Low Stakes Table Selection (12/9/2010)

Before I kicked off my live sessions this weekend I wanted to write a post on table selection.  It’s a seemingly simple topic that I’ve been meaning to discuss.

Table selection is perhaps the most important driver of profitability when it comes to live low-stakes poker.  My findings relate to all stakes, but my primary experience has been 1-2 (my live game of choice the first two months as a pro).

It’s the easiest "make or break" concept to forget about on a daily basis (at least for me).  Table selection can single handedly determine whether you have a live win-rate of $10 an hour or $40 per hour.  If you’re sitting on one of the most profitable live tables in the city you can average a mind-blowing hourly rate.  The trick is finding that table.

I’m going to discuss six table environmental factors that I try to force myself to consider when choosing a table:

Factor #1) Pay-off on Premium Hand Ratio.

I always try to ask myself:

“If I receive a premium starting hand is there a high probability that I will get paid off?”

It might be 5 hours until I get dealt KK-AA.  I might NEVER get dealt one of these hands, which is irrelevant.  What is relevant is what I can expect to make if I ever do get dealt a premium hand.  If I get dealt AA UTG and raise to $10 on my 1-2 table am I going to get 9 folds a large % of the time?  If the answer is yes then I have ABSOLUTELY NO BUSINESS being on that table.

NOTHING is more disgusting.

THERE IS NO BIGGER WASTE OF MY TIME.

This is where I switch tables.  If there are no other tables I LEAVE THE CASINO.  I go next door.  Or even better, I go online and fire up 8 tables at once that are each more profitable then the current situation.

You need to make a decent amount with your premiums a large percentage of the time, especially on 1-2.  These hands should be producing big profits over the long run with little effort.

I’ve been on plenty of live 1-2 tables that are super-tight.  Sometimes it seems I’m changing tables about 2 times per every 4 hour session.  And I’m talking about weekend prime-time sessions.  Any 1-2 table will be profitable if you’re a decent player.  But often the opponent’s will simply not be bad enough.  If this is case then it’s NOT worth my time.

2)  Where are the Drinks at?

This can be an excellent table indicator before you even sit down.  Let’s say table A has 4 players with booze in front of them.  Meanwhile, table B doesn’t have an alcoholic beverage within a 5 mile radius.  For the love of God PICK TABLE A!  If you don’t care about profit at least choose table A for the entertainment value.

The casino I play at the most actually seems to have a dangerously low amount of drinkers on the low limit tables.  This is quite frustrating.  Last Saturday the tables seemed dead from 2am-4a.m.  I was so fed up I went to a casino a few blocks away.  The first thing I see is a table with 5 players who had drinks in front of them.  HOLY SHIT!  People still play poker for fun somewhere?   I’m IN!

That table turned out to be insane.  I binked a solid win in only an hour and a half of play.  In that 1.5 hours, I made what it took me 8 previous hours to make at the dead casino.  All the opponent’s were pretty much young gamblers just drinking and having a great time on vacation.  The casino doesn’t matter, you only need one good table.

3)  Opponent Stack Sizes

If the table has at least three short-stacks I usually don’t even sit down. 

Why?

It’s a waste of my time.  I want my opponent’s to have large stacks so I have the odds to play a variety of hands.  Also, when I do finally catch them I want to get paid more than $30.

There are a few regular short-stackers at low-limit in my area.  Most are laughable players, a complete waste of my time and a seat for that matter.  You will also see some casual short stackers.  These guys are just looking to bomb off their remaining loot in desperation, which is fine.  But they still usually aren’t worth my time.

Before I sit I scan for big juicy stacks.

4)  Following Bum-Hunting Regulars to Profit

There are a small breed of regulars at my casino of choice who are bum-hunt obsessive.  Specifically, about 3-4 older dudes who only understand the concepts of table selection and position.  In game they will stand up and automatically change seats at the same table like a clown to get closer to a fish.  They won’t be caught dead at a dry table.  They play JJ+, AK, and literally nothing else.  Sometimes they still get paid off (don’t ask me how).  They understand that they need a crazy table to get paid when they do pick up that one hand they like per hour.

Rather then plotting to end these people’s lives (for wasting a seat and sitting at my table), I now use them to my advantage.  If I see one at a table I now strongly consider sitting there.  Chances are the rest of the table is very profitable and they have already completed the table selection process for me!  It’s not like these guys are threats, they play 4% of the hands dealt to them and can often be mined for decent value.  I now just think of them as my army of decrepit rock-creature scouts.

5)  Is Your Image Damaged?

Sometime’s your image turns to shit through no fault of your own.  You will go through large periods of being card dead at times.  You literally can’t find a top 20% hand in two hours, we have all been there. 

When this happens you have to be very aware of how your opponent’s will respond to the fact that you haven’t been involved in a pot during the last hour.  The table might be profitable, but you may have just been dealt out of the game.  Opponent’s may pin you as “only playing AA” and avoid you no matter how bad they are.  Therefore, even if your luck turns it’s now pointless.  You’re going to be dragging $10 pots as a reward for your patience!  Refer back to factor #1 above; you now won’t get paid with premiums with any sort of ease.  I recommend just switching tables at this point.  Why bother?  You don’t need to prove anything at a 1-2 table, just switch.

You may also run into rare situations where other players will actually publically call you out on being a tight player:

“I’M AVOIDING HIM, HE HASN’T PLAYED A HAND IN TWO HOURS, ETC, ETC.”

In my experience the dude calling you out is usually a complete nit himself.  For whatever reason, it angers him to encounter another player who also has a grasp of starting hand strength.  So feel free to point out to the entire table that the only 4 hands he has shown down so far have been: KK, AA, AA, and AK. 

You can even go out of your way to raise this asshole out with 9-5 off and show the bluff to the table if you’re in the mood.

It’s very unlikely that your image will be tarnished to a point where your bottom-line rate takes a decent hit.  Players at 1-2 low stakes are usually just level-one thinking and only interested in their starting hand, not what you’re specifically doing.  However, there will be rare cases where your image can become damaged to a point where you may consider just switching tables.  It’s certainly something to keep in mind.

6)  Opponent’s wearing PokerStars Jackets and Sunglasses

First, are you that stupid?  Why in God’s name would a decent opponent want the rest of the table to think that they might be a pro?  Anyways, this situation has yet to happen to me, but I’d probably avoid a table full of jackets and sunglasses.  I guarantee it won’t be worth your time.

I do see a sun-glassed player or two on some low-stakes tables which is somewhat common.  They look like fucking idiots, but yes still somewhat common.

Final Thoughts

I’m guilty of not table selecting properly at all given times.  Hopefully the above post will help pound into my brain the fact that forgetting about table selection for even one session is completely unacceptable. 

I’m dead tired right now and had to commute back to my hometown to deal with some family issues, it’s been a very long day.  Looking to resume the live grind tonight.  I  should play 12:00- 5:00 a.m or so.  But I’m playing at least 8 hours live Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  I need to keep pushing and get up to 2-5 as soon as possible.  Only about +$1500 to clear before I hit my random live 1-2 profit goal requirements.  I'm not sure when I will clear the $1500 more, I don't always have control over this sort of thing.  I think if I run average I can get there by early January. 

It’s funny because I set the goal myself and I’m really rolled to play 2-5 right now.  So why not just bend the profit goal down and move to 2-5 immediately?  Nope bad idea.  I’m sticking to it and hitting the 1-2 profit goal set by myself before moving up.  It's important, I'm my own boss, being overly cautious is fine. There is no rush.  Besides, 1-2 another month is still better than the office.

-bag

Regrouping (Down -$630 online this week)

Just finished for tonight.  Thank God this fucking week is over online.  Another -$300 the last 4 hours of play, -$300 in EV the usual.  I feel like I'm somehow playing some of my best poker right now, but nothing can go my way.  Finishing down over 12 buy-ins this week is demoralizing and disgusting.  Though looking at the way the sessions went yes it does sound about right.  I can think of 2 pots off the top of my head where I lost -$200 where I was in with 95%+ equity.  That would have been only down 8 buy-ins right there and at maybe I could sleep in somewhat peace.  Oh here's the EV during my 7 sessions this week combined:

13,700 hands, -$570 EV

It doesn't tell the entire story obviously, but it gives a general idea of the misery I suppose without going on 5 pages about bad beats, regulars catching the mortal nuts every hand they play, and fish catching the top 1% of their ranges BUT ONLY WHEN THERE IN WITH ME.  LOL!

So I finished by first 100,000 k hands of full buy in DOWN thanks to this week.  In 105,000 hands down -$187, -$800 in EV. 

Online Going Forward

I guess it isn't a code red situation yet.  I'd classify it more like a code orange in my mind.  Yeah it's stressful as hell, but I still feel I'm improving and getting better each week (despite the actual net profit/loss results).

I'm not actually depending on making money online right to support myself.  I knew my skill level going into the online grind and approached the situation as touchy and experimental.  In the 200 hours logged I've been around break even (ok down close to 4 buy-ins).  With the bonuses I've still banked a few grand.  This obviously isn't good enough.  I need to keep fighting to become a solid consistent winner.  Being on life support by a poker websites bonuses was obviously not my goal going into this.

However, ok I only have 100k hands logged.  Some of the biggest low-stakes winners in the world go through break even stretches lasting 100k hands.  Really there isn't enough data to say if I'm even a winner or loser right now.  Though the 100k hands suggest slight winner factoring in EV which is most likely the case.

On the bright side, by mid next week I will have enough FPPs to begin clearing another $1500 bonus.  I'll probably be forced to take the bonus.  My online roll is just over $5000 right now (100 buy-ins).  I want to have 100 buy-ins minimum the way things are going right now.  I wanted to use the FPPs to enter a few Sunday Million tournaments, but I think taking the sure cash is the right way to go during this time.  Maybe if things ever stabalize I can begin putting some of the FPPs towards a few tournament buy-ins.  I really did want to get into some tournaments to mix things up, have fun, and take a few shots responsibly.  I think tournaments are a great change of pace and have crazy profit potential.

This Week

So back to live tomorrow.  Thursday, Friday, and Sunday are most likely live days for me.  I'm taking a break Saturday and having some fun for my roommates birthday (really looking forward to), but that's about it.  I've really been in a miserable slump with both live and online during the past month.  Still not close to being stressed out with money or anything, but yeah it sucks.  I also haven't felt great during the past week.  You know that feeling in the back of your throat before you're about to catch a cold?  Well I've felt like that for a few days, but no full blown cold.  EITHER COME OR GO, It's like what is your deal?  Anyways, looking forward to fighting back strong in December.

-bag

Not My Night Blah blah…. (12/1/2010)

NOT MY MONTH for that matter. 

Just finished an online session after getting raped by bull-shit the entire night.  Played 9 pointless hours today.  Already down just over 5 buy-ins this week.  Over 4 of them were lost during the last 3 hours where I finished down -$231.

During the last 3 hours I played fine, there was absolutely nothing I could do to avoid disaster.  I can’t hold a set over set and take down a pot.  The fucker drags the $100 hitting his one outer for a four of a kind on the river.  Then another massive suck-out as two pair is turned on my TPTK, minus another $100 pot.  Then a nut flush gets rivered by the standard full-house.  Then to cap it off AA goes down in flames to KJ offsuit all in preflop.

So that’s close to $400 I can’t get a piece of.  I really should get a piece of it, but I never fucking do.  So trying to move on.  There is nothing I can do about any of those 4 big hands, it’s disgusting that nothing can go right, but what can you do?

I probably should have typed a post when I was in a clear state of mind, but I’ll try to be more logical from here on out.

Approaching 100k hands of full buy-in online

By the end of the end of tomorrow night I will have logged 100,000 hands of full buy in.  I completed the 100k hands during the begging of September to now.   It looks like I’m going to finish the stretch around break even.  I was about .5 BB/100, but down close to -$300 this week should pull that number down.  It sure is fun not being able to dodge one fucking out!

Once the 100k hands are completed I really need to do a complete database review and identify some leaks.  I may even consider paying someone to help me review my database.  I’m good with analysis, but an established pro could easily look at my database and point out good areas to start focusing on.  I need a few solid reports to focus on during the next 100k hands.  This is going to take some time, but it has to be done.

My Insistence on 20-50 BB Tables

80%+ of my tables have been 20-50 BB.  I don’t rule out 40-100 BB tables, but it just seems I happen to find more profitable 20-50 tables.  The problem is these tables have a ton of variance that go along with them.  During each session you’re going to have to flip with short-stackers a bunch.  The 40-100 tables seem much more stable, but have less action.  Going forward I’m going to stick to mostly 20-50 tables, but something to keep in mind is the variance attached.

Going Forward

I’m damn tired so that’s about it right now.  Going forward I want to stay focused and log a ton of hands during December.  Overall I need to be primarily concerned with making as many correct decisions as possible.  Live will eventually turn back to running normal.  Online I need to keep grinding hands.  I also need to do whatever it takes to analyze the last 100k hands and find some leaks.