Barely Surviving- Life and Poker (5.17.2010)
Monday, May 17, 2010 at 12:27PM I am just barely surviving right now. My weekend schedule has unfortunately come into direct conflict with my day job on Mondays, this is a reoccurring theme. I usually tend to stay up around 5:30a.m on Saturday. That’s great until Sunday night rolls around and I can’t get any sleep. The past few Sundays I have fallen asleep well past 3 a.m., and forced myself awake around 6:50a.m. It’s a combination of going to bed late the night before and also having so much on my mind to a point of being restless. This really is something I have been able to adapt or get used to, I usually just suffer through Monday, go to bed early, and my schedule returns to somewhat reasonable on Tuesday.
Sunday I was going to put in a session from 7:00p.m-10:00p.m or so. I ended up getting into somewhat of a groove bum-hunting and didn’t end the session until 2:00a.m. I actually had fun playing for once and netted around +$250 in profit, so a rare win was nice. Even when I went to bed I don’t think I fell asleep for another hour and a half.
Last night’s session represented a glimpse of hope I think. I’m hoping to build off the session and start a comeback. Other than that the last week has been absolutely miserable. Even with eventual rake-back I’m still down around $400 for the month. My luck hasn’t changed at all, the EV downward spiral continues, and so does the nightmare.
Going forward I’m going to try to break down some individual sessions and post updates on here, even if the updates are short. I think it will be good to have to “answer to someone” during this ridiculous losing streak. I don’t feel bad about the way I’m playing. If you lose 7 out of 8 times when you are all in with 70% equity + and 8 out of 10 coin flips there is really no escaping a doomed session. It seems like every session goes like that for me. Even last night with the big win I lost 3 full buy-ins all in against two-outers, so nothing I can do there.
I’m still shocked with regards to how un-realistically bad short-stacking has been going for me. Hopefully I can pull together a profitable stretch soon. I would say that the tides just have to turn eventually, but I know all too well that statement isn’t true for me. I could just keep running like shit FOR 200K MORE HANDS, so what the hell can you do? I guess stop playing or just keep getting all in while every two-outer, 4-outer, suck-out, cooler, and coin-flip under the sun destroys you.
One adjustment I’m going to make is gradually phasing in the tables during the next week as I play. Some sessions over the weekend I played well over 16 tables at once and got hammered. Yeah I’ve been eternally doom-switched, but I need to minimize the variance. I need to make sure I don’t kill myself pushing for Super-Nova status. Swinging 200 dollars on 20 tables to gain a measly 1k VPPs will obviously never be worth it.
So this next week I’m capping at 12 tables, I have no idea why I got away from that rule I set in the first place. I also plan to start with around 6 of the worst tables I can find, while looking for bad players to stack up and go after. This is one area I’ve seemed to do well in when I focus on it.
Reader Comments (6)
Well done and good luck in the future..will keep an eye on this blog, really got my motivation going.. :)
Alexandra,
Thanks for the comment happy to help. Your site was being lame and I had trouble posting a comment. You have a nice high energy blog. Well done finding the time to post so much! I Linked you up and may even stop by sometime :p
Are you able to track the changing table dynamics?
What I mean is - you find a table that's fairly soft and sit. Have you been able to track who enters and leaves the table to make sure you aren't sitting in a dozen rock gardens an hour into your session?
For your push/fold strategy I'm assuming you are utilizing PokerTracker to look at the stats of the pre-flop raiser and callers?
It feels like there needs to be something more than just running bad causing the downswing here. You have a pretty good poker mind and although your rants are really funny it seems like you don't actually tilt too often.
FK,
I make a strong effort to constantly track the table dynamics while I’m playing and I feel it’s one of my better areas. During entire sessions I am constantly replacing tables that are complete shit with tables that have some action, I am never just sitting there doing nothing. I think I do neglect this area some when I’m over 12 tables, which is bad, but it’s a sacrifice you make when you play over a certain number (It becomes impossible to 100% track table dynamic’s on 20 tables at once). Many of the “pro” short-stackers really neglect or ignore this area, but they are at least breaking even with 20+ tables in the long-run so it doesn’t really matter to them (Clearing VPPs trump the table selection at some point).
Also I use HEM, and have an active HUD up at all times that tracks the stats of my pre-flop raiser’s and callers. I am always assigning them ranges and making plays on their ranges. This can get you into trouble sometimes because it causes you to go against your instincts. For example, you see an opponent with a ridiculous 50% VPIP and 20% PFR+ and you have to play his range. Last session there was a hand were I held QQ and an Ace flopped vs an opponent (with similar stats) heads up. He called my c-bet. The turn was another ace, HE CHECKS. So now I basically have to make the final push based on his range, even know my instincts still put him on an ace. Sure enough I make the push, he calls, and holds with 3-of a kind aces. Without the HUD I can trust my read to get away from this hand on the flop or certainly the turn. But in the long run (hopefully) you are correct in trusting your HUD here, and that is an absolute must push based on his range, especially with a short-stack and already decently priced in.
I’m still shocked how bad it’s gone for me so far, it makes me want to puke that I can’t even hit a break-even stretch and I’m forced to dip into my bank account using money I busted my ass for. Despite the variance, I think one of my main problems is I’m pressuring myself to play as many tables as I can at once to hit Super-Nova. Also I know I’m still too tight. Based on some analysis I need to be re-stealing about 6-7% overall with all in shoves around the blinds. And when you hit the worst variance run of your life you instinctively want to tighten up which is always wrong. Then again weak-tight sounds better than strong broke. Then again you have to have confidence in your ability and reads.
One of these days i'll figure it out. Perhaps short-stacking may not be my answer to escape. And I'm going to learn the really hard way if this is the case. It's almost personal at this point, and I don't give up easy.
Are you doing things like shoving 89s when there's a raise and a call from two players who aren't rocks?
You can even expand to some suited on gappers there like 97s, J9s ...
Are you essentially folding all little pairs since you have no set mining value ever?
I would see no value in shoving with a hand like 89s, unless it's just one opponent who is stealing on the blinds and I'm over 80% sure they will fold to my push (which I haven't really been doing, but should be). It is pretty rare to get a raise and a call from two players who aren't rocks acting ahead of me. But if this is the case I think a range of 88+, AQ+ would be pretty automatic shove, and you could honestly really expand on that.
With little pairs (22-55) I include them in my opening range from the cut-off and on in an attempt to steal the blinds, or out-play opponents. I will also play them to set mine if I am offered enormous pot odds. An example would be something ridiculous where 4 limpers are already in the pot and I'm sitting in the small blind with 33. This would obviously be a call situation for me. Even on the button with 3 players or more limping ahead I would say you could usually call to mine even with a short-stack.