Regrouping (Down -$630 online this week)
Thursday, December 2, 2010 at 5:38AM Just finished for tonight. Thank God this fucking week is over online. Another -$300 the last 4 hours of play, -$300 in EV the usual. I feel like I'm somehow playing some of my best poker right now, but nothing can go my way. Finishing down over 12 buy-ins this week is demoralizing and disgusting. Though looking at the way the sessions went yes it does sound about right. I can think of 2 pots off the top of my head where I lost -$200 where I was in with 95%+ equity. That would have been only down 8 buy-ins right there and at maybe I could sleep in somewhat peace. Oh here's the EV during my 7 sessions this week combined:
13,700 hands, -$570 EV
It doesn't tell the entire story obviously, but it gives a general idea of the misery I suppose without going on 5 pages about bad beats, regulars catching the mortal nuts every hand they play, and fish catching the top 1% of their ranges BUT ONLY WHEN THERE IN WITH ME. LOL!
So I finished by first 100,000 k hands of full buy in DOWN thanks to this week. In 105,000 hands down -$187, -$800 in EV.
Online Going Forward
I guess it isn't a code red situation yet. I'd classify it more like a code orange in my mind. Yeah it's stressful as hell, but I still feel I'm improving and getting better each week (despite the actual net profit/loss results).
I'm not actually depending on making money online right to support myself. I knew my skill level going into the online grind and approached the situation as touchy and experimental. In the 200 hours logged I've been around break even (ok down close to 4 buy-ins). With the bonuses I've still banked a few grand. This obviously isn't good enough. I need to keep fighting to become a solid consistent winner. Being on life support by a poker websites bonuses was obviously not my goal going into this.
However, ok I only have 100k hands logged. Some of the biggest low-stakes winners in the world go through break even stretches lasting 100k hands. Really there isn't enough data to say if I'm even a winner or loser right now. Though the 100k hands suggest slight winner factoring in EV which is most likely the case.
On the bright side, by mid next week I will have enough FPPs to begin clearing another $1500 bonus. I'll probably be forced to take the bonus. My online roll is just over $5000 right now (100 buy-ins). I want to have 100 buy-ins minimum the way things are going right now. I wanted to use the FPPs to enter a few Sunday Million tournaments, but I think taking the sure cash is the right way to go during this time. Maybe if things ever stabalize I can begin putting some of the FPPs towards a few tournament buy-ins. I really did want to get into some tournaments to mix things up, have fun, and take a few shots responsibly. I think tournaments are a great change of pace and have crazy profit potential.
This Week
So back to live tomorrow. Thursday, Friday, and Sunday are most likely live days for me. I'm taking a break Saturday and having some fun for my roommates birthday (really looking forward to), but that's about it. I've really been in a miserable slump with both live and online during the past month. Still not close to being stressed out with money or anything, but yeah it sucks. I also haven't felt great during the past week. You know that feeling in the back of your throat before you're about to catch a cold? Well I've felt like that for a few days, but no full blown cold. EITHER COME OR GO, It's like what is your deal? Anyways, looking forward to fighting back strong in December.
-bag
Reader Comments (7)
Brutal run, Bags. However, I like the fact that your confidence is unshaken (as it should be). Variance happens. Just make sure you are doing all you can to minimize the variance and ride it out. How about live? Any better? I imagine it should be since the players are weaker. Anyway, good luck.
Lucypher,
My confidence is not shaken, but my expectations have just hit the floor at this point. I go into sessions thinking in the back of my mind: It's just never going to work out. I'm going to make all the right plays and it won't matter. It's a bad place to be in, but I'm not used to bad stretches lasting this long. It's really a blink of an eye, but it can be demoralizing. You just have to stay focused and it will naturally turn at some point.
As I blogged about I also hit a really bad downswing live during November. I made money, but not enough. I'm going to resume in a few hours, I took off last week for the holidays. It's been a combination of super-bad luck and some not so profitable games. I usually have to table change at least two times per session Especially on Sunday nights, they have been horirble. It should be better once I get up to 2-5, but I'm currently stuck on just over +$4,200 in profit. Can't move up until $6,000. I wanted to get there by January, but it's going to take longer if I run like I did in November.
-bag
I am not sure the swings of variance won't be even more brutal at 2-5 NLHE. Beware, but don't allow yourself to become pessimistic. This is supposed to be a career that you enjoy. Just remember, unlike working in the corporate world, you can't "phone it in" at poker and still get paid. Hopefully, things will turn around for you soon. Stay focused and good luck.
The variance will be similar at 2-5. People will flop sets and flop strong draws etc. etc. Just because their hand selection is slightly better doesn't necessarily eliminate a lot of variance.
If anything there could be a bit more variance since their are less nits at the tables.
But you seem like a solid player so I wouldn't sweat it.
I was in AC on Saturday... watched a 25/50 NL game with uncapped buy-ins. So sick. Each player had like 30k plus behind. Didn't recognize any faces but I don't pay much attention to high stakes cash anyway.
P.S. The Sunday Milly structure sucks ass but it's got a lot of value so I like your idea of using FPP points for buy-ins.
Yo,
Variance will definitely be similar at 2-5, but when you lose you lose a lot more. The hourly rate will still be higher. I still haven’t had a losing month out here, not by a long-shot.
25/50 = HOLY shit lol. Yeah it’s really wild watching games like that. I walked by one with Jamie Gold and Jungleman playing 10/25 a few weeks ago. I dream of playing in a game like that one day. If I had the roll I'd sit to the right of Gold in a second!
If things every settle down I really want to try a Sunday Million or Two. I need to keep working hard online.
Jungleman vs. Gold. I lol'd. Hahah.
Everyone always says Jamie went busto. I guess he hasn't yet but seems very determined to get there!