m, waking up at 1:00p.m, enjoying some of the day, and then playing poker again at night.

3)  I’m closer to Supernova.

82% there.

And some reasons for net loss on the tables:

1)  I was over-working myself without taking enough breaks. 

Playing poker 9.5 hours a day was a little much.

2)  A hybrid short-stack strategy is risky, and it sucks when you’re on the bad end of it.

Bum hunts were miserably failing, and some big lost pots added up which I discussed in previous posts.

3)  I was a little too aggressive based on my bankroll. 

I got involved in a lot of border-line spots shove 3-betting all in preflop.  Going forward I’m not going to try to do too much, but I will constantly be looking for spots to expand and improve.  When you’re running like shit it isn’t wise to push very borderline spots with a small bankroll.

4)  I ran VERY badly. 

It’d be nice to run BREAK EVEN EV for a week.  YES I’LL TAKE BREAK EVEN, my life is that messed up.  I can’t even stress enough how thrilled I’d be to run break even EV for 40 hours.  I’d probably throw a massive party.  BREAK EVEN EV PARTY!

5)  I put much of my play in during the tougher stretch of the week. 

I busted on the tables Sun-Wed.  Really the better traffic would have been Wed-Saturday.  If I could go back in time and do the week again it would have been smarter to go to the beach Mon-Wed, and play poker Thurs-Saturday.  I thought part of the reason I ran up $100 in less than 2 hours on Thursday was because horrible players were flooding the tables, even more so than usual.  Then again if I went to the beach Mon-Wed there would have been a chance I just stayed down there the entire week.  Doing the trip Fri-Sun at least forced me back since the day job called on Monday morning.

Adjusted Time-Line to Supernova:

Right now I stand around 82,000 VPPs, I’m 82% there.  Though if I keep running this badly I might not even be able to quit my job once I hit Supernova.  I’m hoping things chill the fuck out from an EV standpoint going forward.  But if my win-rate isn’t there once I hit then I simply have to construct my next plan of action.  It might even turn too dropping to full buy in at lower stakes. 

Week 1:  June 14^th ( Monday)- June 20^th (Sunday)

Mandatory Target: 5,000 VPPs.

Estimated Time: 24 hours of 12 tabling.

Notes:  This week is really going to suck.  I just teased myself by taking a quick trip to the beach.  The hardest part is going to be refocusing.  I have to get ready for a continued war.

Expected Total at Conclusion:  87,000 VPPs.

(EDIT 88k VPPs at 6/21/2010.  On pace)

Week 2:  June 22^nd (Tuesday)- June 27^th (Sunday)

Mandatory Target: 5,000 VPPs.

Estimated Time: 24 hours of 12 tabling.

Notes:  The targets mentioned are mandatory.  Hopefully at this point I will be mixing in some 16 table sessions during peak times to help pick up VPPs.  If I do this I can be working more efficiently.  However, I’m not forcing anything if things continue to go horribly.

Expected Total at Conclusion:  92,000 VPPs

Week 3:  June 28^th (Monday) – July 4^th (Sunday)

Mandatory Target: 5,000 VPPs.

Estimated Time: 24 hours of 12 tabling.

Notes:   In my first time-line projection I had a week set aside that would be used to map out a Supernova win-rate.  I think this is a little un-necessary.  I really only need to play about 10 hours at Supernova to see how many FPPs I would be earning.  Then I just figure out the win-rate I need to be at with the FPPs/expected bonuses combined.

Expected Total at Conclusion:  97,000 VPPs

Week 4:  July 5^th (Monday)- July 11^th (Sunday)

Mandatory Target: 5,000 VPPs

Estimated Time: 24 hours of 12 tabling.

Notes:  At the conclusion of this week I should be able to take my last 40-50 hours of play and map out a win-rate (hopefully?) going forward.  If I’m winning anything per 100 BBs I’m very happy.  If I’m playing break even I’m still making more than my day job.  If I’m slightly losing, I still might be ok as crazy as that sounds.  If I’m losing substantially then I will be forced to push back my corporate secession date and regroup.

This may be the time to put in a 2-week notice.  Or if things are going well fuck the two week notice and GOOD-BYE TO YOU.

Expected Total at Conclusion:  103,000 VPPS (Supernova hit)

Weeks 5 and 6: July 12^th- July 23^rd.

The last two weeks I rot in a dark shitty office?  Take this time to get focused and prepared for your next challenge in life.  Keep grinding out at least 5,000 VPPs during these two weeks, but at this point I won’t have to kill myself with two jobs, since my path is finally set going forward with the decision to quit.

July 26^th (My personal independence day):  Freedom, purpose, and passion now return to my life for the first time in almost three years.  EVERY WEEK, EVEN FROM MONDAY- FRIDAY.