Updates and Small Sunday Win (4.26.2010)

Something crazy happened Sunday night: I won money playing poker.  I also ran +EV for the first time in about 12 straight sessions.  HEM reported that my EV was +$40, but I finished up +$200 in profit.  This was really the first time I’ve had something to feel good about poker-wise in many moons (despite a few break-even stretches which would have actually been losses if it wasn’t for the bonuses).  I only played 2.5 hours before a power outage ended the session short.

A crazy bum-hunt paid off for me as I turned $20 into $150 on one of the tables.  I decided to leave the stack on that particular table when I initially doubled up to $40 because there were two very exploitable players sitting to my immediate right.  Going forward I’m going to look for more opportunities to bum-hunt and play full buy in poker.  I have been neglecting taking shots like this the past month and a half because I’ve been so focused on teaching myself how to  comfortably play over 12 tables at once.  Well now I am playing 12 comfortably.  And never again will I underestimate the huge pay-off potential of leaving my doubled up stack on certain tables to go after weak players. 

This will be a huge, but necessary adjustment going forward.  It’s an unconventional strategy that isn’t for everyone, but I feel confident in my ability to pull it off.  I’d rather bum-hunt on the side for additional profit, rather than force myself to play 16-24 tables at once.  Besides, I still study full buy-in poker weekly; I might as well put all the efforts to use.  Also, the new 20-50BB tables make this strategy actually more feasible than ever before.  One double up and you’re around the 50BB max buy-in allowed.  On the old tables if a short-stacker doubled up and stayed he would still be at a very big disadvantage to the players buying in for 100BBs. 

The new format further supports my previously forgotten goal of becoming what I like to call a "hybrid short-stacker".  Sure I short-stack mostly due to bankroll restrictions, but if I see a clown-box on my table pissing away chips it is my moral obligation as a poker player to stack up and go to war with that player.  Just one or two successful pay-offs like this per week can make an enormous difference for me.  It can negate the massive EV downswings like the one that has been driving me to the point of insanity during the last month and a half.  The problem with short-stacking is if you run really bad EV you’re going to generally have a net loss, I don’t care who you are.  Therefore, I need to find other ways to earn profit while I’m grinding the VPPs short-stacking.

I didn’t quite get the amount of volume I wanted this weekend.  I would have hit 20 hours for the week, but the power outage Sunday night ruined that goal.  I went out both Friday and Saturday night, pressured by social obligations.  Saturday night I was disappointed that I didn’t get to put in a big session, but it was a friend’s birthday and I never would have heard the end of it if I didn’t show up.  The chick actually left a note at my house saying: “you better be there or else” so I really didn’t want to mess with that.  And you know if it wasn’t for her leaving that note, I would not have showed up.  So even though the act of leaving the note was border-line stalkerish behavior, I commended her efforts to recruit me.  However, this upcoming weekend needs to be different; grind-town is a must.

This week I expect to reach 50,000 VPPs for the year, which would bring me half way to Supernova status.  The 50,000-60,000 VPP stretch should be a hell of a tough time.  I just cleared a $650 bonus this weekend, so it’s going to be a while before I play enough to earn the 50,000 FPPs to required purchase another bonus.  I’ve calculated that at my current pace I earn about 1,700 FPPs playing 3 hours.  So a 21 hour week should yield an average of 12,000 FPPs.  I currently have about 13,000 in my account, so 60-65 hours of play should earn another bonus.  This may not sound like much playing time for a $650 bonus, but I assure you it is; this stretch is absolutely critical.  I know all too well that a TON can go wrong during a 65 hour 12-tabling stretch.  I can’t be bleeding money here.  I absolutely should be at least breaking even by the end of the stretch.  My goal has to be to win every session in any way possible, regardless of how bad I run.  I am not ruling out switching to full buy in bum-hunt sessions to balance out bad EV so I can still profit.  If this is what has to be done so be it.

I have a lot of work ahead of me, but I will do my best to keep updating on my progresses or brutal failures.

-bag

Every Poker Session is the Worst Session of My Life (4.22.2010)

My online poker situation reminds me of an interaction from one of my favorite movies Office Space, an absolute classic that everyone should see at some point.  If you have ever worked a corporate job; I would say it is an absolute mandatory watch.  When the main character Peter Gibbons and his girl-friend meet with the psychologist the following conversation takes place:

 Peter Gibbons:   “So I was sitting at my cubical today, and I realized, ever since I started working, every single day of my life has been worse than the day before it.  So that means that every single day that you see me, that’s the worst day of my life.”

Dr. Swanson:  “What about today? Is today the worst day of your life?”

Peter Gibbons:  “Yeah”

Dr. Swanson:  “Wow, that’s messed up.”

So if I met with the psychologist and discussed my poker sessions it would go something like this:

Baglife:  “So I was sitting at my cubical today, and I realized, ever since a random short-stacking session a month and a half ago, that every single consecutive session after has been worse than the session before it.  So that means that every single poker session I play, that is the worst poker session of my life”

Dr.  Swanson:  “What about earlier today?   Was that the worst poker session of your life?”

Baglife:  “From a disappointment standpoint YES.”

Dr. Swanson:  “Wow, that’s messed up.”

Baglife: “Yeah tell me about it…….”

And I can’t think of a better way to sum it up.  I put in 9 hours already this week.  A 3 hour session each night.  Session one down -$45, session 2 even, session 3 (last night) down -$150.  Last night I saw some of the best action in a while, but I was brutalized by every suck-out imaginable.  It seems every coin-flip I comically lose, every time an opponent is pinned to 4-outs they hit, every time an opponent is pinned to a 2-outer they miraculously catch.  I’m not sure how long something like this can go on, but it has already gone on for well over two weeks. 

I won't probe deeply into the specifics of the -$150 session last night because I’m at work and don’t have the session log in front of me.  However, the HEM officially reported -$100 in EV, like usual.  I remember a huge two outer catching on an all in.  I also remember 3-4 full buy in’s lost where an opponent was all in pre-flop and pinned to 4 outs, they caught every time:

AK < AQ all in pre and TT < K3 all in pre were two nightmare scenarios I vividly remember.  I congratulated the guy with the K3, what can I say?  He had an instinctive ability to go after the rigged account, I must hand it to him right?   

However, there are some positives to draw from my historic downswing.  I have a solid system down to grind FPP’s, and if I can run normal and at least break even with that system I can earn enough to quit my day job in a few months.  Looking back over the past month my overview stats would say that breaking even is not realistic.  However, based on my personal analysis at least breaking even is absolutely realistic, and the fact that I haven’t been at least breaking even blows my fucking mind.  There’s always a massive amount of coinflips lost each session.  There are always a few enormous suck-out pots that destroy every session.  So many times I looked back at sessions saying “If I hold against the two outer in situation X and Y I win for the session, but I can’t find a way to dodge the two outs”.

So going forward I have the adjustments and system in place.  But it’s going to take an INHUMAN amount of poker during the next few months to give myself a chance to earn my freedom.  I’ve analyzed the amount of VPPs I would earn and there is a massive difference between putting in 15 vs 20 hours per week.  I know I have to play a minimum of 20 hours going forward to have any sort of chance of getting out of corporate by end of June (and even this goal is very unlikely the way things have been going).

I’ll admit this is a tough time of the year to be making this push.  Friends want to go out every night, it’s nice outside, there is a party every weekend, and sometimes I really want to start dating new people again.  But I don’t have a choice, I have to push.  It’s fight or accept rotting in a dark office the entire summer; the choice is mine alone.  No one is going to push me either way; I have to keep pushing myself.  My hate for corporate is pushing me, my goal to be my own man is pushing me, my desire to achieve what I’ve set out to do is pushing me.

My desire to play full time is burning, but I want to do it responsibly.  I can’t quit my day job until I show a break even track record over the span of a month or two.  Then I can leave my own man responsibly.

I have decided to stick with short-stacking in the immediate future.  I see how it would be possibly to earn as much as my day job if I played and ended up with $0 net profit, even starting at the level I’m out now short-stacking.  It sounds so easy, but it's not.  I haven’t ruled out converting to full by in, but right now it’s time to make a push at the format I’ve committed the most time to.  Also, the changes on Stars have not ruined short-stacking, the games are better than ever; and the power of the 24-tabling bots seems to have taken a hit.

It’s scary to think about where I will be if I keep bleeding money the next few months.  Though I’m in an alright situation to make this push.  Even if I continue running historically bad, it won’t be the end of the world.  To me the purpose of my day job the next few months is to support poker.  To give online poker the chance to support itself.  I dream of a day when my corporate funds are not needed to keep my online poker account on life support.

Even if I lost a -$1000 a month I wouldn’t be set back in the long run.  Normally I would be paying at least $750 a month with rent and utilities, and $400 a month partying and going out every weekend.  This is part of the reason I moved home.  Now that same $1000 is going into taking a shot at my dream to play professionally.  This is how I justify losing like I did during the past month and a half.  Besides it’s just money it really doesn’t mean shit.  I’m taking the blood money and trying to make something useful out of it. 

I will be taking a break tonight and playing tennis.  On Friday a friend is having a moving away party that I have to attend.  But Saturday and Sunday massive volume will be put in.  If I put in 9 hours Saturday and 6 hours Sunday that would be 24 hours for the week, which is a LOT of volume for me, especially with the day job and other obligations.  I want to put in a minimum of 20 hours this week.

-bag

Down -$118: Sunday Commentary (4.18.2010)

3 hour Sunday commentary:

6:10 p.m

I have 12 tables; but the action is pathetic across the board right now.  I’ll have to be constantly seeking new tables to swap in.

Just flopped a set on table 6.  He of course wins with Quads lmao.  Ok sure. 

AK < JJ all in pre table 4.  Standard bull-shit in the first 5 minutes.  IT’s getting to a point where I should instant fold AK preflop. 

Then dealt KK and they fold around. 

So recap:  I can’t win a flip, I can’t dodge a suck-out, and everyone’s a nit somehow.

AK< QK all in pre table 1.  $40 fucking gone because of a river queen.  Against a regular short-stacker as well.  Yes a regular made a $15 pre-flop 4-bet call with QK off amazing.  I can't stress enough how mind-blowingly stupid this play really is.  WHAT COULD HE POSSIBLY BE PUTTING ME ON HERE??? I mean after he thought about it 40 seconds somehow this was the logical choice?  And I bet if I look this God awful player up he's probably profiting over the last month and a half yet I'm getting killed.  This is why I hate poker. 

Is he praying I have JJ or TT and he feels like throwing a coin against the wall?  I'm obviously more likely to have AK or AQ in this situation.  I'm not 4 betting you all in pre with dog-shit.  I'm not a tool-shed clueless tard-bot player like you.  You are completely fucking destroyed; even if I'm assigning you a range and re-shoving with a steal I'm at least holding a god damn ace?  What IN THE HELL are you thinking? 

I put him on AQ the way he thought about making the huge call pre like a tool-box.  Had a feeling the miracle river gave it to him; but with QK off wow even better.

THAT OFFICIALLY PUTS ME ON TILT

I need to chill out I’m about to completely lose it 20 minutes in. 

6:40 p.m

KK> JJ all in pre on table 4. 

AK < 88 all in pre table 3 WOW.  He hits the set against my top pair.  See when you’re holding 88 just shove like fucking clown against me; it will work out fine.  Don't worry there's absolutely zero chance I will be holding TT-AA.

QQ > AKs all in pre on table 6.  Much needed double up there.

7:05 P.M

AA< TT ALL IN PRE.  He hits a river straight against my set.  Now all I can do is accept this session is completely fucking rigged.  I have no chance of ever profiting on this site and that is it.  All I can do is continue to make the right play and enjoy being massacred by ridiculous two outers like this.

Maybe since I purchased a bonus tonight the site decides to do this to me?  Every time a major bonus is purchased I seem to run a thousand dollars under EV the next week until the entire bonus is gone.

7:30 p.m

99 < A 5 all in preflop against the worst player on the table.  He’s doubled up on me twice hitting 3 outers now. 

AA> AJ all in pre table 12.  If that doesn’t hold I just give up

7:50 p.m

The nightmare continues.  All in with KK destroyed by a turned 55 set.  Fucking hilarious.  Incorrect preflop call, horribly incorrect flop call. AND TURN REWARD HERE YOU GO GOOD JOB PLAYING LIKE AN FOOL!!!

AK < K10 all in pre.  FLOP TEN.  IM’ STEAMING.   So on table 8 I have lost 3 full buy in’s to people hitting 3 outers after being all in preflop making a horrendous call.

WOULD STRONGLY RECOMMEND GETTING SCREWED OVER ON POKERSTARS AGAIN.  THE TEN ON THE FLOP WAS A++++.  THE TEN WAS ALSO EXTREMELY PORTABLE AND GREAT FOR SHIPPING.  EXCELLENT!!!!!

Any human being playing this session would be up around $100 already; instead im totally fucked because I can’t dodge a suckout.

$10 SHOVED all in pre on table 4 with AQ.  He has AK .  It holds.

I have never seen the rig on this bad.  AT least pretend you aren’t rigging my account.  Like can I dodge one out of TEN FUCKING 3-OUTER all in pre suck outs?

What else?  WHAT IS NEXT?  IM SURE stars will think of something that will even shock me after all this fucking shit

8:10 p.m

KK < Q10 all in on the flop. His pathetic top pair, weak kicker ends up sucking out overpair KK.  wonderful turn of events.

One more hour of this bull-shit.

KK > KQ all in pre.  He flopped a queen and almost hit a flush but I held on.

8:30 p.m

AA < QQ all in pre  another -$40 that should be mine.

That's why I like Stars because it's so balanced.  So when you get all in pre-flop with your opponent having two outs he now HITS 4 out of 5 times.  But when you get coolered to having 2 outs pre you lose 20 out of 20 times; like I said completely balanced.

This has gone from disgusting to ridiculous.

9:02 p.m

AK < QQ all in pre.  Thanks again.  I forgot I should insta fold AK on here.

9:20 p.m

3 hour mark.  I think I should cut off at 9:50 max tonight.

9:33 p.m

AK < 44 all in pre.  Another horrendous cold call pre rewarded to the fullest extent.

9:50 p.m

Logging down over $100; it’s been a complete bull-shit night.  I’ve had enough.

10:00 p.m

Logged on all the tables.  Down -$118 in the 2,600 hands.  EV claimed to be around average on HUD, whatever session it was watching that’s very funny.

Let’s look at some hands:

KK < QT -$40.  All in on the flop, he sucks out two pair on the river.

AA < QQ -$40.  All in preflop, opponent spikes the queen on the flop.

AA < TT -$40.  All in preflop.  Opponent runner runners to hit a straight against my top set.

AK < QK -$38.  All in preflop.  River comes queen.

AK < K10 -$35.  All in preflop.  Opponent flops the ten and I don’t improve.

99 < A5 -$35.  All in preflop.  Opponent flops the top pair ace and I don’t improve.

AK < 44 -$35.  All in preflop.  Opponent rewarded with the hold on a ridiculous $16 cold call pre with 44.

KK < 55 - $40.  All in post.  After incorrectly calling pre and on the flop he turns the miracle set.

So that’s just a sample size.  I didn’t include the usual 10 coinflips lost; just the big hands where I feel I need to win a few.  If I win 3 of the above the session is even, that’ s how stupid short-stacking really is.  Check the bolded lines above; I just have to win at least 3 of those.  

If I could have held even against half of the ridiculous hands in bold above I would have felt fine with the end result.  I'm focusing to much on results of individual sessions and I'm extremely angry overall.  It's because I've had such a negative past month and a half.  I mean I could go my entire lifetime on this site without the luck balancing back to my favor.  All I can do is keep playing and accept that I can never run normally.  I mean even if I sit there and play another fucking month, I might not run ONE god-damn session like a normal person.  I might play correctly each time and still lose money.  So I can accept that or stop playing.  If I can't accept that I can do my job 10 sessions in a row and still have a net dollar loss on each of those sessions then I'm in the wrong poker mindset and I have no business playing.  I'm going to try to keep that in mind during the next few weeks, but it's for some reason still a difficult concept for me to grasp.  I guess I'm not mature enough to grasp it yet.

Another dollar loss night that leaves a bitter taste; what can you do.  Time to start slaughtering farm animals to sacrifice to the Gods of probability.  Or to the administrators of rigstars.  So next time I will slaughter a lamb and send it to PokerStars or something.

Saturday Session Commentary (4/17/2010)

9 Hours of commentary below:

5:20 p.m

Fantastic my HUD is still busted and unable to link up to the 20-50 BB table updates.  I’m going to play a 3 hour session then log out and mess around with it some more shrug. 

AK > 99 all in pre .  Enjoyable flop with an ACE and king there. 

JJ < 44 all in on the flop.  Seventy dollar pot gone because the clown-box flops his miracle set.  Amazing.  I forgot I’m supposed to fold top pair there because I’m playing poker and fighting a rig at the same time.

6:20 p.m

AKs < AA all in pre.  Thanks idiot stars.

AK < 10 10 all inpre.  It’s always nice to win a coin flip!

6:30 p.m

KK < AJ all in pre on table 4.  He’s awarded with the immediate ACE on the flop like usual.  Shit-ton I can do there, like play on a new site.

AQ < TT.  He somehow flops quads against my top pair.

KK < AA all in pre.  Another rigged pot in paradise.  Absoultey fucking disgusting.

JJ < KK all in pre.  Here comes doom-switch.  Oh wait the switch has been on for over a month now.

One more cooler I’m flipping the hell out.

6:50 p.m

Over pair KK > top pair six, rag kicker all in on the flop.  Great I won a hand; that’s a new one.

7:20 p.m

AK all in pre on table 8.  I flop the top two pair, but so did he.  Split pot, two pair.  I’m feeling I have to flop quads to win a pot around here.

7:40 p.m

AA < 66.  Got all in on the flop and he has the set.  Great call pre-flop with 66, you definitely had odds there.

Fuck you.

8:10 p .m

3 hour mark in 5 minutes.  Going to break soon.

Somehow I lost -$100 in those 3 hours not making a major mistake.  I’m so sick of this shit.  According to HEM I ran -$198 in EV for those 2500 hands, sounds about right.  So I beat the EV by about $100, I guess that’s all you can really do.

RESUMING

Want to put in another 3 hour session here.  I’m just trying to keep focused and make the right plays.  Also, I installed a patch and got my HUD working again with the new tables.  I thought I played well those first 3 hours today, just a few big pots went terribly. 

Keeping to 12 tables here; NOT 24.

9:40 p.m

KK> A10 all in pre on table 6.  No ace = miracle.

Just doubled on table 4 with a blind fight over a regular. 

AK > JQ all in pre on table 1.  Ace high holds.

KK all in pre all in pre on table 10.  Flop A ,Q,Q im fucked?  Nope it wins wtf wow.  Opponent had 99.

JJ < AA all in pre on table 4.  Wow what a load of shit.  I almost folded as well I knew he was such a fucking nit.  Don’t make the decision to tough on him or anything, we wouldn’t want that…..

AK < A9 all in on the flop on table 1.  The idiot flops a two pair against my top pair after making a retarded preflop call.  I just can’t have one normal fucking session can I?

WOULD ABSOLUTELY RECOMMEND GETTING SCREWED OVER ON POKERSTARS AGAIN!  THE IDIOTIC CALL PRE CERTAINLY DESEREVED THE NUT FLOP.  A++++ EXCELLENT!!! ALSO VERY PORTABLE AND GREAT FOR SHIPPING.  WOULD USE TO SHIP AGAIN!!!

10:30 p.m

ALL IN table 1 on the flop with a top pair.  Held on against the flush draw.

AA < 88 all in pre on table 10 OH MY FUCKING GOD.  SUCK OUT OF THE SESSION AWARD CONGRATS.  When is the last time I’ve been coolered to two outs and flopped a set?  I feel like throwing my chair through my window. 

Fuck me over again; see how fast I log and go meet up with friends like a normal person.

Putting on techno internet radio station I have no idea what else to do.  You think one session in a month I could catch a fucking break.

$12 all in pre KK > 10,4  +$12.  Yes he might be the worst player ever?  Wherever he gets his money from it’s certainly not poker.  Though it’s not where I get my money from either so I guess I can’t really talk shit.

11:00 p.m

Table 1 enormous all in trap play pre with AK :  FOUR CALLERS LOL

FLOP BLANK   turn blank river blank.  Opponent wins with QQ thanks stars.  One of those massive pots any other person wins like one out of 10 and profits every once in a while.

AK < 10 10.  You think one of these would hit like one in twenty?

Table 4 AA> A8 all in pre.  Doubled to 50 and left it.

11:30 p.m

AK < A5 all in preflop.  The usual five comes.

99 < 10J off all in pre.  What a load of fucking shit.  Yes he shoves my button all in with 10J off and gets rewarded.  I knew he was weak.

I have to be again running under -$200 EV, what a shit session.  I’m debating calling it a night after this 3 hour session; I really don’t think I can deal with this again tonight.  I could still stop by a friends party; people should be there all night.

KK < AK all in pre on table 1.  TURN ACE.  Hilarious.  There goes any chance of a reasonable night.

AQ < A8 all in pre.  It never fucking stops.  How else do I play that lol?

12:20 a.m

Just doubled up on two tables.  Doesn’t really make up for hours of getting the shit kicked out of me on suck-outs though.

12:25 a.m

AK < AJ all in pre

AND HE FUCKING HITS JESUS GOD.

I’m done tonight that is fucking it.  I’ve about had enough watching people get rewarded for all plays hitting their bs 4 outers the entire night.

12:30 a.m

Breaking when the blinds hit’ probably for good.  I don’t even want to look at my bankroll.  Reading the horror stories above I know it’s really bad.  I do feel I definitely beat the EV for the session, I was fine with the way I played.

KK> K9 all in post  ok…

12:40 a.m

LOG

Down -$10 in the 3 hours.  HEM says only -$1 in EV in those 2200 hands; total bull-shit because it didn’t pick up the coolers.  I was really getting stomped all night with AK all ins pre.  I feel like you have to win with one or two of them in big spots to show profit most sessions short-stacking.  I mean it should at least be holding when they are all in pre with 4 outs.  Ok I can live with the -$10; it felt a lot worse.  Looking at the statistics I don’t really see a noticeable difference in FPPs gained on the 20-50BB tables vs the old 20-100BB tables.  I think the 20-50 tables actually seem somewhat softer overall; just my take so far.  I can’t speak for the people grinding 24 tables at once short-stacking though.

I might stop by this lame party and then play 4:00a.m to 6:00 a.m later; but I’m a little done with playing tonight.  The last two sessions were very frustrating like usual.  It could be pretty pimp showing up to the party this late as well. 

1:40 a.m

I decided not to go to the party for a few reasons.  It’s 40 degrees out and I don’t feel like standing by a pond outside.   Also, most of the people there are friends from high-school; what’s the point.  I’m good friends with the guy who is having it; but it’s not like it will matter much if I’m there or not.  Most of the people I don’t even feel like seeing as terrible as that sounds.

Also I don’t feel like drinking and driving.  Besides, it would be nice to hit platinum and get back on track here.

I have 12 tables up again; SHRUG.  The tables actually seem solid right now and I filled up 12 pretty fast.

  If I can put in about 3 hours on 12 tables here I should be able to get very close to platinum for the month.  NO MUSIC for the first hour.

Table 6 JJ > A9 all in pre.  The guy says “I’ll gamble” and puts out a $12 call on my 4-bet.

2:05 a.m

99 < 44 all in pre on table 1.  The usual.  Doesn’t take long to pick up where I left off.  Another two outer in paradise.

QQ < Ace-rag all in on the flop.  RIVER ACE lol. 

Why didn’t I go to that stupid party again?

2:50 a.m

Table 12 AQ > QK all in on the flop.  My top pair queen with the better kicker held.  That was a much needed double up there. 

Internet radio back on.

The tables still have decent action right now.  Somewhat impressed relatively.

10 10 < A2 all in pre on table 2.  Why didn’t I go to that party again.

AK < AQ all in pre table 8.  TURN QUEEN.  HOLY MOTHER OF SHIT ARE WE FUCKING JOKING?

Just set mined table 1 to double.

Just flopped a top pair on table 12 to double.

3:10 a.m

Currently playing: Pearl Jam I’m Still Alive.

3:25 a.m

JJ < QQ all in pre on table 4.  -$40 awesome .  Not much I can do there.  It’s possible to make an inhuman lay down; not feasible really.

AA > JJ table 10 .  $15 all in pre doubled.

3:50 a.m

Table 11 just doubled.  Tough pot out-playing someone post with TT, despite the flush draw and two jacks showing.

Table 4 AK < JJ all in pre vs super-suer.  The 50^th fucking AK that has been destroyed today.

4:30 a.m

AK > A10 all in pre on table 11.  In 10 minutes I hit 3 hours; that would be 9 total for Saturday. 

4:40 a.m

99 all in pre table 12  99 < TT of course what a load of shit.  Idiot rewarded for limping under the gun with TT amazing.  One more Stars try me. 

A wave of exhaustion just hit me.  I’m cutting this at 5:00 a.m.  Just achieved Platinum for the month.

5:00 a.m

QQ >  A7 all in on the flop on table 10, had no clue what he was doing there.  Logging when the blinds hit; I’m just so tired.  Enough is enough….

KK < 10 8 all in on the flop.  He lunges all in like a lunatic with top pair 8, 10 kicker… Of course he rivers the miracle two pair.  Disgusting.  Hey it wouldn’t be pokerstars if there wasn’t the kick in the face for the road; I’d expect NOTHING LESS.  That was a big pot as well.

Leaving as the blinds hit; screw this.

TABLE 1 AK < AQ ALL IN ON THE FLOP.  He hits two pair.  FUCKING UN REAL

What an epic fucking screw in the last few hands.  Nothing I can do differently on either of those hands so whatever.

I couldn’t just have a few normal rounds the final 5 god damn minutes; amazing.

Let’s see what other unthinkable garbage can go down in the last 2 hands ….. 35 FOLD, J2 FOLD ok logged wow.  I feel like a suck-out is going to somehow jump out of the monitor and beat the shit of me before I close the main lobby.  I’m going to be walking to my car tomorrow and some guy wearing a shirt that says “suck-out” is going to steal my wallet.

-$41 in 3.5 hours.  I was fine with the way I played tonight.  If I could have held against just one of the stupid suck-outs in the last 5 minutes the session would have been break even.  I now have enough FPPS to purchase another $650 bonus though, and I achieved Platinum for the month so at least I accomplished something.  It looks like this weekend the massive bleed sessions have stopped.  Though the sessions have still been disappointing and just under break even.

PokerStars Statement on Buy-in Amounts (My Thoughts and Analysis Included)

So the changes have been made.  I'm going to start with the link and summary given by PokerStars.  I will then go on to add my thoughts at the bottom of the post.

Here is the link and summary:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/28.../#post18141315

"Summary

Many players have requested that PokerStars alter the minimum and maximum buy-in amounts in many NL and PL cash games. After much consideration, the following changes have been made to ring games as a direct result of player input. These changes are planned for deployment on Tuesday or Wednesday of this week.

Many USD currency Hold’em and Omaha games with No-Limit or Pot-Limit betting will be offered with new and different minimum, maximum, and default buy-in amounts. Most stakes of NL Hold’em and PL Omaha will be offered as follows:

20-50 bb, with default buy-in of 40bb
40-100 bb, with default buy-in of 80bb
100-250 bb, with default buy-in of 200bb and ante equal to 20% of the Big Blind

All games in Euro currency will still offer a buy-in range of 35 to 100 bb, but the default buy-in will be lowered from 100 bb to 70 bb. Euro games are now available at some new stakes.

Most NL and PL tables will be labelled with their minimum and maximum buy-in as above, for example '20-50 bb'. This is an important change as in the past ‘20-100 bb’ tables were unlabeled, and thus practically a default. All exceptions to this labelling are in cases where only one buy-in range is offered for that game type and the buy-in range is unchanged.

All tables will have tooltips describing minimum and maximum buy-in amounts that appear when the mouse moves over the table name or description. These tooltips will include minimum and maximum buy-in information in terms of the currency of the game, such as USD or Euro, as well as in big blinds. As an example, for a $1/$2 NL hold’em game with buy-in range of ’20-50bb’, the tooltip will inform players that they may buy in for a minimum of $40 and a maximum of $100. The tooltips will be localized into each of the PokerStars supported languages. The tooltips will default to 'on' but can be turned on and off by players.

The amount of time a player must wait before returning to the same table with less money has been increased from 30 minutes to 60 minutes for all cash games of all types.

In order to inform players of changes, banners with information about these changes will be displayed above table listings in ring game lobbies for ten days. These banners will briefly describe the changes and will inform players how to turn off tooltips if they so desire. These banners will be localized into each of the PokerStars supported languages.

Some tables will still continue run with old buy-in ranges until there are no players seated.


The Decision Making Process

There has been much forum discussion over the past weeks, months, and years about the influx of players who prefer to buy in to NL and PL games with 20 Big Blinds. The drastic increase in the number of 20 bb stacks at 20-100bb tables has noticeably impacted the play of these games.

PokerStars was in fact a pioneer in offering games with a 50bb minimum buy-in back in March of 2008. That change, like so many others since, was initiated by feedback from players on 2+2. These player-suggested changes are very easy to make in cases where the vast majority of players agree. In this case, there is some significant disagreement amongst players so the evaluation was much more difficult. By no means was this decision easy.

Conversations with players here on 2+2 and in the 2+2 player panel have also been very important in determining the proper course of action in 2010. Every available player email and forum post was examined to create a valuable pool of varied perspectives and knowledge to draw from when making this decision. PokerStars has also conducted multiple surveys on this topic, especially of the recreational players both in Europe and in North America, and tapped the wealth of poker knowledge possessed by members of PokerStars Team Pro.

Yes, this decision took some time to make. Your patience is very much appreciated. Determining the minimum and maximum buy-in amounts is not a decision to be made lightly. It is important that PokerStars make the right decision rather than make a quick, less-informed change.

Reasons for Change

Constantly evolving strategies and trends are characteristics of well designed games of skill. Sometimes dominant new strategies evolve that were unanticipated by those who established the rules of the game. On occasion, the rules must be tweaked to account for new knowledge gained through the collective experience of the community. These adjustments aim to restore balance, depth, and healthy evolution to the game.

After much research, review, and discussion, PokerStars has decided that NL/PL Hold’em and Omaha cash games with 20-100bb buy-ins have evolved to the point where they can no longer be considered well balanced or well designed. As such, change is needed. The ratio of maximum to minimum buy-in at such tables will be lowered to an amount that will generate a more balanced game.

The goal of this change is not to stop players from buying in for 20 big blinds. Players who like to buy-in and play with 20 to 40bb (and 40 to 50bb) stacks are welcome to continue to do so on PokerStars at 20-50bb tables. Many customers, including recreational players as well as long-time customers, both groups being highly valued, prefer to buy in for these amounts. PokerStars expects that these tables will meet the needs of these players.

Players who buy in for stack sizes above 50 big blinds will now see their stacks in play on all streets much more often. The full complement of actions will be available for play on all streets in most pots.

It is important to emphasize that these changes are being implemented to serve the wants and needs of players. Any decision on this topic, including a decision not to change, would displease some number of players. PokerStars believes that these new buy-in amounts are the best possible choices to provide enjoyable games to all players.

Going Forward

PokerStars does believe that these buy-in structures are the best possible given the current state of the games. Games do evolve, however, and very shortly actual game data and experience will supplant theory in discussions of how 20-50bb games will play. PokerStars will be watching and listening. Future tweaks may be necessary from time to time.

Going forward, minimum and maximum buy-ins will be reviewed regularly at the end of each year. Any alterations deemed necessary will be deployed early in the year so that players can make informed choices when planning their attempts for Supernova Elite VIP or other high milestones of the PokerStars VIP Club. No promises can be made that every such change will be made in January or February, but that will be the goal." 

These are some pretty drastic changes.  Here is my quick summary of some disadvantages and advantages the new changes will bring to current players:

Short-Stacker Disadvantages

1.  Player’s can no longer buy in over 50BB on the short-stack tables.

This equates to less rake for the short-stacker.  However, I wouldn’t say the rake will decrease by 50% for the average short-stacker, I’d say a 20% decrease sounds more accurate.  Very rarely on the old tables would you have 2 full stack players go to war with each-other creating a massive pot where the short-stackers benefit.  It happened occasionally, but a LOT less often than most people would think.

I don’t like the fact that a player is not allowed to buy in for over 50BB and sit with short-stacks.  People should have this choice in my opinion.  I know some people would prefer buying in with a bigger stack, but not risking it against 7 other 100BB buy-in full ring pros.  This type of player would generally buy in 40BB-80BB, so he will have an interesting choice to make. 

2.  Rat-hole timer is increased (“The amount of time a player must wait before returning to the same table with less money has been increased from 30 minutes to 60 minutes for all cash game types.”)

Funny story, I’ve been multi-table short-stacking for over 2 months and didn’t even realize there was a “rat-hole timer”.  I actually didn’t realize you were allowed to rejoin tables with a reduced stack (lol?).  So yeah uh 60 minutes seems fair to me.  I’ve never once ran into a situation where not being allowed to join a table I once left drastically affected me.  There were always a good amount of tables.  I just logically went after tables based on $ pot average, players per flop %, and individual players at the table.

This could come into play more, but I think it’s the least of concerns for me.  I’d be short-stacking 12 tables at once going forward.  I think this more will hurt the pro 24-tabling short-stacker who needs to constantly fill new tables to hit his rake-back quota.  I think the rat-hole timer will personally help me.  It makes it easier for a fish to take a seat, rather than a 24-tabling short-stacking pro.

3.  Short-stackers will lose a percentage of their fish?

This is really what it comes down to.  Regarding the casual fish player, how many will chose to buy in 20-50BB as opposed to 40-100BB?  Only time can really tell.  I think the 40-100BB will become a hybrid of the old 50BB+ tables.  It will certainly be better than the old 50BB tables because a casual player who wants to buy-in over 50BB is FORCED to play with no short-stackers, for whatever stupid reason.  So they have to choose whether they would rather fight the pro full-buy in regular or short-stacker.  

4.  Short-stackers can’t chase the fish if they all choose to play 40-100BB.

If this is what 80% of the casual players choose, then short-stacking is pretty much over.  Short-stackers are left to rot on the 20-50BB tables.  But if the casual players do decide on the 20-50BB tables, the regular full-stacker can always go down and play with 50BB full buy in.  So the regular full buy in player is not really affected in anyway, they absolutely won here.

Short-Stacker Advantages

1.  Short-stacking was not completely eliminated.

A sick hybrid form of short-stacking still exists.  If Pokerstars changed the buy in to 35BB+ on all tables it would have been GAME OVER.  Furthermore, if Stars made the buy-in amounts 20-40 BB, and 40+ BB it would have been GAME OVER.  The 10BB over-lap gives short-stackers hope.

2.  There is a chance the casual player will prefer the 20-50BB buy-in tables.

If this is the case the 24-tabling, HUD/PTR bot regulars will have nothing left to bitch about.  The casual player will have shown his preference and that is it.  Now the regular full buy-in players could either drop and buy in 50BB on the 20-50BB table, or drop and play short-stack.  I would like to say there is a small chance that the 40-100BB tables become the same as the old 50BB+ tables, but I see this scenario as almost impossible.  PokerStars has created a massive divide by not allowing people the free choice to buy in over 50BB UNLESS it’s on a 40-100BB table.

3.  There is a chance that psychological factors will cause the fish to choose the 20-50BB buy-in tables.

Imagine a player has $40-$50 and is looking to sit down and have some “fun” playing poker on a 100NL table.  This player might prefer a 20-50BB 100NL table because they will actually feel like they have an advantage with a big stack here.  But on a 40-100BB 100NL buy-in table they may feel over-whelmed.  

 Now imagine a player has $60-$70 he is looking to piss away on a 100NL table and have fun with for the night.  He may try to place the money on the 20-50BB table, but realize he is FORCED to buy-in for a maximum of $50 here.  He will then check the other option, which is the 40-100BB table.  He might see 7 regulars with $100 stacks and think “ok well screw that I might as well play on the short table for $50, at least I don’t feel at a disadvantage.  I don’t want one of these 100BB players to stack me in one play”.

Summary:

This will probably be a huge blow to most short-stackers.  However, only time will tell how this truly plays out.  This is a turbulent and interesting time.  That being said I’m glad I’m not relying on online poker as my source of income at this moment.  I did predict something along these lines a month or so ago, I remember saying:  “I have a feeling a sick hybrid form of short-stacking will still exist.”

It seems the full-stacking regular has won this battle because players are not allowed to buy in with 20BB short-stackers with more than $50 (on a 100NL table for example).  If they want to buy-in for more than $50 the player is forced to sit on a 40-100BB table.  The only way the full buy in player will lose here is if 80%+ of the casual player’s decide they prefer sitting at the 20-50BB tables.  This would be ironic because it would mean the full buy in players actually screwed themselves over.  They actually deserve this fate for all the bitching over the past year, but I don’t see this scenario happening. 

As for me personally I’m just hoping the 20-50BB tables are profitable enough for me to achieve Platinum Star status by short-stacking the beginning of each month for profit.  I have been preparing for this change for over a month.  When it’s said and done I will be going wherever the fish go.  I’m confident in my ability to short-stack and play full buy in profitably going forward.

It's adapt or die time for everyone.