Updates, Corporate, and Life (5.13.2010)

Haven’t been in much of a writing mood of late I suppose.  That combined with being really busy, and not putting in solid sessions since the weekend.  I've only logged 5 hours this week and have ran like unspeakable shit like usual.  However, I plan to put in at least 6 hours tonight so I will hopefully be able to throw in an update or two sometime during the next few days.

I’ve decided to go out really hard Friday night for a b-day celebration, so tonight will replace my normal Friday night session.  Even know Friday is going to be a crazy good time, I feel like half of Friday is me apologizing to my friends for not being around.  I set a place I will be at all night, which gives everyone a chance to see and catch up with me.  I’m looking forward to catching up and having a great time.

In other incredibly boring news my hard-drive is in the process of failing on my primary machine, so that has a chance of completely screwing up poker this weekend.  I already ordered a new one to put in a few days ago, but I’m not sure exactly when it’s going to arrive.  I’m terrified it’s going to fail during a big session.

Corporate Interview:

I’ve been interviewing with my company internally during the last week.  At first I nearly forget why I even bother going on interviews.  Sometimes I just apply for positions, and they will get back to me a month or two later.  If poker goes well I fully expect to quit as soon as possible, but I guess it’s sort-of a “why-not” situation while I’m trapped here anyway.  During the past few months I’ve actually had some fun screwing around on interviews because I usually don’t care what-so-ever.  I usually see right through their bull-shit and know right away if it’s even worth going after.  If they ask me a stupid question I will happily throw it right back in their face.  I enjoy responding to questions!  Some examples:

Q1:  “What is the most unfavorable characteristic in relation to your current position?”      

I’d have to say the lack of NATURAL SUNLIGHT is the most unfavorable characteristic to me (while stopping myself from commenting on the poorly designed sentence).

Q2:  “And what would you say your biggest professional weakness is?”

I enjoy the humor in being brutally honest.

Q3:  “Hmm you graduated from X University, I’ve never heard of that before…..”

THAT’S BECAUSE I MADE IT UP!!

(Ok the school I graduated from changed its name a few years back, which is confusing.  But I mean isn’t this one of the first things you would look up when reviewing someone’s resume????  Have you ever Googled something in your fucking life?  What would you say you here again?  Do you not confirm that people are putting real schools on their resume before you agree to waste your time interviewing them?  But I forgot that’s one of corporate's biggest “professional” strengths: WASTING EVERYONE’S TIME.)

Q4:  “Couldn’t help, but notice Poker Theory on your resume…..”

My Answer:  Yes it’s certainly a hobby I’m passionate about and have devoted a lot of time too (while thinking YEAH it’s my only chance to escape this bull-shit, if it doesn’t work out I may have to prove myself to clowns like you my entire life for shit pay and zero freedom).

But anyways, I will say that the job I have been currently interviewing for is the most promising position I’ve come across during my 2.5 years here by far.  I had 4 interviews Wednesday that lasted 4 hours total.  I would give myself a 2.5/5 on the first interview, and a 5/5 on the other 3 interviews.  I stumbled a little on the first one, but that’s the way it is.  It will probably cost me any sort of chance, because I’m sure there are candidates who nailed every interview and not just 3 out of 4.

The team leaders were alright and it didn’t seem like a bull-shit position; the group is Finance and does a lot of bottom-line analysis across the board.  The group also seems to be passionate about getting the right individual in place, and giving him a chance to prove what he is worth.  I heard from an internal source that they have it narrowed down to 20 applicants (including me) and are looking to fill 8 positions.  I also heard half of the 20 are outside applicants, and they are leaning more towards hiring internal candidates who aren’t completely clueless.  In a week these types of positions get hundreds of qualified resumes from the outside partially because the economy is just that bad right now.  There are people out there (especially my age) who would kill for an opportunity like this.

A year ago I would have been absolutely thrilled to even be considered.  This would have been just what I was looking for, an opportunity to get my foot in the door with a serious department.  I would have been willing to bust my ass for years to make a name for myself in the company and move up the ladder.  Now it just doesn’t matter as much to me.  I’m sort of done with this place either way.  I know the sacrifice and effort I would have to put towards this position, and honestly my heart really isn’t there.

I’ve been over this before.  I see the time and sacrifice that would be ahead, and the end result DOES NOT add up to me.  So let’s say I give 2-3 more years of my twenties to this place?  Really?  Is that what being 25-28 years old is all about?   Maybe by 28 I can be raking in 50k+ per year if I completely give my soul, besides it’s a “GREAT” company!  Maybe by my thirties I can be making 80k+ if I remained extremely focused and was extremely lucky!  But the more I advance here, the more trapped I become.  The more I will be unable to survive without the parasitic corporate relationship, and this scares the living hell out of me.  And besides the money what else would I be sacrificing the best years of my life for?  Absolutely nothing that’s what.  And I see no other benefit besides the blood money.  I wouldn’t be doing what I was really passionate about, and I still wouldn’t have the freedom I want, so what is the point of entering such a doomed situation?  If I had to support a family this would probably be a drastically different discussion, but I don’t have a family.  A family is a laughable concept for me right now.  I can’t even imagine having a GIRLFRIEND right now.  How can I make someone else happy when I myself am not in the least bit happy with where I am in life?

And that’s part of the reason my last serious relationship failed, but at least I understand that now.  We loved each-other, but it was just impossible from a stand-point of even our goals (Mine being finding my freedom and purpose, while hers being a very serious relationship and a family).  And do I regret not committing 100% of my time to a relationship and a 9-5 job?  It would be a nice life for many, certainly a stable life, but not a life I would truly be happy with.  Sometimes I will miss certain aspects, but regretting it I absolutely can’t.  Yes I sometimes miss a cute girl wanting me, caring about me, and thinking about me every day.  I sometimes miss the comfort of meeting up for a night.  However, I don’t miss the impossible balance of a relationship, real goals, and a full time job.  I don’t miss the obligation of having to commit X amount of time to one person each week, or it’s unacceptable.  I don’t miss the bull-shit and games.  I don’t miss having to choose spending time on my girl-friend, my friends, or my goals; and my choice being taken extremely personally by you know which group.

Anyways the JOB.  I’d rather be putting my soul into something for ME, not a corporation whose purpose is to suck-dry and exploit me for profit (like the last two years +).  Besides there are plenty of poker players out there right now who are my age, not any smarter, not any more talented, and are making well over 50k per year with the freedom they want.  They just happened to be in the right place at the right time and worked towards their goals.  I will not be lured by the wrong carrots here and I’m keeping my priorities in mind.

That being said if they did throw out a laughable offer of 40-45k per year I might accept the offer, but plan on leaving as soon as I figure out poker.  I’m not sure if it would even make sense to accept an offer if I was leaving in a month or two, but it may be a back-up plan until I find my stride online.  I’m looking at the worst case scenario, what if I bust my ass playing poker the next month or two and I’m still not earning an average of more than my day-job?  Then what?  Well the “what” would boil down to three choices:

A)  Give up on poker and sell your soul to corporate.  Also, start looking to start a family! (yeah right)

B)  Keep a corporate job to fund online poker until it takes off (no matter how long it takes).  If this is my choice then accepting a job offer wouldn’t be so bad. 

This is where I am in life right now.  This really isn’t an area I have a time-line on.  I’m hoping for a 1-1.5 months, but at the same time I have to look ahead if things are going really bad.  What if it took 4 months?  What if it just NEVER happened for me?  Then I’d feel pretty foolish if I didn’t accept that job offer.  Yeah my life would suck with the job, but it would suck even more being an unemployed LOSING poker player.

C)  Set a stop date to quit regardless and move to Vegas.

My confidence would be pretty low not getting online to the point I knew was possible.  But I do have confidence to beat the live games, so this is always something to think about.  Grinding it out live for a living would be better than a day job.  It would suck being alone, but hopefully it would push me that much harder to hit my goals.  Besides, I’m alone now I just like to kid myself.  My friends, family, etc, etc would miss me when I left, but their lives really wouldn’t change a whole lot.  I think they would get over it quickly!

That turned into a really long post and I did not expect that.  But it’s my blog so I can ramble all I want.

-bag



Wednesday Session (5.5.2010)

Time:  5 hours (8:45 p.m – 1:45 a.m)

5-Hour Energy:  1 Bottle:

Tables: 12

Net Loss: -$184.00

Hands Played:  3,197

Music of Choice:  TRANCE

WENT to Sleep:  4:45 a.m (5-hour energy plan gone horribly wrong)

Woke up for the day job @:  7:00 a.m

Schedule:  SCREWED

Mood:  Moderately unstable.

Well it didn't take long to start playing 12 tables again.  Everything came back at once.  Though the adjustment's were in place it really didn't matter much during these particular 5 hours.  I still lost enormous suck-out hands that I should have held in a few spots, which demolished any chance I had.

So uh how did I lose another 9 buy-ins?  For starters I will say I felt comfortable playing tonight.  I thought I played well but ran like shit the entire 5 hours.  I remember at the end of the session being scared to look at my ending bankroll thinking, OK JUST DON’T BE UNDER -$200.  I felt like I was down around -$200 so I just accepted and sort of dealt with it.  This is the least angry I have ever been losing -$184 in 5 hours, so I guess that’s an improvement?  I might as well get used to it sometime, this has been going on well over a month.

HEM claimed I was down -$102 in EV for the session, that is sadly pretty normal for me.  Also there were a few brutal coolers that HEM didn’t take into account, so I ran worse than -$102.  The session actually would have been much worse if I didn’t pull off a bum-hunt and slam someone for an +$85 pot.

So some hands:

QQ < 99 all in preflop.  -$44

81% to win there preflop.  Or on Pokerstars I mean 10% to win there pre flop.

KK < AQo all in preflop.  -$44

I was 72% to win there, but I absolutely expected to lose that.  I was up against a regular short-stacker who plays 24 tables at once who has some serious profit.  I expected to lose not because he was better than me, but because he runs like a God and sucks me out in every situation like this.  It’s like he is rewarded on bull-shit plays like this because he’s played a few million hands or whatever.  It’s unbelievable how many leaks he actually has.  So open 2x BB to $2 pre on the button.  He then pops me $6.50 pre-flop from SB with AQ off.  The BB folds, and I then push to $35 all in pre.  He instant calls the final $15.  It must be nice to have an unlimited bankroll and the support of Poker-stars.  So the clown flops TWO QUEENS on the flop as expected.  Turn ACE, ok I get it AQo is a better hand than KK all in pre.

QQ < AJ and AQ all in pre.  -$35.

74% to win there pre-flop, but I just can’t hold to save my life.  Flop comes ace and I’m dead in the water.

Notice these first three suckouts already add up to a net  $120 lost.

JJ < AQo and AJo all in pre flop.  -$57.

RIVER COMES QUEEN.  The AJ wins with a straight!

AK < TT all in pre.  -$44

AK < 88 all in pre.  -$36

 TT < QKs all in pre.  - $30

Do you know what would happen if I called an all in pre flop bet with QK suited?  A TWO HEADED DRAGON WOULD SMASH THROUGH MY WALL, DEVOUR ME, AND BURN MY FUCKING HOUSE DOWN.

JJ < 99 all in pre.  -$17. 

82% to win pre flop.  These $20 2-outer suck-out pots add up.

AQo < QQ all in pre-flop. 

Holy shit it’s a hand I was behind pre-flop!!!  Was only 30% to win there.  I thought he was making a move on the blind, it’s a standard push there with AQ.  This guy was a complete rock, but even rocks have to make moves on the blind against opponent’s who steal often.  Also, I thought my equity was at least 40% based on his range.  But I could have mis-read his range of 3-betting 8%.  I only had 200 hands on this guy tracked, but tough hand either way.

JJ < 45s and QQ all in pre. -$68

Must be nice getting dealt QQ in that spot.  This is the kind of bs that HEM doesn’t calculate in it’s EV.

77 < 9Ts all in pre.  -$20

Call a $10 all in open raise pre with 9Ts, why not?

AK < AQ off and 77 all in pre.  -$50

Can I win a pot?  He flops the seven.  Both of you can go to hell seriously.

QQ < KK all in pre.  -$40

Absolutely nothing I can do there.  I pushed his open all in, and felt pretty confident based on his 42% VPIP.  Again please go to hell getting dealt KK there.  So so sick.

99 < KK all in pre.  -$33

I opened here on 3 limpers $15 all in pre.  But of course some  clown-box limped behind with KK.  Un-real.  This one pissed me off, I actually think I typed something to him along the lines of “GH, now for the love of God can you stop playing poker?”

TT < AA all in pre.  -$30.

AKs < AA all in pre.  -$40

I spiked a king, but oh wait he has the usual AA in that ridiculous spot.

KK < 22 all in on the flop.  -$25

LOOK IT’S A TWO!!!! NICE HAND!!!

Also lost around -$30 on two combined pots calling all in on the flop in semi-bluff situations based on opponent ranges.

(will discuss later in the post)

So If I win the three hands where I’m 70%+ to win, have one less ridiculous cooler, and win one of the races above I’m suddenly a profit for the session.  This is the way things go when you short-stack this many tables at once.  The variance is insane, and you need a massive roll.  You think running like I did above is bad?  Imagine running like that for 14 out of 15 sessions; that is exactly what you have to be prepared for.  It is an absolute war.

That being said I played fine, I’m just trying to regroup for the weekend now.

Other Topics:

Why bad LAG player's may often prefer the 20-50BB tables?

I think the biggest reason the casual loose aggressive player enjoys the 20-50BB tables is they can run up a stack and feel protected by the 50BB buy in cap.  So a terrible player can run up a stack to $150, but a "pro" can only buy in $50 to go to war with them.  On the standard 40-100BB tables there isn't this sort of protection.  It's just one hand and they are basically destroyed.

Stars has a 20% reload bonus up to $500 until May 10^th I believe.

I plan to deposit this weekend and take advantage of this.  This is great timing since I was planning to deposit at least once this month anyways.  Also, I could really use the $100 bonus during this brutal stretch.  Anything helps.

I'm not sure it's logical from a business sense, but I commend Stars for the reload bonus.  Despite the fact that idiots like me are going to run thousands under EV and still deposit anyways.  I'm curios if more money is deposited because of the bonus, or it just seems like it because some players just wait for a reload bonus to come around.  I have a feeling player's will generally deposit if they want (whether a deposit is offered or not).   However, I understand that it's such a competitive industry that something has to be done to please customers.

Lost two decent pots calling down in semi-bluff situations on the flop based on opponent’s ranges.

During my session I lost two decent pots where I called an all in shove over my cbet on the flop.  Both times the opponent had a very loose range and happened to catch a pair in the right situation against my missed AK. 

I think one of the most under-looked skills to short-stacking is facing a semi-bluff all in push over your C-bet on the flop.  This is a very profitable situation if you can make a read.  However, if you fold to much you're losing money in the long run.  You will often find yourself in a position where you only need around 35% equity to call based on the opponent's range to make the play profitable.  An exception would be a weak-tight player who is generally only making a move with a made hand.

That's all for now.  Another bad session.

-bag.

Regrouped and Ready (5.4.2010)

I still have yet to log a hand since a session last Wednesday or Thursday (I honestly can’t remember the specific date).  The entire weekend and Monday night I spent doing some pretty intense analysis on my game.  I think I’ve found some massive areas where I can improve, and I’m now looking forward to playing during May.  That being said if I ran average EV during my horrendous March/April stretch I would have had a slight net loss, and with bonuses a net gain.  And the EV doesn’t tell the full story; I really know it was a lot worse because of coolers.  However, I need to be playing with a MODERATE NET WIN at least.  And I feel the work I put in over the past 4 nights will help get me there. 

Somebody asked me how poker went this weekend, and I said that it went great, even though I didn’t play a single hand.  This would be confusing to most until I handed them an 11-page analysis report that I wrote (which deeply probed into my play from each position in comparison to the top winners at my stakes.  I believe the report was complete by Saturday night. Some of the findings were slightly modified Sunday and Monday night to form a final strategy and game-plan going forward.

In a way maybe it is a good thing that I ran so bad recently, it forced me to regroup and seriously look at my game.  If I ran like a God I may have kept chugging along, with an inevitable down-stretch pending that I wouldn’t have been prepared for.  I’m happy to say I’ve completed the focus of the 7 areas mentioned in my last post.  I even found a two-headed dragon magic the gathering card (variance) and put it on my desk.  I won’t probe into every area for the entire world to see, but it certainly gives me confidence and focus going forward.  I will say the area “pre flop opening range adjustments” based on analysis was the area that I spent the most hours on.

At first I won’t be able to play 12 tables at once because the changes I am making are that drastic.  I’m hoping to get to that level as fast as I can (within a week), but I’m not rushing into it.  I am planning on putting in a 3 hour session Wednesday night.  A few more things going on:

I will be a quarter of a century old sometime next week.

This is scary.  I’m certainly not saying “OMG I’m so old”.  But this ultimately irrelevant date reinforces in my mind the fact that it’s time to make a move in my life very soon.  Also 20 year old girls now seem strangely out of reach, which just isn't even fair.  Maybe I'll just say I'm 24 for a while.      

I love my day job.

Why wouldn’t I?  It’s providing me with the money I need to take a shot at my goals.

I requested off work the entire 2^nd week of June.

I will be playing poker full-time that week, and I want to see what it feels like.  This is also going to be a very important week to gauge my progress.  It’s tough to put in the volume cramming every session in on weekends and the occasional week-night.  I can’t stress enough how important it will be to get a full 40-50 hours in during this week.  So I have over a month to get myself in the best position to make the most out of that week.

Conversation with My Dad

Also, I had a conversation with my father about my plans (putting it nicely).  Ok it was more a forced conversation that he initiated out of nowhere.  He had obviously been planning the border-line attack.  I wouldn’t say the "conversation" or "me defending myself session" was completely logical, but it’s getting somewhat closer.  Maybe I will post the hilarity of this conversation in the future.  It was basically him trying to attack from any possible angle to try to make me question myself (while acting supportive at the same time).  It was a contradictory mess, but I felt like it was quite an improvement from any talks from the past.

-bag

No Hands Logged: Hitting the Books (4.30.2010)

I decided to take a small break from grinding out hours online and put a good amount of time into poker study.  It is important to sometimes step back, take an in-depth look at your play, be honest, and re-evaluate everything.  I have built a huge database of my hands using HEM over the last few months and I haven’t put in the necessary time to analyze this database and appropriately look for leaks.  All of this incredibly valuable raw data is just sitting there just screaming to be broken down.  It is screaming:  BAGLIFE LOOK AT ME YOU FOOL, FOR THE LOVE OF GOD LOOK!  Yet I’ve made the fatal error of neglecting my personal analysis, I kept chugging away during the down-swing losing money even with the bonuses.  Part of the reason for my chugging along was I knew how bad I was running, and I thought a massive amount of hands would balance the EV out.  And sure I’ve been running bad, but just how bad?  Well sadly I didn’t fully know.  I should know the exact answers to questions like: if I ran normal EV (net zero) over this downswing, what would my exact win-rate be?

The analysis is tough based on a few factors, but I need to get a ball-park answer that is over 90% accurate for the important questions.  I can specifically focus on my 100NL stats, which I have 82,000 hands logged.  This is still a decent sample size to break down based on the stakes I will be playing at.    

These are topics I may be touching on during upcoming posts.  I’ve been running bad, but I know I’m not doing everything optimally just by glancing over some key stats on the HEM.  The good thing is that I have a battle plan in place going forward.  By the end of the weekend I will be a drastically different player; some major adjustments will be made.  I can make them or bleed money with another inevitable swing.   

Here are 7 leaks/adjustment/issues (A-G) that I will study before logging another hand online.  It may take an entire night of studying, hell it may take 3 full nights:

A)  Leak 1- My open raises are not fully polarized.  I won’t probe into this; but I’ve decided to generally polarize my open pre flop raises from every position.  This is an adjustment already in place going forward.  This leak-plug will make me a less exploitable player.

B)  Leak 2- Pre flop range analysis.  One of my major weaknesses has been playing too tightly pre flop.  I’m simply not playing enough hands pre flop to support the natural losses from the blinds.  My VPIP% and PFR% need to increase from all positions when opening DRASTICALLY.  Just by how much?  Well this is a major area that I will be studying this weekend.  I’m going to cross reference my opening pre flop raise % from each position against a composite average of the PFR% that the most winning short-stackers at my stakes have.

I have already picked out the 5 best short-stackers based on win-rate who I have logged the most hands against.  Combined I have over 23k hands of theirs logged.  I’m going to lump these 23k hands into an average and compare against my stats.  I wish I had a larger database to compare against, but this isn’t an exact science.  It’s simply a way I can estimate just how much I do need to increase my pre flop open range, VPIP, and PFR.  For example, if the 5 pro short-stackers combined are opening with a pre-flop raise of 8% UTG, and I am opening with a pre-flop raise of only 2% based on my 80k hands played, then this would be a A HUGE LEAK that I must plug up immediately.  This is an example of how I plan to cross reference for my benefit.       

C)  Review a massive amount of hands shown down and begin making guides up on how these hands play out.  The hands reviewed should be from solid-short stacking opponents and myself.  Study these hands at your worthless day job to improve.  And DON’T just do this a few hours and stop.  I should be doing this for a few hours EVERY WEEK whether I’m winning or losing.

D)  Read fully a very well known short-stacking strategy thread that contains some nice articles.  This will take a few hours since it is 20 pages long.  I can also complete D at my job tomorrow if I have time.  Not that I will instantly be changing my strategy to implement everything in the guide, but picking up one small idea could make it a worthwhile read.  The chance of picking up that one small idea can never be underestimated.

E)  Continue thinking about poker every-day.  I have been in this mode for over a month now; especially when I’m not playing.  I’m always thinking about poker.  This is good, I will continue to let it consume my thought processes.  I guess I can’t force E on myself, but I’m glad I am still thinking about the game each hour of every-day.  This shows I am still passionate about improving.  I refuse to restrict my drive to improve; it's not like I have anything better to think about.

F)  Work out what you are willing to comfortably invest during the next month.  During the month of May I’m going to set a max on what I’m willing to invest into online poker.  This will be a specific $ amount that I just don’t want my checking account to fall below.  If I take a big variance down-swing I simple won’t pull out any more money until the next month.  I’m not going to keep making deposits while forcing myself to put volume in with too much money in play at once when I’m already bleeding money.    

G)  Embrace the two-headed dragon known as variance as a part of your life.  How can one embrace such an ungodly evil creature as part of their life?

This is the most difficult challenge going forward.  Variance is not something that can be analyzed and attacked.  Attempting to slay this powerful monster with your pathetic sword would be futile.  Similarly, you can’t defeat variance by heaving a chair across your room.  If you threw a chair at a dragon it would only become angrier and mess you up more.  The only choice is to accept that this creature is always lurking somewhere in the shadows.  When the beast attacks and launches a massive fireball your once peaceful village will erupt into a raging inferno.  All you can do when this happens is take the children (and most attractive women) and hide in the awesome under-ground tunnels until the dragon leaves.  The dragon will always come, but he will EVENTUALLY leave to go harass another village or whatever a dragon enjoys doing in his spare time.  But once gone you can simply rebuild as the village has been doing for generations; this is the way of life.

These are 7 topics that I will fully address before playing another hand.  Hopefully I will have it all worked out by Saturday night where I can play another session.  Extremely tired, but I’m going to aim for a post tomorrow on topic B (pre flop hand rankings).

Cheers,

-bag

Stumbled Half Way to Supernova (4.28.2010)

Last night I put in a 2.5 hour session during an interesting time slot.  After I got home I decided to destroy a nap from 8:00p.m- 9:00p.m.  I was then going to wake up and put in a session.  The problem is I slept well past 9 p.m.  Eventually I woke up around 12:15 a.m with some energy.  Since I felt awake I decided to play; ended up logging out at 3:00 a.m.  I then woke up for work around 7:00 a.m.  So last night I slept 7.5 hours, but the sleep was broken up into two segments.  I’m not sure if this counts as a full night’s sleep, but I don’t feel terrible at the moment.

Well it was another miserable session.  I’m running under -$500 in EV for the last 20 hours of play.  I remember getting all in pre with AA on two occasions and getting crushed by a miraculous board.  The first was AA < AQ all in pre (opponent spikes trip queens).  The next was AA< K9s (opponent flushes the river).  There were a few other very unlucky hands as well.  If you can’t hold AA over AQo, and K9s all in pre flop you aren’t going to win much money playing poker; let’s be honest.  Ended up down around -$100 for the session.  Luckily a $100 stellar reward bonus saved me and brought the session to even.

I did reach the 50,000VPP mark at least, which is half-way to Supernova.  My online bankroll is around $1980.  This number fluctuates drastically with 12 table sessions.  I usually have a minimum of around $250 in play at any given time.  The upcoming stretch REALLY worries me.  I’ve been on a massive –EV down-swing the past month, and if it continues over the weekend I’m really not going to be a happy person.  Also my bonuses are dried up for the upcoming stretch.  I don’t see another $100 stellar reward until I hit 60,000 VPPs.

Damage Control Plan for Variance.

I’m expecting to not earn enough combined FPPS for another cash bonus until I earn about 12,000 more VPPS.  This means for the next 10k VPPS I am absolutely on my own.  This could very well eat into my bank account if I continue to run as badly as I have been.  And I’m really not sure I am ready to deal with this fate.  During the next 50 hours of play I feel it is crucial that I run at least average from an EV standpoint.  The problem is I can’t control what I run EV.  I could run -$3000 more in EV over the next few months, it could keep going until I’m forced to temporarily retreat (even if I pull off a few nice bum-hunts to balance it).

This weekend (and the upcoming few weeks) I really need to set a stop point if things aren’t going well.  I have to look at my checking account and ask myself what I am comfortable depositing in during a continued worst case scenario.  If I hit a massive downswing this weekend I have a few choices:

A)  Set a stop point where I will invest $600 more into my online poker account.  That stop point would be $1350 for me right now.  At $1350 I don’t think I can comfortably short stack 12 tables at 100NL without worrying about the bankroll.  It just fluctuates to damn fast.

B)  Set a stop point ($1350) where and immediately drop to 6 tables.  This way the swings well be less dramatic and I can focus on getting every fraction of positive EV.

C)  At the $1350 stop point keep 12 tables, but drop to short-stacking 50NL.  The same volume, but only $120 would now be in play at once.  However, I’d be earning half the VPPS.  I really hate this option since I’ve become so comfortably with player tendencies at 100NL. 

D)  Drop to four 50NL tables and go full buy-in.  There would still be around $200 in play at once, but the variance SHOULD drop significantly.  That is a hell of a theoretical “SHOULD”.  If BH, is reading this I’m sure he is SCREAMING:  “TAKE D YOU BAGLIFE MOTHER FUCKER”.

E)  Short-stack 200NL, but only play 3 tables at once.  This sounds fun and I would most likely be playing more optimally.  However, if I lost a few stacks here I would already be in bad shape.  The money can swing actually faster so TERRIBLE to even have this option listed.

F)  Go out and enjoy the weekend.  Meet up with or find and ask out an attractive girl.  Begin dating and let her ruin your life.  Hey it’s always an option….

Looking at the list I will probably go with A, B, or D when the down-swing occurs.  If it pains me too much to make another $600 deposit within a 10 day period I may go with B for a while.  And I’m just assuming the down-swing will occur because that is the way things are going for me right now; this is simple my fate at the moment.  I’d be lucky to go a weekend running normally, and I will be bum-hunting to try to balance a pending disappointment out.

Another note, I really do have tilt issues.  I’ve recognized the problem as something serious and I’m debating ordering a copy of Elements of Poker, which was recommended to me by Lucypher a while ago.  Lucypher always visits regularly and leaves comments, and I really can't thank him enough.  Feedback received makes this blog worthwhile.  Anyways, I wouldn’t be buying the book for the technical aspects, but I need something to help my psychological part of the game (as ridiculous as that may sound to some).

Defining Variance:

Another note, from here out I’ve decided to refer to variance as the “two-headed dragon”:

 

If you can think of a more bad-ass creature let me know.  This dragon has been kicking the shit out of me for a while now; it is QUITE a formidable adversary.

Wasted Rake-back:

I recently realized it is a damn shame that I’m running bad to a point where I have to waste FPPs at a Platinum Star level for bonuses as soon as I earn them.  This isn’t economically a great strategy because I do plan on eventually hitting Supernova.  This is because at Supernova I would be earning more cash for the same amount of FPPs spent.  When I get some time I have to crunch the numbers and figure out exactly how much money I am really wasting every time I purchase a $650 bonus for 50,000 FPPs.  Actually, let’s do it right now since I’m sort of checked out on corporate for the day.  I believe the standard Supernova bonus is $1500 for every 100,000 FPPs. 

Platinum Star:  $650/50,000(FPPS) = .013  So 13 cents earned per FPP.

Supernova:  $1500/100,000(FPPS) = .015  So 15 cents earned per FPP.

Therefore, I am essentially wasting $100 in bonuses every time I purchase the Platinum Star $650 bonus for 50,000 FPPs.  I have already cleared two of these bonuses.  Also there is a milestone bonus at 100,000VPPS of $1000 for 50,000 FPPs, which equates to a one time rake-back deal of 20 cents for 50,000 FPPs of your choice.

If I stayed on pace during the next 50,000 VPPs earned (this is all theoretical) I would have wasted at least $300 by prematurely purchasing bonuses.  So I guess it would be feasible if I could find someone  who would lend me some money, so I don’t have to immediately convert my FPPs to platinum star cash bonuses.  I would compensate them their money back and an additional +$200 once I hit Supernova status.  But that would be a good amount to lend out for only a $200 return on investment, though it is guaranteed.  I’m thinking $2000 would be the maximum I would have to pull out of an account (factoring in running as bad as I am now, which is the worse I can really run).  If someone temporarily transferred me the money I could give them back a guaranteed 10.0% of their investment.  Maybe I can talk to my 200NL friend… shrug.  It would have to be someone who could transfer the money on Pokerstars.  I would gladly give the lender $200 so the money isn’t going to waste, and this would in turn keep a fraction of the would be wasted bonus.  That being said, I would not be planning to borrow a full $2000 dollars.  The deal would be termed “Borrow X amount of money (anywhere from $1,000-$2,000), and as soon as I hit NOVA the lender would be compensated the amount borrowed out plus a minimum of $200.  Receiving $200 for a $1000 investment actually wouldn’t be so bad if someone has spare money sitting around in their account that is not going to use.  I guess it would be a matter of finding the right person.  So if anybody knows someone, send them my way!

I’m sort of rambling on here just thinking of a new idea, but it would be cool to find someone to help with this.  It might be a problem because my variance has been so high the last 100K hands that I have logged.  The last 50k I’ve improved a lot, but two-headed dragon has stomped me.  It might have to be someone I know, and I don’t have many poker friends.

Cheers,

-bag