Updates and SN Time-Line Adjusted (6.14.2010)
Monday, June 14, 2010 at 12:24PM The Week and Going Forward
I just got back from the beach late last night. It was an awesome time. I’m having some serious beach/Russian-girls/friends/partying withdrawal. I feel bad that I did sort of bail out of my original plan to play as much poker as possible during my week off, but that’s life. I went out Thursday night and I had some issues with a friend. She ended up pissing me off very badly. The situation helped push me to take a last minute trip when I woke up Friday morning, which I did. Also I decided to not call her again for a long time, even know we have been friends for about 7 years. We also hooked up a while ago and we are attracted to each-other, but I won’t get into this. It’s a confusing situation that only I would be in.
Anyways, this was the first time I took off a week from the day job during the past year. I didn’t miss it for a single minute. So now it’s back to the grind, which is really depressing to even think about. Then again my past amazing weekend should be used to remind me of what I am exactly fighting for. I’m fighting for my freedom.
Last week was not going so great on the poker tables, I’ve yet to find a win-rate. However, there were some positives from the experience:
1) I can see myself being able to handle playing full-time.
Last week I played over 9 hours 6 days in a row and did not feel burned out.
2) I can handle the lifestyle.
I didn’t mind going to bed at 5- 6 a.m, waking up at 1:00p.m, enjoying some of the day, and then playing poker again at night.
3) I’m closer to Supernova.
82% there.
And some reasons for net loss on the tables:
1) I was over-working myself without taking enough breaks.
Playing poker 9.5 hours a day was a little much.
2) A hybrid short-stack strategy is risky, and it sucks when you’re on the bad end of it.
Bum hunts were miserably failing, and some big lost pots added up which I discussed in previous posts.
3) I was a little too aggressive based on my bankroll.
I got involved in a lot of border-line spots shove 3-betting all in preflop. Going forward I’m not going to try to do too much, but I will constantly be looking for spots to expand and improve. When you’re running like shit it isn’t wise to push very borderline spots with a small bankroll.
4) I ran VERY badly.
It’d be nice to run BREAK EVEN EV for a week. YES I’LL TAKE BREAK EVEN, my life is that messed up. I can’t even stress enough how thrilled I’d be to run break even EV for 40 hours. I’d probably throw a massive party. BREAK EVEN EV PARTY!
5) I put much of my play in during the tougher stretch of the week.
I busted on the tables Sun-Wed. Really the better traffic would have been Wed-Saturday. If I could go back in time and do the week again it would have been smarter to go to the beach Mon-Wed, and play poker Thurs-Saturday. I thought part of the reason I ran up $100 in less than 2 hours on Thursday was because horrible players were flooding the tables, even more so than usual. Then again if I went to the beach Mon-Wed there would have been a chance I just stayed down there the entire week. Doing the trip Fri-Sun at least forced me back since the day job called on Monday morning.
Adjusted Time-Line to Supernova:
Right now I stand around 82,000 VPPs, I’m 82% there. Though if I keep running this badly I might not even be able to quit my job once I hit Supernova. I’m hoping things chill the fuck out from an EV standpoint going forward. But if my win-rate isn’t there once I hit then I simply have to construct my next plan of action. It might even turn too dropping to full buy in at lower stakes.
Week 1: June 14th ( Monday)- June 20th (Sunday)
Mandatory Target: 5,000 VPPs.
Estimated Time: 24 hours of 12 tabling.
Notes: This week is really going to suck. I just teased myself by taking a quick trip to the beach. The hardest part is going to be refocusing. I have to get ready for a continued war.
Expected Total at Conclusion: 87,000 VPPs.
(EDIT 88k VPPs at 6/21/2010. On pace)
Week 2: June 22nd (Tuesday)- June 27th (Sunday)
Mandatory Target: 5,000 VPPs.
Estimated Time: 24 hours of 12 tabling.
Notes: The targets mentioned are mandatory. Hopefully at this point I will be mixing in some 16 table sessions during peak times to help pick up VPPs. If I do this I can be working more efficiently. However, I’m not forcing anything if things continue to go horribly.
Expected Total at Conclusion: 92,000 VPPs
Week 3: June 28th (Monday) – July 4th (Sunday)
Mandatory Target: 5,000 VPPs.
Estimated Time: 24 hours of 12 tabling.
Notes: In my first time-line projection I had a week set aside that would be used to map out a Supernova win-rate. I think this is a little un-necessary. I really only need to play about 10 hours at Supernova to see how many FPPs I would be earning. Then I just figure out the win-rate I need to be at with the FPPs/expected bonuses combined.
Expected Total at Conclusion: 97,000 VPPs
Week 4: July 5th (Monday)- July 11th (Sunday)
Mandatory Target: 5,000 VPPs
Estimated Time: 24 hours of 12 tabling.
Notes: At the conclusion of this week I should be able to take my last 40-50 hours of play and map out a win-rate (hopefully?) going forward. If I’m winning anything per 100 BBs I’m very happy. If I’m playing break even I’m still making more than my day job. If I’m slightly losing, I still might be ok as crazy as that sounds. If I’m losing substantially then I will be forced to push back my corporate secession date and regroup.
This may be the time to put in a 2-week notice. Or if things are going well fuck the two week notice and GOOD-BYE TO YOU.
Expected Total at Conclusion: 103,000 VPPS (Supernova hit)
Weeks 5 and 6: July 12th- July 23rd.
The last two weeks I rot in a dark shitty office? Take this time to get focused and prepared for your next challenge in life. Keep grinding out at least 5,000 VPPs during these two weeks, but at this point I won’t have to kill myself with two jobs, since my path is finally set going forward with the decision to quit.
July 26th (My personal independence day): Freedom, purpose, and passion now return to my life for the first time in almost three years. EVERY WEEK, EVEN FROM MONDAY- FRIDAY.
Reader Comments (2)
Bags,
Congrats on what you have accomplished so far. Don't discount the value of the steady paycheck. You can "phone it in" on the job many times but never at poker. Don't F off this reference lightly - you may need it. The "long run" is longer than you may imagine and 2 weeks is minor in the "long run" - which is what poker is all about.
I really think you should find some live games to play in. From what I gather from your posts, and what I know about low stakes NLHE live players, you would do well in most cash games.
Anyway, you are your own worst enemy right now. Your game is strong but your mental control (not tilting no matter what - remember you are striving to be a professional) is still growing.
Good luck and keep grinding.
Lucypher,
Thanks for the comment, but I don't feel I've accomplished nearly enough yet. Good point with the value of a steady paycheck. I had this discussion with someone else that I respect a lot. Yes 2 weeks or even 6 weeks is absolutely irrelevant in the long run. I've just been pushing myself so hard to get myself in a position to quit and have my summer back, but it hasn't come to that point yet. And here is another disconnect with me: "having my summer back". Really so it's worth quitting prematurely to vacation to NY and the beach when I want for 2-3 months? That's a tough question. That's fine if I'm making as much online, but honestly I'm not at all (I'm busting my ass to get myself in that position, but it's not there yet). And if I'm not making close to as much online it seems to be an irresponsible decision. Then again I could quit prematurely and make as much going back and forth to AC, if I want to live like that.
A nightmare scenario would be quitting and going negative a month or two. But then I would have the freedom to chase live games at least. I really have always excelled in live games the past 4 years or so. It's just that all of my time right now is going into getting online self-sustaining and the day job during the week. Sure I cram in a few 3 or 4 hour sessions here and there during the weekdays, but I wouldn't have enough time to go to Atlantic City unless I committed an entire weekend. But doing that would set me back on my online goals. I feel once I have online self-sustaining I will have both pieces in place going forward. There are a lot of people out there who are good enough to beat live well, but not good enough to beat online for anything reasonable. I want to crush both.
My original plan was to move to Vegas without getting online self-sustaining where I would be pretty much all live, I'm very confident in my ability to beat low-stakes live. It's still an option, but I have to be 100% there. I have to factor in that the move alone will cost around $6,000 including rent for the first 6 months. I'm at least fine not moving out for the next 2-3 months.
I think during the next month (once I hit Nova) I need to at least plan a trip to Atlantic City a weekend though. Someone in my family said they would stake me $1,000 to play tournaments with no attachments. That's a big enough amount to make a weekend trip up there worthwhile even with hotels and gas. I'd rather be staked a 1,000 to put towards cash games, but it would be a good change of pace.
-bag