Failing at Poker (5.23.2010)

As of Sunday 5.23.2010 I am failing at poker and life.  This weekend has been a real kick in the face so far.  Let’s start with poker, then cover life in a separate post!

Failing at Poker:

I started off putting in a 4 hour session Saturday afternoon, which went ok I guess.  I was up $23 at the end, so about break even.  Then the wheels started to completely come off.  I put in another session 3.5 hour session 9:00 p.m- 12:30 a.m and lost -$162.  I ran under $100 EV even with HEM stats without the ridiculous coolers.

Not satisfied I decided to put in another 3 hour session from 1:00a.m- 4:00 a.m.  Smacked for -$224.  This was the most disgusting session I have played in a while.

The hands below sum this session up.  If I hold on in these key spots it’s even.  And I’m just picking out the worst hands:

AK < 37s, -$46.  All in on the turn with top pair king, ace kicker.  He calls with bottom pair and a gut-shot and hits.  84% equity and I can’t hold on.

AA< J8s, -$50.  All in on the turn.  I have 80% equity, as he decides to jam his life with mid-pair 8.

AK < JQs -$45.  All in pre-flop.  61% equity, but he uh called $20 pre with JQs?  He happened to hit a queen on the river.

At this point I’m about to kill something, but it keeps going.

28o< QQ -$36.  All in on the flop.  BB special, I flop top two pair against a clown limping on the button with QQ.  I have 82% equity on the turn and again FAIL AT LIFE.

AK< QKo -$30.  All in pre-flop.  Seriously?

KK < AJs -$50.  All in on the flop of T, K, Q.  Of course the dude happened to flop the nut straight against my top set.  Go fuck yourself.

AK< KK -$40.  All in pre.  Tons I can do there.

QQ < AA -$40.  All in pre. 

AA < KTs.  All in on the flop.  Please teach me how to flop top two pair and hold playing that shit.

And I’ll stop going over the hands, I’m quite done.  Just imagine these hands occurring in the span of 2 hours, and that’s my every session.  With all of the complete bull-shit above, if I win just the 3 hands where I’m all in with 80%+ equity I’m down less than $100 for the nightmare session.  Win 4 out of the 8 above and it’s even.  Win 7 out of the 8 like any regular and it’s a WIN!

Some leaks:

1)  I’m still too tight.  I know the ranges I need to be in, and I’m just failing to get there.  I think part of the reason is I’m table selecting to a higher degree, so you have to be somewhat tighter.  A lot of your hand values go down when you have lots of action going on before you.

My 3-bet% still isn’t getting there.  I look back at my sessions and say for example “ok I really should have shoved AJ or AQ there”.  I run so bad I’m afraid someone is going to wake up with a big hand who hasn’t acted once I make the shove.

Really you can afford to risk your 20BB chip stack pre-flop with even a 40% equity playing a short-stack.  That is, if you are assigning someone a range, and you feel you would have 40% equity if he calls your shove.  40% doesn’t sound great, but the regulars do it all the time and never run bad over a billion hands (they are doing something right).  There are plenty of spots I am missing where I would be at least 45% equity if they called a theoretical shove based on their range and I’m just not hitting all of the spots. 

I don’t think I’m doing horrendous, but I have to constantly be pressuring myself to expand my range, and pick profitable spots to shove pre-flop.

2)  Failure to stack up to 20BB.  For whatever idiotic reason, I have been failing to stack up to 20BB during the past month or so when my stack dwindles.  I figured a smaller stack would just give me more leverage to make optimal plays.  Also, I assumed I would lose less money and still be earning rake-back.  I’ve been thinking about this, and I think I’ve been terribly incorrect.  When I do actually get dealt a big hand, I have to maximize what I earn from it.  And I’ve had a problem of being too tight. 

I think the combined problems of being too tight and letting my stacks dwindle has really helped make my poker sessions miserable.  So I put all this time into table selecting, and I let my stack dwindle below 15BB, WHAT THE HELL WAS I THINKING?  I need the stack to pay off when I do hit a big hand, and I need a 20BB stack to pressure more players into folding pre-flop.

So going forward I will be instantly re-buying up to 20BBs when my stack falls below 19.  Here is one instant leak plug.

3)  Weekend and going forward.  I lost -$363 in the combined sessions this weekend in just 11 hours.  My explanations for the disgusting loss in no particular order would be:

A) Running like shit.

B) Failing to stack up to 20BB to maximize profit from my big hands.

C)  Playing too tight (including 3-bet shoving pre and Raising pre with above-average holdings against limpers).

A will never work out for me, I will never run good in my life; I’ve accepted that.  B has been instantly plugged.  And C is a work in progress.  I’m hoping that one day I can have not only B, but C fixed.  I need to get to a point where B and C are indefinitely cancelling out the two-headed dragon A; variance.

Stay tuned for my failing at life post!

Thursday +$108 and 3-bet Leak (5.20.2010)

Well I decided not to go out tonight.  Yes something is obviously wrong with me.  I put in a session.  I played again, even after I totally flipped my shit last night (as some of you may have read the post), even after I swore off poker until the weekend.  I was supposed to hit the bottle tonight to forget about my troubles, put on some charm, pick up a few phone numbers from girls who are attractive (but generally awful human beings), and of course NEVER CALL THEM.  Or pathetically fall into the mistake of calling one and wasting MASSIVE AMOUNTS of time (It happens to the best of us).  Well the swearing off poker idea didn't last very long.  The main friend who was pushing me to go out bailed last minute, so without the social pressure to get train-wrecked I decided to just stay in.  Sure I could have gone out, there is always someone going out.  After I woke up from a nap around 8:30 I felt confident and in the mood to play so I just put in a session.

Quick Summary:

Hours:  3

Tables: 12

Hands Played: 1,610

Profit:  +$108

HEM picked up an EV of +$46, so I didn't run horrendously, but it could have been better.  There were a few suck-outs, but there pretty much is always going to be when you play 12 tables at once.  It could always be better I suppose.  But beating the EV is always a good sign.  I pulled off one pretty big bum-hunt for an $80 pot which was amazing.  The person I was hunting wriggled off the hook, but I ended up bashing a regular instead for an $80 pot.  Of course he bitched something along the lines of "this site is such fucking bs".  Yeah you only make like over 70k a year playing POKER for a living on the site you are cursing, but keep bitching more you pathetic clown.  He was going after the same person probably, he happened to flop top two pair, while I flopped a set.  Obviously he's going to have trouble getting away from that, which he understandably did not.  The guy is a huge prick, so I would rather double up on him than the money spewing mega-donk 3 seats to my left who safely wriggled off the hook.

Anyways, One of the biggest adjustments I made was a constant focus on picking spots to 3-bet shove and be more aggressive.  My 3bet was 4.8% for the session.  Comparably, my 3-bet % for my last 10 sessions combined was a pathetic 3.2%.  This is a leak I will continue to focus on plugging up.  Even tonight I picked a few profitable spots and ran two push-able hands into AA, but that's just unlucky.  I have to keep the aggression up based on my reads and opponent ranges.

Several weeks ago I took a break during a weekend and put in some really solid analysis, EVEN 3-BET PERCENTAGES (HOW USEFUL!!!).  I happened to collect the 3-bet percentage of 5 of the best short-stackers on my stakes combined in case I needed it for future reference.  The sample size was over 20k hands that I had collected while playing tables with them.  Their average 3-bet was 5.16%.  Throwing out the two outliers the average was 5%.  Therefore, anything deviating far below the 5% is going to generally indicate a leak that needs to be plugged.  Sometimes it should be higher than 5% and sometimes lower.  Sometimes you will just happen to be in more 3-bet situations, and vice-versa.

Tonight I felt like my 3-bet % was around normal.  There were two or three border-line spots where I could have shoved, but my instincts told me to hold off on pulling the trigger based on the situations.  Or I was maybe just being a coward, which can happen when you run 4 grand under EV in two months.  Losing streaks tend to make you want to be tighter, which is a trend you have to make sure you don't permanently fall into.     

The 3-bet % is a stat I'm going to be looking at after every session going forward.  I have always had a tendency to be too tight, and want to wait for a higher EV situation.  My intentions are good, but usually a leak.  The online games today are just far to tough to sit around and wait for the very best hands, even on full ring games.  That shit may have flew just fine a year ago, but not today.  Generally the more 3-bet situations you can pick out, the better.

Anyways I was extremely relieved that I ended tonight with a very solid session.  I was happy with my play and profit never hurts.  This should give me confidence going into the weekend.  It was a lot better than getting wasted and screwing up my schedule for two days.  Tomorrow night I will probably not play and get in some needed tennis in or other form of physical activity.  However, I want to keep posting during this upcoming weekend.  I need to answer to someone, I need to keep thinking A LOT, and constantly analyzing.  I won't be a stranger when it comes to posting here.   I'm not doing so bad.  3 out of the last 4 sessions I have profited, so my job is to do all in my power to keep up that trend to the best of my ability.  It will be great going to sleep not pissed off.

Hope anyone who stumbled here has a great night!

Cheers,

-bag

The EV of Limping or Shoving LP with a Short-Stack (Full-Ring)

The analysis here will discuss whether you should push all in or limp with a low pocket pair when the action is on you with a short-stack of 20BB in the SB or BB and 3 opponents have limp-called ahead.  It was always my belief that you should limp here, but some comments inspired by BH made me want to go into the math of this scenario more.  If you shove just how screwed are you?

Analysis A: EV of set-mining with low-pairs Late Position with 20BB:

Going forward let’s say specifically we are holding 33 in this spot.  I’ve argued that it is more +EV in the long-run set mining in this spot with minimized variance, even with just 20BB. 

I valued a successful set mine here at approximately +20.5BB (+4.5BB from the blinds and limpers and +16BB from amount expected to win).  Let’s look at the approximate +EV of set-mining late with a short-stack based on 8 scenarios:

Scenario 1 lost .5 BB and folded.

Scenario 2 lost .5 BB and folded.

Scenario 3 lost .5 BB and folded.

Scenario 4 lost .5 BB and folded.

Scenario 5 lost .5 BB and folded.

Scenario 6 lost .5 BB and folded.

Scenario 7 lost .5 BB and folded.

Scenario 8 won back the .5 BB and WON +20.5BB.

In the first 7 scenarios combined you lose 3.5BB by calling and folding when you miss your set on the flop.  Now we include scenario 8 and average winning 20.5BB when we hit.  Overall you are profiting around 17 BB for every 8 scenarios here by set mining, with very little variance.

Analysis B. EV of Shoving with low-pairs Late Position with 20BB:

Now let’s do the same 8 scenarios only we shove all-in.  I’m going to assume at least 3 out of the 8 times you will be called with 44-TT.  This is based on my experience full-ringing at rig-stars.  Though I really think it would be more like 5 out of 8 times, but I’ll assume 3 here for fun.  Next I’m going to assume you’re called 3 out of the 8 times with a coin-flip situation (this includes someone getting tricky with a big hand like AK, or someone just clueless for that matter who decides to stack off with A5+ or whatever).  For easy math we will use 50% equity.  Now let’s assume that 2 out of the 8 times everyone folds around and you pick up the pot.  So here we go:     

Scenario 1.  Shove 20BB.  You’re called with 44-TT by LIMPER 3 or 4.  You’re 20% to win.  You lose -20BB.  But remember we suck out 20% of the time so knock that -20BB down to -16BB.

Scenario 2.  Shove 20BB.  You’re called with  44-TT by LIMPER 3 or 4.  -16BB.

Scenario 3.  Shove 20BB.  You’re called with  44-TT by LIMPER 3 or 4.  -16BB.

Scenario 4.  Shove 20BB.  Coin-flip situation.  +4BB Since we will include the 1.5BB in blinds and 3BB from the other limpers on top of our 50% equity.    

Scenario 5.  Shove 20BB.  Coin-flip situation.  Again, +4BB.

Scenario 6.  Shove 20BB.  Coin-flip situation.  +4BB.

Scenario 7.  Shove 20BB.  Every-one pathetically folds.  No one person had the courage to call!!! What a cowardly table you play on.  This is an awesome situation.  +4BB

Scenario 8.  Shove 20BB.  COWARDS!!!  +4BB

Scenario 4-8 combined = +20BB. 

Scenario 1-3=  -36BB

Total combined = -12BB

I’m coming up with -12BB for the 8 scenarios when shoving, and this is being generous based on my experience. 

Analysis C. Vacuum Analysis without actual stats

For fun let’s say we come up with some stats that say in a vacuum the players will fold around 5 out of 8 times which could be close to likely.  Certainly not likely on my stakes and format, but perhaps close to likely if we took every full-ring poker situation in the 100NL online universe where we shove the limpers with our 20BB stack holding 33.  Then let’s say 1 of those times you will run into 44-TT (Yeah right), and 2 out of those times you will coin-flip.  This is the best possible scenario I could ever imagine shoving your 20BB short stack with 33 from SB with 3 limpers on a full-ring table.  Here we go.

Scenario 1:  You’re called with 44-TT by LIMPER 3 or 4.  -16BB.

Scenario 2:  Shove 20BB.  Coin-flip situation.  +4BB.

Scenario 3.  Shove 20BB.  Coin-flip situation.  +4BB.

Scenario 4.  Shove 20BB.  Coin-flip situation.  +4BB.

Scenario 5.  Shove 20BB. THE COWARDS FOLD!  +4BB

Scenario 6.  Shove 20BB. THE COWARDS FOLD!  +4BB

Scenario 7.  Shove 20BB. THE COWARDS FOLD!  +4BB

Scenario 8.  Shove 20BB. THE COWARDS FOLD!  +4BB

Scenario 1 equates to -16BB.  The rest of the scenarios combined will yield around 28BB of profit based on the 8 scenarios combined.

This would mean +12BB based on the sample size, even if in our perfect vacuum world we only ran into a 44-TT hand 12.5% of the time.  But going back to the first example our set-mine profit still turned out to be +17BB.

So overall I’m calculating at least a +5BB EV by CALLING for the set in this situation, as opposed to jamming.  This +5BB is a huge number, and that is still assuming the best case scenario I can imagine for shoving here, which would be facing utter domination only 1 out of 8 times.

Looking at this analysis in a vacuum:

A logical factor to consider here would be the % of times that your opponents are in fact dealt 44-TT.  I could research this and get the exact numbers, but I won’t since I’m at work right now and all poker is blocked.  Also I think it would be somewhat of a waste of time.  Getting caught up doing analysis in a vacuum is a great way to become totally out of touch with the actual situation.  I think this the kind of thing that many people go wrong on.  I think this is why David Sklansky can’t win a tournament to save his life.  The math wiz David hasn’t won a World Series bracelet since 1982, yet large circles still worship his books and theories.  Why hasn’t he won more?  Because in a vacuum his plays are correct.  Fine justify all of your plays in a vacuum if that makes you sleep at night.

Furthermore, my vacuum analysis above was when I calculated with the massive assumption that our opponents will fold 5 out of 8 times to our shove.  Honestly, my original analysis “B” sums up my actual beliefs (-12BB per 8 situations), while the vacuum analysis “C” was just being nice (+8BB per 12 situations).  Analysis B was where the opponents will fold around 2 out of 8 times.  Shoving here becomes a negative EV play, I can’t justify it any differently.  Keep in mind 3 limpers ahead of you is a VERY rare situation on PokerStars full-ring games.  Their ranges favor holding hands like 44-TT.  To push you need to absolutely have a sick almost out of this world HUD read on all 3 limpers.  I’d say that no short-stacker at full ring 100NL stakes is good enough to make this push profitably.

I didn’t mean to pick on the 33 hand.  This was just a starting point for me.  I think each hand will have a slightly different result.  I still personally would feel comfortable set mining anything under pocket 88 here based on a variance and EV perspective.

In conclusion if you’re holding a low pair in the SB with a short-stack on a full ring table and have 3 limpers ahead of you FOR THE LOVE OF GOD LIMP.  Calling is the way to go.

I’m open to any thoughts on this analysis.  Especially from FK and BH who brought this particular discussion up and got me interested on justifying my out-look.  I wouldn’t be surprised if I made a few mistakes in their, I’m no David Skalnsky by any means.

Either way this was a good exercise to waste an hour of my useless work day.

-bag

MIND-BLOWN: Down -$157 in 3 hours (5.19.2010)

Sometimes it’s just not your night.  Or for me on PokerStars it is NEVER GOING TO BE my night.  The absolute trainwreck bull-shit continues.  My blood is boiling right now.

I really don’t know where to start or why I am even writing this post in such a shitty mood. 

Started off brilliantly.  I open on the blinds with JJ.  A standard complete fucking nit regular jams me $20 all in.  After thinking a while I determined I just had enough equity to call on his range.  My overpair fails against AA OF COURSE.  I mean what other hand what he have?  It couldn’t be AK , AQ, TT, 99, complete shit, I don’t know whatever.

Shortly after my KK is somehow demolished as an opponent holding TJ flops T,T, J.

Then a full buy in lost QQ < KK all in preflop.

Then my KK is HAMMERED by two outs as the all in 33 preflop catches a miracle set.

Then another massive suck-out as clown-box plays A8s.  He flops  a lucky set, and hits an even luckier flush after being all in on the flop.

THEN THE BEST PART.  I lose two full buy ins FLOPPING SETS within the span of 5 minutes.  The first I’m all in with 88 on a 9d, 8d, Ts board.  The guy is holding JQ OFFSUIT.  Of course it holds.  AGAIN what else would he have??????   The dude with a 34% fucking VPIP.

The next kick in the face was epic beyond belief.  I price in preflop with 66 for a set mine.  Flop comes 6s, 5c, 3d.  I’M HOLDING 66.  All the while thinking this should be funny, let’s see how I lose another full $40 pot.

So we go all in on the flop:  turn 7s, river 9s.  At this point I know he has something ridiculous there is just no way I hold in a pot like this.  SURE ENOUGH HES HOLDING 44, for the fucking straight.

HOW YOU LOSE $160 more in 3 hours with $20 buy-ins:

-$40  AQ < QK all in on the turn.  I'm holding a dominating top pair with 74% equity, but he rivers the miraculous straight.

-$36  TOP SET 66 < 44 all in on the flop.   80% equity raped.

-$30 KK < 55 all in preflop.  Another 80% equity LOST.

-$40 QQ < KK all in preflop.

-$40 JJ < AA all in preflop.

-$40 88 < JQ on the flop.  Hit’s the top straight against my set and holds.

-$30 AK < TT all in pre.

-$30 AK < JJ all in pre.

-$25 QQ < TJ  He flops trip jacks.  Yeah plenty I can do to get away from that hand!

- $25  JJ< A8s .  Sucked out by the flush-draw.  SWEET!

So win 4 of the hands above and the session is completely salvageable.  Win the three 80% equity hands and win one coin-flip and the session is around even.  Win 6 or 7 out of the 10 above hands like any super-user who has played a million hands on Stars and suddenly YOU’RE A WINNER BABY.  Can I play any of the hands above different?  I could have maybe hero folded the JJ, the guy was that tight.  It's an unthinkable move that no other short-stacker can really make, but thats about it.  Maybe fold the QQ all in pre because my account is rigged?  Maybe fold the KK pre because I know 55 will catch?  Are we serious?

Could have should have would have.  The story of my last 2 months.  I  have ran -$4,200 EV in 175,000 hands, and that’s by HEM standards, that doesn’t even include QQ running into KK 50 fucking times during a week.

So that’s it great night here.  Not sure how I’m ever going to dig out of this hole.  I feel like I could play an entire year on this site and not have this luck balance out.  I’m currently 62% to Super-nova so I feel I’m kind of trapped pushing forward on this rigged ass site.  I have to relax and get over the past, but I’m having a hard time.  Each miserable session just brings everything back.

Future generations are going to me as a case study on variance.  THE MOST UNLUCKY MOTHER FUCKER ALIVE HERE HE IS.  He can’t play 170,000 hands without running anywhere near the average during any 10k interval.

So I’m done.

SORRY SORRY SORRY.

What a horrible unproductive post.

Fuck my life.

AND LOGIC:

I AM ALREADY DOWN -$1,150 on this month.  If I save all of my FPPs here on out I have figured out what I will clear when or if I do ever hit Super-nova.  It’s going to be around $2900.  So if I lose another $1,000  I’m still profiting +$750 for that time span.  If I lose -$1,750 in that time span I break even.  How do you could you lose $-$1,750 in that time span?  How do you put so much time into your game and not at least break even?  Well leave it to me, I will find a way as always.

If I lose $1,750 in that time span I break even and move on with my life.

If I lose $2,500 in that time span I lose $750 and I move on with my life.  Great $750, that's what I should be paying rent anyways.

If I break even I gain +$1750 during that time span.  That is more than my day job and I can fucking quit.

If I PROFIT during that time span I am golden.

It’s salvageable, but I can’t keep running like I have been or I am completely fucked.  This -$200 in 3 hours bull-shit has got to end.  It is unthinkable.

Going out tomorrow night and getting wasted on a Wednesday screw it.  I’m not playing another god-damn hand until the weekend where I’m going to put some massive volume in.  Hopefully I can find my sanity by then, this absolutely sucks.

Well done on that confidence building comeback session!

EDIT 5/19/2010 6:00 p.m-  Please ignore this pathetic bitching of a post.  This is what can happen if you're in a horrible mood and not mentally prepared to take a really bad run.  Also, the calculation of the $2900 is massively off, proving just how unclearly I was thinking at the time.  I'm still on track here and have to stay focused.  I'm going out tonight, but I will be back for the weekend war.  Not even close to giving up.

-bag

Barely Surviving- Life and Poker (5.17.2010)

I am just barely surviving right now.  My weekend schedule has unfortunately come into direct conflict with my day job on Mondays, this is a reoccurring theme.  I usually tend to stay up around 5:30a.m on Saturday.  That’s great until Sunday night rolls around and I can’t get any sleep.  The past few Sundays I have fallen asleep well past 3 a.m., and forced myself awake around 6:50a.m.  It’s a combination of going to bed late the night before and also having so much on my mind to a point of being restless.  This really is something I have been able to adapt or get used to, I usually just suffer through Monday, go to bed early, and my schedule returns to somewhat reasonable on Tuesday.

Sunday I was going to put in a session from 7:00p.m-10:00p.m or so.  I ended up getting into somewhat of a groove bum-hunting and didn’t end the session until 2:00a.m.  I actually had fun playing for once and netted around  +$250 in profit, so a rare win was nice.  Even when I went to bed I don’t think I fell asleep for another hour and a half.

Last night’s session represented a glimpse of hope I think.  I’m hoping to build off the session and start a comeback.  Other than that the last week has been absolutely miserable.  Even with eventual rake-back I’m still down around $400 for the month.  My luck hasn’t changed at all, the EV downward spiral continues, and so does the nightmare. 

Going forward I’m going to try to break down some individual sessions and post updates on here, even if the updates are short.  I think it will be good to have to “answer to someone” during this ridiculous losing streak.  I don’t feel bad about the way I’m playing.  If you lose 7 out of 8 times when you are all in with 70% equity + and 8 out of 10 coin flips there is really no escaping a doomed session.  It seems like every session goes like that for me.  Even last night with the big win I lost 3 full buy-ins all in against two-outers, so nothing I can do there.

I’m still shocked with regards to how un-realistically bad short-stacking has been going for me.  Hopefully I can pull together a profitable stretch soon.  I would say that the tides just have to turn eventually, but I know all too well that statement isn’t true for me.  I could just keep running like shit FOR 200K MORE HANDS, so what the hell can you do?  I guess stop playing or just keep getting all in while every two-outer, 4-outer, suck-out, cooler, and coin-flip under the sun destroys you.

One adjustment I’m going to make is gradually phasing in the tables during the next week as I play.  Some sessions over the weekend I played well over 16 tables at once and got hammered.  Yeah I’ve been eternally doom-switched, but I need to minimize the variance.  I need to make sure I don’t kill myself pushing for Super-Nova status.  Swinging 200 dollars on 20 tables to gain a measly 1k VPPs will obviously never be worth it. 

So this next week I’m capping at 12 tables, I have no idea why I got away from that rule I set in the first place.  I also plan to start with around 6 of the worst tables I can find, while looking for bad players to stack up and go after.  This is one area I’ve seemed to do well in when I focus on it.