Making Progress Online? (3/31/2011)

I at least feel like I'm making some progress online for once.  I finished the online week logging 29 hours and finishing up +$400.  The entire time I was pretty much 8-12 tabling.  I wasn't up a lot, but for me that was a good finish.  

Two sessions in particular jumped out at me.  Sunday I logged 11 hours.  The second session went from 12:45 a.m- 8:00 a.m (7 hours).  I didn't plan this 7 hour session I just got into a groove, felt like playing, and enjoyed myself.  I only finshed that session up +$65, but I played solid.

Tuesday I logged 9 hours.  The second session went from 11:15 p.m- 5:45 a.m (6.5 hours).  Again I didn't plan the session length.  I just got into a comfortable groove and kept playing.  I also finally logged a decent profit up +$380 during those 6.5 hours.  I peaked at about 14 tables during that session.

So I think the 7 hour and 6.5 hour unplanned sessions were indicators of progress.  This week was the most comfortable I've felt online this year.  I think my skill is improving weekly, I'm tilting less, I'm spewing less, and feeling all around more comfortable.

Last night I took a break and got drunk with my new roommates which was fun.  The one roommate left and two girls moved into the third bedroom.  So it's baglife in the main room, a girl in the second room, and two girls in the third room.  The girl in the second room is dating a guy who basically lives here also.  It's good to have more people around, it might keep me sane for a while.  I swear I've created a Jersey Shore house lol, good times.  Should be a really fun summer as long as poker goes decent.

I'm off to the casino to start the live part of my week after I finish this paragraph.  If I feel terrible I might cut the session sort and aim for more of a quota night (ok that never happens).  If I can win +$1,000 on Thursday and Friday combined I might take off Saturday and go out.  But most likely I will be grinding the usual Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

Live Results and Updates (3/27/2011)

(Warning: Long Post)

Summary:

Hours:  28

Net Profit:  +$760

Thursday:  -210 in 6 hours

Friday:  +$1570 in 14 hours

Saturday:  -$600 in 8 hours

Friday night:

Friday night was amazing.  I told myself that if I ever found a really good live game again, I would stay until it broke.  That's exactly what happened.  Started playing at 7:40 p.m, didn't leave the casino until 9:50 a.m on Saturday.  Won over $1500 in 15 hours, can't beat that.  Really I didn't win one pot over $500 that I can think of.  The profit came from a series of small to moderate pots.  Also the game was very enjoyable.  The other players were very cool people for the most part.  We ordered a pizza at about 6:00 a.m.  There was also no drama, very enjoyable.  I had fun.

Saturay night:

Saturday ended in disaster.  I was actually up +250 after the first 4 hours.  The last 4 hours I dropped -$850, ending the night -600.

I can pretty much thank a ridiculous cooler for my misery on Saturday.  I was on a decent table for a while and had about $1100 in front of me. 

6 handed with a game about to break I raise ATo UTG.  On a full ring table I fold this hand pretty standard, but yeah here we go.  Two callers,  pot is about $65.

FLOP:  A Q 7

Both the callers check, I cbet around $40, one caller.

Turn:  T

The one villain donk bets $80.  I think a while and make it $200 total.  He calls.  Pot is now a decent $550.  To me my turn raise was for VALUE, not to "see where I'm at".  I know I'm ahead of much of his range here including AK, AJ, A9, A8, A7, A6, A5s, A4s, A3s, A2s.  I'm beat by AQ, 77, or an extremely unlikely TT.

River:  Ace

BOARD:  Ah, Qh, 7s, Tc, Ad

Sweet I have a full-house.  Now I even beat 77 and TT, the only hand I'm worried about is AQ.  This is a casual player but he's been running hot as hell for about 4 hours.  A note on him would be he's certainly capable of stacking off with the second best hand in a huge pot.  I saw him commit over $500 earlier with trips and a moderate kicker so yeah..

Anyways, villain leads out the river $300.  I have about $800 left.  I elect to CALL, and NOT SHOVE. 

Of COURSE he turns over AQ.

So that $1100 pot lost pretty much ruined the entire night.  It downgraded the live week from awesome to barely tolerable.  It's amazing I can never be on the other end of such a bull-shit cooler.  I couldn't get anything going for the remaining 3 hours of the session.  It also including losing about $200 with AK (3-betting AK pre, then my c-bet gets check raised all in on the flop).  Which brings me to a possible leak I want to quickly disucss:

Leak?  3-betting AK to much when playing 2-5 Live:

With regards to playing AK on a live 2-5 table, I feel like I'm losing money 3-betting it during the past month which is crazy.  It doesn't help when every time I 3-bet AK I happen to run into a land-mine, but if I'm ever holding AA or KK it's fold-town every time.  This sort of thing may happen when you run like shit.  Anyways, AK is a great hand to semi-bluff with a 3-bet preflop.  This allows you to theoretically collect a lot of dead money without even seeing a flop.  Often I see someone open, two callers, and action is on me.  I immediately think: "DAMN I have to 3-bet this, collect the loot, thin down the field, protect my hand, etc, etc"

Now for the first time I'm almost thinking about making CALLING here a standard play live.  I'm beginning to think I have an unhealthy obsession with over-protecting this hand.  Sure it could be letting a few low pocket pair hands have a free pass to set mine me.  It could let another player holding 55 in pre-flop, ok great, he's going to fold on the flop 1 out of 8.5 times or whatever anyways.  And the one time he hits I'm not paying him off anyways. I'm only set mined if I stack off with a top pair, which will most likely never happen in this situation.  The opponent will make it pretty clear when they have a set in this situation. 

By calling with AK I give a fish the opportunity to get married to a hand like AJ on a A T 5 board which is most likely more profitable in the long run then taking dead money with a 3-bet pre live.  By 3-betting I often just take his open at best.  Also when I 3-bet there is a chance a regular behind me wakes up with a hand, takes by cbet, and then some.  Pretty much the only hands being 3-bet by regulars in this environment are KK+.  So great I call the open from MP with AK, and when the regular 3-bets his KK+ from the cut-off I've lost less money.

Also there are certain live regulars who will stupidly over-commit post-flop with a hand like KK, even on an A x x board.  Calling there EP open can allow them to make mistakes post when an ace flops and they hold QQ or KK.

Ok so let's look at a hand from Saturday that comes to mind.  If most regulars call my 3-bet pre they have QQ+ 100% of the time.  Not JJ not AQ, but QQ+ 100% of the time.  So casual player A opens from EP+2, casual B player calls MP1, I 3bet to $90 from MP3 pre, trappy asian regular cold calls out of position from the SB, both casual players fold.  Heads up flop is:

T, 7, 8.

Regular CHECKS.

I bet $110

Regular raises all in, I fold (he showed KK by the way).  I calculated that I needed about 25% equity to make a break even call here (had $300 left behind).  If he had QQ or JJ I could call because I'd have 6 clean outs and 24% to hit by the river (close enough).  But I folded because I thought his range was QQ+ with the check raise.  There is no way I can just put him on QQ or JJ there.  Even if his range is JJ+ (just to be imaginative), I still have only 18% equity there.      

Let's adjust to what my correct course of action should have been here:

BOARD T, 7, 8.

Regular checks.

I CHECK (knowing that by c-betting I'm probably facing an immediate all in check raise which I will not have the equity to call).  I might as well check back, take the free card, and try to bink an ace or king on the turn.  If the ace comes I can check back the turn and induce a river bluff.  If the king comes I can assume he probably has AA or QQ, but it's more likely to be QQ since I'm holding an ace blocker in my hand.  So I can snap a turn shove, or if he checks, check back and try to induce a river bluff.

But instead in this very situation on Saturday I fired the cbet.  I might as well have taken a 100 dollar bill out of my wallet and lit it on fire.  I much not like money much!  Thinking back I have no idea why I decided to throw out the cbet.  My guess is at 6:00 a.m I entered some sort of incorrect auto-pilot online poker response.  As in:

"ok fire the cbet against the average regular, it's a 3-bet pot and you have to fight for the dead money, especially for the times when he will waive the white flag with AK or AQ".

"It's never a bad idea to fire the c-bet heads up in a 3-bet pot here".

But this isn't online.  We have a trappy asian regular in the slums of a live casino at 6:00 a.m cold calling my big 3-bet out of position pre-flop with casual players left to act.  The action said "I have QQ+".  Against this villian I think it's always a bad idea to c-bet the low board here.  Lesson learned hopefully.

This was just an example of where I thought I completely misplayed AK live.  I think I'm 3-betting it to often where I could get more value in certain situations by smooth calling it.  This is something I will keep in mind during the next week.

Back to the Live week:

+760 is tolerable, but it was a very disapointing finish considering what I was up Friday.  I should have just played online Saturday after being up over $1300.  But I had to piss half of that profit back the last 4 hours of Saturday.  However, I don't blame myself on the cooler hand, just a shit final 4 hours.

Online this week (As of 3/29):

I barely kept up the requirements for Supernova with only 3 days remaining in the month.  The week is going terrible as usual, +$70 in 19 fucking hours from Sunday-Monday.  I got into a groove Sunday and logged an unexpected 7 hour session from 12:45a.m to 8:00 a.m.  I felt like I was playing good but finished up a minimal amount.  I want to play at least 10 more hours.  Maybe 8 Tuesday and 4 on Wednesday.  If I don't like the way things go tonight I might just play live on Wednesday since I'm ahead of pace with my online volume this week.

-bag

Another Stressful Day in Paradise (3/25/2011)

The day started off as a bit of a train-wreck.  I had a huge fall-out with the girl I've been bitching about for months now I guess.  It started off as an argument before it just exploded into absolute chaos.  I actually feel better about it now.  At least it's some sort of closure.  It's amazing I cared so deeply for such a terrible person.  She really deserves the fucked up situation she has created for herself.  Anyways, OK it's 100% over and I know what a loser piece of shit person she really is.  Her cute accent and attractive body is really the only thing she has going for her.  I have nothing to feel bad about.  I'm completely free, but also alone.  I'm sure I'll have days when I miss the hell out of her, but the closure is definitely better in the long run.

I played about 6.5 hours of 2-5 tonight and finished down -$210 (less than half a buy in).  Around 12:40 a.m the girl actually called me during a hand and the conversation goes:

Bag:  "Hey what's up"

Girl X:  "I'm at your house are you home?"

Bag:  "Um no I'm at the casino"

Girl X:  "I'm outside your house with your Dvd"

Bag:  "???????? uh ? No but you can just drop it off at the door"

Girl X:  "Ok maybe next time"

Yes it made total fucking sense to randomly show up at my house with some stupid DvD i let you borrow.  I guarantee the necklace I bought her won't be dropped off with it hahaha.  She could at least drop that off so I can use it as a future present for the next girl who comes along and attempts to ruin me.  Like I care about the bullshit fucking DvD.  You know what why don't you just throw it in the trash and fuck off?  If she would have cared half as much about me as she did returning some b.s Dvd it wouldn't have got to this point.  I get it you hate me and want to drop it off and never talk to me again,

Cool Story [x]

Would Recommend [ ]

I mean she could have just dropped it off outside the front door if it was really that important?  Or I'm pretty sure one of my roommates was home.  Just knock on the door, that would take what 20 extra seconds?

Anyways I was just getting back into things tonight live.  There was one really big situation that I sort of fucked up.

Situation:

EP dude opens.  I'm dealt pocket aces (Ah As) 3-bet to $45, two callers, including the EP opener.

FLOP:

Qs 2h 9s

Pot is now $130.  Villains both check.  I c-bet to $85, one fold, the EP opener of course shoves all in.  I didn't have this all calculated out exactly at the time, but at this point it was my remaining $330 to win $990.  I only needed 33% equity to break even with a call here.

I thought about it for a while.  I didn't have a lot of information on this guy, but I knew he had somewhat loose tendencies pre-flop.  I saw him in a decent hand with 56 and ended up commiting a good amount of money with trip 5's despite the possible flush.  However, he did call my 3-bet pre-flop and I had been playing very tight.  I'm either putting him on a draw or some sort of crazy move, I can't decide.  My thought process was something like ok you are pretty much flipping or he has you demolished.  I ended up respecting his raise far to much, it just screamed set.  At the moment I was thinking something like 50% of the time he shows up with a set, 20% he has AQ, 20% a draw, 10% air.

I tanked, and ended up folding.  He showed the (Ks 2s).  At the time I thought I was at least 65% to win there, a really bad fold that cost me.  I stoved it when I got home and I was actually only a 54% favorite to win.  Still a clear call with the fact that I only needed 33% equity to break even.  I think I lost track of the pot size somewhat.  I need to be thinking in terms of "Ok what is my equity here".  Next "about what % equity does my hand have against his range?" 

I will say it was a pretty ballsy play on his part.  In tough situations live it always seems like the opponent's range is WEAKER then I think.  This was the online bull-shit coming out in me.  I sensed something was up, but I could not pull the trigger for some reason.  As a rule of thumb against an unknown in a tough spot live, I almost always seem to have more equity then I think I do at the moment.

I incorrectly assigned his range there.  Sure I probably would have been sucked out anyways, but I would have been happier being sucked out knowing that I made the correct play.  DAMNIT!

Well it's back to the grind tomorrow.  Trying to focus on putting some serious volume this weekend.  If I ever find a good game I don't plan on leaving for a long time.  My live volume has been shit during March and that is certainly going to change.  For this weekend I'm just going to keep a few things in mind:

1)  Focus on playing a lower-variance style, especially at the start of sessions.  The start should be tighter as you feel the table out, get targets, and strategize to exploit specific weaknesses.  You will give up some slightly EV spots being tighter, but you can make up for it with RAW hours played.

2)  Be relieved it's over with the girl.  Now you can focus on grinding and survival.  You have closure.  It's now out of your control so there is no need to beat yourself up over it.  You put yourself out there, loved someone, they turned out to be a piece of shit anyways, and it collapsed in chaos.  NEXT!

3)  Always be keeping track of the pot size in your head, every single hand.  When you face that all-in shove you should easily be able to say "My break even % needed to call is X,  does my hand have at least X% equity against his range here?"

4)  In a very tough spot live against an unknown or fish your hand ALWAYS has more equity then you think.  The opponent isn't a mega-nit 20 table low-stakes grinder here.  It's more often a casual player bumbling around aimlessly.

5)  Always be keeping table selection in mind.  Never settle for a bad table.  Please drop to 1-2 before you settle sitting with 6 regulars.

6)  HAVE FUN! 

So I'll save these 6 points in my phone as I go forward this weekend.

-bag

Feeling Lousy: Updates (3/24/2011)

I haven't really updated much this month for whatever reason.  I just got back from a vacation on Monday, so that chopped out a live week of volume.  The vacation was great, had an amazing time.  I thought it would clear my head, I guess it did until I returned to Atlantic City.  I soon return and quickly it's back to reality.  Just finished up another waste of life online week.  From Monday-Wednesday down -$220 in 20 hours.  I officially can't beat 50NL, that's how bad I am at poker.  Really running out of ideas fast online.  I mean if I can't get something going soon there will come a point where I seriously have to debate changing my path drastically.  As in mostly cutting online from my schedule.  How long can I sit there and break even or lose money online before I have to switch to all live?  I mean even if I grind 1-2 on a weekday I can surely make $15 an hour. 

I'm putting around 20-25 hours per week online and no matter what the fuck I do I can't seem to figure things out.  I see spikes of progress, but nothing ever pans out.  I study, I put the time in, I try to focus.  Yet nothing matters.  Also the going back and forth between online and live every week could be hurting me.  The games are two completely different animals.  Also I'm playing online at the worst volume times, Monday-Wednesday, meh whatever.  I think a better strategy would be playing online one week, and live the next, etc, etc.  But I don't really have that luxury since I have no evidence I can grind out $15 an hour online, even at 50NL.  So playing a full week online seems pretty stupid if I'm not even confident I can beat the games steady.  Maybe the weekends would be much different, but still.

Another excuse: my head is just NOT there during some of these online sessions.  It's just consumed with going through this break-up with this girl, she has fucked me up so much.  I'm absolutely miserable about it.  I think I'm better off playing live more for this reason.  At least live I'm around people more which gets my mind off of it some.  But online at some point my thoughts take over:

"Dude forget about her, it's never going to work out anyways, this is where you end it NOW.  Don't call her back next time.  There's no point you haven't even hung out in two weeks anyways.  Man the fuck up."

"Forget her man up, don't text her back next time"

"She's obviously just fucking with you at this point.  She only stays in touch with you to fuck with your head.  It brings her pleasure, she knows you still want her, but she could care less.  Something else is obviously going on.  She must be talking with her ex or something, I don't know."

"I seriously wish I could go back in time 2 months ago, for only a few days.  Then I would be happy like I was then.  Girl X would still be the girl I fell for, she would be passionate about seeing me, care about my life.  My head would be clear."

But she's not the girl I fell for.  The girl I liked is trapped deep within the chaos of a fucked up situation she has created for herself.  It will never be like it was. 

And despite the logic I still struggle every day.  It's not like I'm a bad looking guy and who can't find someone else.  Last Monday at the club I made out with a girl most of the night long time, she was very into me.  That didn't pan out, she was just visiting for spring break.  Then in NY a similar situation (different girl).  But I return home and it doesn't matter, she lives in Manhattan.  However, it doesn't matter.  I still can't get my mind off Girl X. 

And I mean can I really be serious?  I have to worry about my survival.  I have some SERIOUS SHIT to worry about.  I'm taking a shot at 2-5 right now, if I down-swing it could be back to 1-2 for several months (or god knows how long).  I play online 20 hours + per week but can't even beat 50NL.  But I'm letting shit with girl X consume me, it's eating me alive.  Why can't I get over this one....

So tomorrow it's back to 2-5 full buy-in.  The next few weekends are going to be an absolute war, but that is my life.

-bag

Updates (3/17/2011)

Decided to post a quick updates on how everything is going. I'm on a bus to Manhattan, so this is being typed from my phone. The quality may not be great but hey I have some time to kill. I decided to give myself a "spring break" and skip town a few days. My head is in need of sone serious clearing. Live poker really can't go much worse right now. I'm on a 170 hour stretch of 2-5 play with about 1k profit. My strategy has been flawed buying in half stack in an attempt to control my bankroll. But not all is lost, I haven't lost money and I have 170 hours of 2-5 experience. I won't go into how bad I'm running. I decided to buy in a full $500 100 bb stack at 2-5 going forward. No more half stacking b.s. From here out its either buy in full at 2-5 or drop to 1-2 if i don't want to play that big. I have a bankroll of about 13k set aside for just poker. This is a stressful time. My roll is massive for 1-2 but I'd like a little more for 2-5. A $20,000 40-buy in roll would be ideal, but not everyone has 20k sitting in a box ready to play. I have 26 buy INS freed up for 2-5 right now. I've decided to play out unless My roll drops below 10k and I feel uncomfortable. I play a very low variance style and it would be mind-blowing to even drop 5 straight buy-INS, but yeah crazier things have happened. Like the girl I was dating that tells me 1.5 months later she's pregnant with a kid from the last guy and she just found out. Now that shit is CRAZY. Like being a corporate slave 3 years before breaking off and moving to AC area on my own. CRAZY! Anyways, sure I could grind out 1-2 for $15-$20 an hour until I get my roll to 20k. But I am burning to establish myself at 2-5. I can beat these stakes and there is more money to be made. I didnt make this massive life change to grind out 1-2 for a year or two, that was not my plan. If I get doomswitched live so be it, but using my roll to grind 1-2 with 65 buy-INS would seem VERY inefficient to me. These next few weeks seem quite important at the moment. Online: I really have improved a lot from where I started. I've been logging sessions and making progress each week. Eventually I might have to choose to be more online or live each week but I like doing both at the moment. Online is where I improve and live is where I earn my living expenses (ok with the exception of the last few weeks). So after my spring break it's back to war on the tables. If youre like me and haven't had a spring break in years or decades, take a few days and give yourself one! That's all for now. I'll keep updated on the 2-5 progress in the upcoming weeks. Or 2-5 failures! Guess we will see. As you can tell I have no confidence things will ever go smoothly again. It can happen after running very badly over 150 hours live. -bag