Stumbled Half Way to Supernova (4.28.2010)

Last night I put in a 2.5 hour session during an interesting time slot.  After I got home I decided to destroy a nap from 8:00p.m- 9:00p.m.  I was then going to wake up and put in a session.  The problem is I slept well past 9 p.m.  Eventually I woke up around 12:15 a.m with some energy.  Since I felt awake I decided to play; ended up logging out at 3:00 a.m.  I then woke up for work around 7:00 a.m.  So last night I slept 7.5 hours, but the sleep was broken up into two segments.  I’m not sure if this counts as a full night’s sleep, but I don’t feel terrible at the moment.

Well it was another miserable session.  I’m running under -$500 in EV for the last 20 hours of play.  I remember getting all in pre with AA on two occasions and getting crushed by a miraculous board.  The first was AA < AQ all in pre (opponent spikes trip queens).  The next was AA< K9s (opponent flushes the river).  There were a few other very unlucky hands as well.  If you can’t hold AA over AQo, and K9s all in pre flop you aren’t going to win much money playing poker; let’s be honest.  Ended up down around -$100 for the session.  Luckily a $100 stellar reward bonus saved me and brought the session to even.

I did reach the 50,000VPP mark at least, which is half-way to Supernova.  My online bankroll is around $1980.  This number fluctuates drastically with 12 table sessions.  I usually have a minimum of around $250 in play at any given time.  The upcoming stretch REALLY worries me.  I’ve been on a massive –EV down-swing the past month, and if it continues over the weekend I’m really not going to be a happy person.  Also my bonuses are dried up for the upcoming stretch.  I don’t see another $100 stellar reward until I hit 60,000 VPPs.

Damage Control Plan for Variance.

I’m expecting to not earn enough combined FPPS for another cash bonus until I earn about 12,000 more VPPS.  This means for the next 10k VPPS I am absolutely on my own.  This could very well eat into my bank account if I continue to run as badly as I have been.  And I’m really not sure I am ready to deal with this fate.  During the next 50 hours of play I feel it is crucial that I run at least average from an EV standpoint.  The problem is I can’t control what I run EV.  I could run -$3000 more in EV over the next few months, it could keep going until I’m forced to temporarily retreat (even if I pull off a few nice bum-hunts to balance it).

This weekend (and the upcoming few weeks) I really need to set a stop point if things aren’t going well.  I have to look at my checking account and ask myself what I am comfortable depositing in during a continued worst case scenario.  If I hit a massive downswing this weekend I have a few choices:

A)  Set a stop point where I will invest $600 more into my online poker account.  That stop point would be $1350 for me right now.  At $1350 I don’t think I can comfortably short stack 12 tables at 100NL without worrying about the bankroll.  It just fluctuates to damn fast.

B)  Set a stop point ($1350) where and immediately drop to 6 tables.  This way the swings well be less dramatic and I can focus on getting every fraction of positive EV.

C)  At the $1350 stop point keep 12 tables, but drop to short-stacking 50NL.  The same volume, but only $120 would now be in play at once.  However, I’d be earning half the VPPS.  I really hate this option since I’ve become so comfortably with player tendencies at 100NL. 

D)  Drop to four 50NL tables and go full buy-in.  There would still be around $200 in play at once, but the variance SHOULD drop significantly.  That is a hell of a theoretical “SHOULD”.  If BH, is reading this I’m sure he is SCREAMING:  “TAKE D YOU BAGLIFE MOTHER FUCKER”.

E)  Short-stack 200NL, but only play 3 tables at once.  This sounds fun and I would most likely be playing more optimally.  However, if I lost a few stacks here I would already be in bad shape.  The money can swing actually faster so TERRIBLE to even have this option listed.

F)  Go out and enjoy the weekend.  Meet up with or find and ask out an attractive girl.  Begin dating and let her ruin your life.  Hey it’s always an option….

Looking at the list I will probably go with A, B, or D when the down-swing occurs.  If it pains me too much to make another $600 deposit within a 10 day period I may go with B for a while.  And I’m just assuming the down-swing will occur because that is the way things are going for me right now; this is simple my fate at the moment.  I’d be lucky to go a weekend running normally, and I will be bum-hunting to try to balance a pending disappointment out.

Another note, I really do have tilt issues.  I’ve recognized the problem as something serious and I’m debating ordering a copy of Elements of Poker, which was recommended to me by Lucypher a while ago.  Lucypher always visits regularly and leaves comments, and I really can't thank him enough.  Feedback received makes this blog worthwhile.  Anyways, I wouldn’t be buying the book for the technical aspects, but I need something to help my psychological part of the game (as ridiculous as that may sound to some).

Defining Variance:

Another note, from here out I’ve decided to refer to variance as the “two-headed dragon”:

 

If you can think of a more bad-ass creature let me know.  This dragon has been kicking the shit out of me for a while now; it is QUITE a formidable adversary.

Wasted Rake-back:

I recently realized it is a damn shame that I’m running bad to a point where I have to waste FPPs at a Platinum Star level for bonuses as soon as I earn them.  This isn’t economically a great strategy because I do plan on eventually hitting Supernova.  This is because at Supernova I would be earning more cash for the same amount of FPPs spent.  When I get some time I have to crunch the numbers and figure out exactly how much money I am really wasting every time I purchase a $650 bonus for 50,000 FPPs.  Actually, let’s do it right now since I’m sort of checked out on corporate for the day.  I believe the standard Supernova bonus is $1500 for every 100,000 FPPs. 

Platinum Star:  $650/50,000(FPPS) = .013  So 13 cents earned per FPP.

Supernova:  $1500/100,000(FPPS) = .015  So 15 cents earned per FPP.

Therefore, I am essentially wasting $100 in bonuses every time I purchase the Platinum Star $650 bonus for 50,000 FPPs.  I have already cleared two of these bonuses.  Also there is a milestone bonus at 100,000VPPS of $1000 for 50,000 FPPs, which equates to a one time rake-back deal of 20 cents for 50,000 FPPs of your choice.

If I stayed on pace during the next 50,000 VPPs earned (this is all theoretical) I would have wasted at least $300 by prematurely purchasing bonuses.  So I guess it would be feasible if I could find someone  who would lend me some money, so I don’t have to immediately convert my FPPs to platinum star cash bonuses.  I would compensate them their money back and an additional +$200 once I hit Supernova status.  But that would be a good amount to lend out for only a $200 return on investment, though it is guaranteed.  I’m thinking $2000 would be the maximum I would have to pull out of an account (factoring in running as bad as I am now, which is the worse I can really run).  If someone temporarily transferred me the money I could give them back a guaranteed 10.0% of their investment.  Maybe I can talk to my 200NL friend… shrug.  It would have to be someone who could transfer the money on Pokerstars.  I would gladly give the lender $200 so the money isn’t going to waste, and this would in turn keep a fraction of the would be wasted bonus.  That being said, I would not be planning to borrow a full $2000 dollars.  The deal would be termed “Borrow X amount of money (anywhere from $1,000-$2,000), and as soon as I hit NOVA the lender would be compensated the amount borrowed out plus a minimum of $200.  Receiving $200 for a $1000 investment actually wouldn’t be so bad if someone has spare money sitting around in their account that is not going to use.  I guess it would be a matter of finding the right person.  So if anybody knows someone, send them my way!

I’m sort of rambling on here just thinking of a new idea, but it would be cool to find someone to help with this.  It might be a problem because my variance has been so high the last 100K hands that I have logged.  The last 50k I’ve improved a lot, but two-headed dragon has stomped me.  It might have to be someone I know, and I don’t have many poker friends.

Cheers,

-bag