Updates and Supernova Time-Line (5.31.2010)

The Week and Going Forward

My loss-rate seemed to actually be stabilizing during the first 20 hours of play this week.  I wouldn’t say I ran well during any of the sessions, but yeah that’s usual.  Combined I was only down around -$100, and that included a 3 hour -$148 session last Tuesday.

Then of course I play 2 hours last night and get slammed for -$221.  So I finished the week down around -$300 thanks to that bull-shit.  Let me just say I will have nightmares about those two hours.  I looked at the top ten losing hands and there wasn’t much I could do to avoid it.  The third all in two-outer I lost I actually screamed something incoherent out loud.  So I guess I haven’t been able to completely eliminate my emotions.

The only good thing that came out of this week was I hit my 70,000 VPP mark, which was my goal.  I am exactly 70% to Supernova.  I plan to put in at least 6 hours tonight, which should put me a little ahead of pace volume wise for the upcoming week.

Time-Line to Supernova

I feel Supernova is my ticket to quitting my day job.  With this status I plan to comfortably leave corporate.  I’ve been running bad, but I have to keep the faith that it will balance out eventually.  If I keep making the right plays things will eventually look up.  Even the worst case scenario of playing break-even with Supernova status = freedom.

Last week I put together a road-map that plots out exactly when I plan to hit Supernova.  It includes specific hours that I need to play each week to hit my goals.  This time line is very aggressive, and I will have to stay extremely focused.  That being said, if I play around break even during this stretch I would feel comfortable quitting my day job around the end of July (though the goal is obviously to always profit at the highest level possible).  Looking at everything I’m speculating my personal independence day to be July 26^th, 2010.  I really don’t know how things are going to go, but this is the goal I am setting.  If I run like I did the past two months I almost certainly won’t have the confidence to quit on this date.  But worst case scenario I push the date back another month, and I continue to torture myself.  Hell I’m not going to pretend this is easy in any way.

So here is my time-line.  I’m going to be referring to this during the upcoming month to stay focused and track my progress:

Week 1:  May 24^th (Monday)- May 31^st (Monday)

Mandatory Target: 4,300 VPPs.

Estimated Time:  24 hours of 12 tabling.

Notes:  This goal is complete.

Expected Total at Conclusion:  70,000 VPPs. (CHECK)

Week 2:  June 1^st (Tuesday)- June 6^th (Sunday)

Mandatory Target: 5,000 VPPs.

Estimated Time: 24-hours of 12 tabling.

Notes:  This is going to be a hell of a grind during this time frame.  But it should be fully possible because I can put in extra time Sunday night, which will be a full session.  Being off the 7^th, I can grind into the wee hours of Monday morning, which should be fun!

Expected Total at Conclusion:  75,000 VPPs.

Week 3:  June 7^th (Monday)- June 13^th (Monday)

Mandatory Target 15,000 VPPs.

Estimated Time:  60 Hours of 12 tabling.

Notes:  This is the full week I took off to play poker.  The mandatory target may not be humanly possible for me, but I’m going to try to push as close to 15,000 VPPs during this time-frame as possible.  This is going to be a complete war, I have to be nearly 100% consumed by poker with no other distractions to give myself any sort of chance at hitting this target.

Even with 60 hours of 12 tabling I’m only calculating around 12,000 VPPs, so my projections are still short.  I may plan to comfortably mix in 18 tables at peak times to help hit the target.  Also I’m going to try to put in some extra time during week 2 which should help.

Expected Total at Conclusion:  90,000 VPPs.

Week 4:  June 14^th ( Monday)- June 20^th (Sunday)

Mandatory Target:  5,000 VPPs.

Estimated Time:  24 hours of 12 tabling.

Notes:  Keep pushing!  I’m back at the day job now, but I should really have a great system in place by this point.  Or I’ve dumped in around $2,000 more to fight the EV bleed, and I’m hating life.  ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

Expected Total at Conclusion:  95,000 VPPs.

Week 5:  June 22^nd (Tuesday)- June 27^th (Sunday)

Mandatory Target:  5,000 VPPs.

Estimated Time:  24 hours of 12 tabling.

Notes:  24 more hours of grind on top of the day-job.  There is still tons of work to be done.  Here I expect to hit Supernova.  The question is whether I stumble into Supernova or bleed money the entire way.  If I bleed money massively I may have to push back my freedom date.

Expected Total at Conclusion:  100,000 VPPs (SUPERNOVA BIATCH)

Week 6:  June 28^th (Monday) – July 4^th (Sunday)

Mandatory Target:  5,000 VPPs.

Estimated Time:  24 hours of 12 tabling.

Notes:   The goal of this week is to map out a win-rate at Super-nova status.  This will depend on how terrible you happen to be running at the time, but I expect to get a solid estimation.  It sucks that the 4^th of July falls on the weekend, I could have used an extra day off from the day job to grind.

Expected Total at Conclusion:  105,000 VPPs

Week 7:  July 5^th (Monday)- July 11^th (Sunday)

Notes:  At the conclusion of this week I should be able to take my last 40-50 hours of play and map out a win-rate (hopefully?) going forward.  If I’m winning anything per 100 BBs I’m very happy.  If I’m playing break even I’m still making more than my day job.  If I’m slightly losing, I still might be ok as crazy as that sounds.  If I’m losing substantially then I will be forced to push back my corporate secession date and regroup.

This would be the time to put in a 2-week notice.  Or if things are going well fuck the two week notice and GOOD-BYE TO YOU.

Weeks 8 and 9: July 12^th- July 23^rd.

The last two weeks I rot in a dark shitty office?  Take this time to get focused and prepared for your next challenge in life.  Keep grinding out at least 5,000 VPPs during these two weeks, but at this point I won’t have to kill myself with two jobs, since my path is finally set going forward with the decision to quit.

July 26^th (My personal independence day):  Freedom, purpose, and passion now return to my life for the first time in almost three years.  EVERY WEEK, EVEN FROM MONDAY- FRIDAY.