A Massive Decision Looming (6.29.2010)
Tuesday, June 29, 2010 at 6:02PM The beach was once again amazing, but a tease. Three days of absolute freedom only to be back to my corporate chains and failing poker goals.
I had a discussion with my brother (cell phone) when I was laying out at the beach Sunday. It ended with: “I’m putting in my two week notice when I get back”.
And here I am, STILL HAVEN’T PUT IT IN YET. By the end of this week I should have a bankroll worked out going forward for when I do quit. Not only will I have a bankroll, I will have a back-up plan, and another back-up plan in case I need additional financing during an unimaginable downswing. And even with all of these epic kick-ass plans in place I’m still understandably terrified. My win-rate has yet to stabilize online. There is no evidence that things are going to suddenly change for me. Furthermore, there is no evidence that hitting Supernova will magically fix all of my "problems". I think I’m in for a very tough road ahead when I do quit.
I have confidence that everything will stabilize, especially when I’m committing a full 40 hours per week to poker, but yeah I’m a little nervous to say the least. It’s scary to think about going negative a month or two without that weekly corporate bail-out check coming in.
I think I should at least wait until I hit Supernova before I put in my two week notice. That was my original plan and I should probably stick to it even know I have a bankroll worked out that will give me a legitimate shot to succeed. It really comes down to an improved financial safety net against having my freedom back a week or two early. What is more important? That is the question I have to answer right now. The safety net seems like a no brainer, but then again no one has experienced what I have during the last 2.5 years.
I’m going to aim to get all my finances in order and put in the two week notice next Friday, July the 9th (I think). This would make my last day July the 23rd. I would certainly have cleared Supernova by then. And if my current format continues to go terribly I will have the bankroll to switch and adjust. I can drop to 50NL full buy in multi-tabling and/or live low-stakes NL in Atlantic City. I’m not going to sit there and bleed 3 grand a month online if things aren’t going well. I’ll set a monthly stop point and switch formats if I need to.
That’s really all I have right now. This is a stressful, sometimes exciting, and somewhat terrifying time for me. I’ll be looking to put in at least 20 hours of play this weekend, which should be completely feasible with Monday being a holiday.
-bag
Reader Comments (5)
I may have asked this before in different words but I don't think so.
If you were to play exactly break even poker on your current schedule for an entire year, what profit would you make doing this at Supernova status?
Also, what will you do about medical coverage?
Bags,
Work an extra two weeks or even four if it would provide the solace and confidence you need to succeed. A few weeks is nothing in the big picture. 12 weeks would not be unreasonable if that was what you needed to make the difference. You want to take your best shot not just any shot. Having said that, I really like it that you have a dedicated roll and a back up plan to fortify your roll, if necessary. Also, that you are willing to be flexible online/live. To succeed, you just have to make the right amount of money. The source, whether online, live, or a combination does not matter much. Keep thinking and planning. You are closing in. Stay focused and good luck.
1:20 a.m here! Thank you so much for the comments guys, I can't stress it enough seriously. I hope to get your continued feed-back on whatever I decide, I could use it.
FK,
I’m going to get back to you later if these calculations are slightly incorrect. Keep in mind they are worst case scenario if we calculate based on my current schedule. However, I’m calculating around $23,000 per year without taxes if I quit my job today, and play break-even with Supernova status for an entire year. This would equate to a revenue of around $1,900 per month which would be enough for me right now to pay expenses and save. This calculation was done with 12-tabling 40 hours per week, including vacation time. I fully expect to get up to at least playing 16 tables at once comfortably by the end of the first month. I already play 16 tables at once right now during peak times, and I’ve crammed 24 before. Once I install a hot-key program I feel the sky is the limit here. The key is BREAK EVEN, which seems stupidly unattainable at this point for god-knows what reason. If there is a reason besides -EV it's my 3-bet % pre-flop, this I know. But if I ever run break-even EV yeah it’s very feasible. But playing a year I’d damn sure assume I’d be playing well above break-even poker after the first month or so (if I can survive that long). But there are no "IFS", I will survive that long with the bankroll plans I have going forward. My fucking cat would survive that long with the bankroll I will be working with. Sure his life might suck but he won't be broke after the first two months.
Keep in mind I'm never expecting to get extremely wealthy playing poker, or even upper middle class for that matter. I expect to make enough to support myself and live with the freedom I want during the next few years and that is all. Poker is not about the money to me. Poker is about making the correct decisions again and again over hundreds of thousands of hands. Poker is about praying that the God's of EV don't destroy your village and rape your women even after you just made the correct EV play for the ninetieth out of the last hundredth time. Poker is about doing what I am passionate about, what I enjoy doing. And sometimes that means scraping by anyway possible to make a living doing what you love to do.
Also, I have and pay for my own health insurance plan. I made damn sure I didn’t switch to a corporate plan when I started my job because I didn’t want them to ever hold that over me if things didn’t go well. I pay a few hundred extra per year, but it is WELL worth it.
Lucypher,
Your points are extremely logical and well taken. I just feel I’m delaying the inevitable collision course at this point by torturing myself with two jobs. It’s getting to a point where I sometimes worry about my physical health and well being because I have such a messed up schedule at certain times. What if I total my $6,000 car because I wanted to grind that extra 3 hours the night before? There goes my awesome bank-roll plan! 4-12 weeks would not be unreasonable at all in the big picture (unless I wreck my car). However, I also want to enjoy some of this summer, it is very important to me. And I have lined up the financial backing to feel I have an over 90% shot to succeed so I might decide to just fight through the storm for the month or whatever. Either way I play this situation, the first month or two will still probably be a complete war. Besides, I could always step back and line up another job if I hit rock bottom, or go into real estate, etc, etc. However, I don’t think it’s feasible that I will hit rock bottom. Even if I crash online, I can still drop to full buy in format and/or drive to Atlantic City to regroup.
I was discussing this with my brother who is by far the most successful person I know at his age (More successful than 99.5% of the population to be honest). I really look up to him and a point he mentioned that stuck in my mind was: "There is never really a good time to make a change this big". I will keep you posted on what I decide. I’m still uncertain on the exact quit date. Right now I just want to put in some very solid volume this weekend while enjoying some of the holiday with friends and family. And as soon as July 1st hits I will begin depositing $3,000 more online. I will do this in $600 increments throughout the month of July.
-bag
Best of luck, man. You have the plan in place so I say pull the trigger. You're still going to hit Supernova status so putting in another 4 weeks at the office doesn't end up changing a hell of a lot in the long run and we're into July now so enjoy the rest of the summer while we still have it.
If you're close enough to Borgata you can nit it up in the 2/5 games and make decent cash. They play crazy over there.
FK,
Thanks man, yeah I think I should put in my 2-week notice next Friday. Even then I would still be in the office three-four more weeks (including this week and next week), and I would hit Supernova by the time I stopped receiving a weekly check. I could hit Supernova in two weeks right now even with my day job if I busted my ass.
And that basic calculation above didn't include a few important positives::
A) No longer being trapped in an office 9-5, 5 days a week for a year.
B) The elimination of commute. I literally sit in 10 hours of traffic minimum each week right now. It's quite a waste of life.
C) The ability to make my own schedule and travel.
D) At least $250 saved per month cutting out gas expense from commuting.
E) $125 per month saved by cutting parking out.
D) Less mileage put on my car. It's paid off and I would like it to last at least another 70,000+ miles. Eliminating the commute will also save me some in the long run here.
I'm in striking distance to all of the casinos in Atlantic City including the Borgata. It's a 3 - 3.5 hour drive for me. I could even try to find something on Craigslist where I could line up a cheap temp room for a week or so. There is always some atrocious 1-2 and 2-5 NL play to be found running rampant in that city.