Updates Online (2/10/2010)

So I'm down about $300 since the weekend from short-stacking 200NL (about 30 hours).  I mean absolutely nothing has been working out.  Last night I somehow ran so bad I was down -$250 in 3.5 hours.  I took an hour break came back and finished up +$150 in 3 hours.  But the last hand of the session I made the worst mistake I have probably made in a month, which pissed away $60.  Knowing it was my last time around I tried to make something happen min-raising to $4 with QKs (hearts).  There were 3 players behind me that called (including a noted donk to my immediate left).  Flop comes 5s 3d Qd.  This is obviously favorable.  I lead out $10 after the first to check.  The idiot on my left instant raises to $47 (at this point I only have $43 left behind me).

Based on his range and how terrible of a player he was I thought it was likely he had a flush draw or worse.  This guy was extremely aggressive.  However, my read was completely incorrect.  I guess I need the discipline to lay this down here.  I usually wouldn't get caught with shit like QKs having to commit my entire stack on a top pair queen, king kicker.  Instead of folding I throw all my chips in ($43 more total).  He instant calls the last $6.  The mother fucker somehow is holding Ad Qs.  2 diamonds ran out and he had the flush to win.  Ok I get the idea he won.  I was so pissed off at myself for losing that fucking pot in the last round.  It would have completely changed my session and confidence level.  I just can't get involved with a holding this weak with my current bankroll.  Whatever typical bullshit.  Still based on his range it wasn't a terrible play.  But overall it was a bad play.  When I'm running this badly I can't afford to make mistakes; it's as simple as that.

Some other online thoughts:

Regulars are the luckiest son of a bitches alive.

I know they have the stats and they are very solid players.  I am still amazed at the luck I see them have.  I will be watching a player for about 2 hours who is a complete donk and be completely CARD DEAD.  Not one hand to go to war against them.  So of course a regular comes in, sits down 20 fucking minutes, instantly gets dealt AQ+, nails a perfect flop, and stacks the mother-fucker.  This story is getting old really fast.  It's like certain players get luckier in this format, it's quite ridiculous.

It seems most regulars are easier to steal from, and more likely to lay down when faced with continuation bets.

I've noticed regulars will often lay down their blinds when I min-raise them pre-flop.  I think this is because they assume I will be all in with a short-stack if they play, so they don't want to get involved with an average holding.  Also, they often respect my continuation bets more than weaker players.  I guess when you're playing 20 tables at once you don't need to really play unless you hit a hand.  I also think part of the reason this is occurring is because they all data-mine their opponents.  Therefore, they have me marked as a tighter player, so they respect my steals and continuation bets more.  This is fine with me.  I'd rather steal the piss out of their blinds, and take pots with a continuation bets vs the regulars.  The full stack should be used against noted donks I have been watching. 

I'm being too aggressive post flop at times?

With a short-stack there's a fine line with regards to when it's necessary to push all in with a slight advantage.  However, vs a really weak player I think I am being overall too aggressive post flop.  Yesterday, I lost a pot bluffing $55 on the turn vs a donk with missed AK.  I read him weak and I attacked him.  He thought a while and called with bottom pair pocket 33.  I was obviously disgusted and furious.  Terrible fucking call, but turned out great in that situation for him.  However, against a week player this type of aggression is often unjustified.  Ace high all in is not an EV play (most of the time in this situation).  They are calling with anything.  Even with an ace-rag he could have hit and called.  It's best to save the chips for when I actually do get a piece of the flop vs this type.  Mixing in a C-bet doesn't hurt, but in the previous example mentioned pushing $55 all in on a perceived slight edge is not necessary.

Bankroll.

Down to $1800 and things really aren't going well.  This leaves me 45 buy-ins at $40 each.  I'm genuinely sick of worrying about my bankroll and tearing myself up over individual sessions and outcomes.  I know I can't think like this.  I'm not going to sweat it if I need to drop in $600 more online soon.  I have a bankroll, its called uh my bank account.  Sometimes it takes money to make money.  There is no way in hell I am dropping limits and donking around short-stack on 100NL.  It's sort of do or die time for me.  I feel I'm good enough to grind out profits on these limits, it's just a matter of time.  And I wan't my time to be used in the most efficient way possible.  I can afford this, I'm not going to beat myself up over it.  And I need to start beating online.  I'm willing to invest additional money at some point.  If I'm a little short on what I have saved and I want to move to Vegas I will push to draw out 2k or so from my savings account. 

Ending this post.

Time to regroup and keep putting in the volume.  I'm ready to play 8 more hours today.  The biggest blizzard I have ever seen is raging on outside wreaking havoc on everything in it's path.  I look outside and see an occasionally bird flying around in terror.  They have no where to go.  I totally wan't to let some into my house.  But I'm pretty sure my mom would kill me; or I'd at least be living out in the snow with the rest of the terrified creatures for a while.  Even my evil corporation had to close it's doors for the day (they would be the last entity to close).  Everything is shut down.  We were hammered this past weekend with over 2 feet of snow, which ended later Saturday.  Another storm came through Tuesday and it has already dumped well over a foot on the ground.  Combined there is 3 foot + outside and it is still coming down.  This storm is of historic proportions.  This may be the biggest combined storm that will occur in Maryland in my life time.  So as the rest of the world deals with global warming Maryland continues to submerge into an ice-age.  Well hopefully work will be called off tomorrow as well.  If it's not I probably won't come in anyways.  I'm not going to risk wrecking my car over a piece of shit worthless job.  It makes no sense sorry.

Best,

-bag

Snow, Corporate, and Online Poker (2.5.2010)

A huge snow storm is apparently looming.  I stepped outside this morning and remember picking up the scent of fear in the air.  Seems the entire city has pretty much already shut down.  The general populous has been reduced to a frightful state of panic.  Yet a single snow-flake has yet to fall.  I guess people fear what they can’t control.  Add that one unpredictable element into an equation and people go shit-bat crazy.  This sort of reminds me of shark attacks.  You’re about a million times more likely to drown at the hands of your own stupidity, but that sort of thing is “preventable”.  What kind of idiot would drown right?  But an abomination of a shark with rows of razor-sharp teeth just killed someone who was swimming in the predator's natural habitat?   "FUCK THAT.  Let’s take arms and murder every shark in a THOUSAND MILE RADIUS.  MAN IS GREATER THAN SHARK."  It’s a related concept to me.  Humans tend to be more afraid of factors that are out of their control.  A shark attack is out of their control so they seek to vanquish the problem, which in actuality isn't even an issue.  And when people have no way of controling they often go a little crazy.

I decided to go out last night.  It was the first time I went out in almost two weeks.  I had some fun, but it was not all that great.  I pulled two numbers that I will definitely never call, the usual.  I’m at work running on 4 hours or whatever.  In the upcoming month or so I might go out more during the week sometimes, and less during the weekend.  I’ve decided that I’d rather screw up my work schedule then mess up the limited free time I have on the weekends.  I’m pretty sure I could do this job high on crack while tripping acid anyways.  Not that I have ever done either of those things; just saying.  Most of the time as long as I show up it’s fine.  Things might pick up some in the next few weeks with some training, but I could still go out and get hammered one weeknight and be fine.

It really is a hopeless situation with my job right now.  There’s no point in getting upset.  It is what it is.  Even if my contract isn’t renewed in a few months I could grab unemployment during a transition period.  That could actually work out quite well for a month or two as I played cards (though it’s never that easy).  My 9-5 is just a pay-check now.  This is liberating because I think “well I don’t care as much, it’s just a check”.  But deep down I have always cared.  I really gave my soul to corporate the last two years.  I started off the first year and a half really giving everything I had.  I wanted to be successful here, but ultimately there will be almost nothing to show for my efforts.  Just a small bankroll made up of some “blood money”.  It’s still hard for me to go to work and break off to a point where I don’t care in anyway; I really wish I could.  But shit still bothers me.

I will go on insisting that they can do whatever they want to try to further fuck me over; go for it.  Doesn’t and shouldn’t matter to me anymore.  My future is not here, I KNOW THIS.  I think things are even worse with my boss now since I had a discussion a few months ago moving out of state unless there were some reasonable opportunities that would be developing damn soon.  So basically instead of trying to get me more involved and retaining me she has just taken the strategy of cutting me off more.  The past month the best work has been assigned to someone who has showed up 2 hours late pretty much every day the past half a year.  I was in line to receive some training that would boast my resume, but that was awarded to someone else first because my direct boss either has something personal against me or thinks I’m going to quit soon so it doesn’t matter.  I will still get the training in a few weeks, but I had to go out of my way and fight for it myself (just to have it on my resume).  I know my best bet is to march on like a soldier and get to a point where nothing bothers me.  In a way it serves me right; I screwed my corporate situation up more by being honest.   I know it’s beyond stupid to be honest around here.  I just gave the boss time to stab me in the back preemptively.  It's the same reason why I knew I should never tell my boss if I was interviewing.  I actually wrote about this back in September months ago in a sign it's time to leave corporate:

"You have realized you should never tell your current boss when interviewing internally.

It is wise to remove this logic from your thought process:

“I’m going to tell my boss I am accepting an internal interview. I think it's important I remain honest and respectful. Also, I won’t have any guilt. Besides, maybe she will be more inclined to offer me a promotion since other parties are obviously expressing strong interest, which further proves my value.”

In reality:

It is beyond idiotic to tell a current boss you’re accepting an internal interview. This only gives them time to network and stab your back; ruining your chances of ever progressing. Furthermore, don’t fool yourself into thinking you should be respectful and honest; remember that NOBODY else around you is. Getting others in corporate to appreciate those values would be like sharing empathy with an ant. Do you think the ant has the capacity to appreciate your empathy? Also, nobody is going to feel pressured to give you a promotion in response to another internal manager showing interest. It is much easier to contact the other manger first and simply work out a “block deal" before your interview even begins."

And I found where I explained the block deal:

"Additionally, your current manager can put a “block” on you as a last resort. This means your current boss will contact the manager hiring for the new position (manager A). They will agree to deny you the position, so your current manager can continue to suck you for everything you’re worth. In return your current manager will return the favor to the manager A at a later time."

Though I don’t completely regret the decision to reveal that I was thinking about moving out of state.  I wanted to make sure it wouldn’t be possible to work remotely for a few months.  It could have been a good option.

I want to play a lot of online poker this weekend.  I should be able to play unless a blizzard knocks out my power.  I need to regroup and stick to my strategy.  I also want to make a huge commitment to online poker during the upcoming months.  I should build my online roll to a point where I can at least make a decent rate if I want to play online hourly to supplement income.  It’s also a good idea to stay in strong playing shape.  It would be nice to be in Vegas playing live, but I should also have something online I can work off of.  It’s important to have both worlds eventually; a balance.  I need to step up my online volume and discipline.  When I’m online I also don’t go out and spend money.  Even if I lose an online session it’s taking off from a bankroll I built up over a long time.  However, if I want to get more serious online I may have to put more money in.  Sure you can grind a bankroll up from nothing.  But it’s always an issue of time to me.  I have to maximize the value of my time.  Sure you can spend hundreds of hours and turn $50 into a thousand.  Shame not everyone has 100’s of hours.  This is probably a reason why I am not as winning as I should be online.  Maybe subconsciously rush and try to make things happen sometimes. 

Anyways I’m probably going to leave work once it starts snowing.  Most people didn’t even come in today.  The thought of getting stuck in this shitty city is dreadful.  My next post will probably be on a horseshit unlucky online session.  Or the apocalypse blizzard that ruined humanity; something fun you know?

Cheers,

-bag

Tides Turn Fast (What A Nightmare)

Last night I had an absolute nightmare session.  I began 4 tabling short stack and took around 4 beats in a 20 minute span (for my entire stack each time).  I ended up down -$400.  Absolutely devastating.  I'm angry with myself because my discipline was pathetic.  I targeted a bad player and re-bought $80 to go after him.  I lost that entire stack as he rivered a 2 outer against my overpair.  At this point I buy in around $180 to go after him.

The clue-less clown ends up rivering me two more times during the session to absolutely fuck my session.  So much for everything I built up over the weekend.  I guess overall I'm still up $400 in this format, but wow.  It's scary how bad my discipline really was last night.  The gambler came out in me; the logic being; "my goal is to get the most money in with the best situation".  I knew this guy represented an extremely good situation that I could exploit (in theory, about 90% of the time).  But I got sucked out three times so that's poker.  I don't ever remember being so angry and disgusted with poker.

I'm not going to run on and post 8 suck-out hands, I will spare you that.  And I knew I was risking it by buying in more than a short-stack to go after a certain situation.  It's pointless going "I would have, should have, or could have".  Going forward it's either stick to a strictly low-stack strategy, or deposit a few thousand online so I can go after idiots like this and be able to take getting rivered 3 times in the span of an hour for enormous pots.  Oh right that's why I'm planning to move to Vegas so I have everything LIVE.  Burn in hell Poker Stars.  Or I could keep buying in to much money and go broke with my online bankroll; that's fun as well.

Obviously not playing tonight.  Decided I deserve the torture of working out even know I only got 4 hours of sleep.  Serves me right.  Hope everyone else is having a better week.

-bag

2/1/2010 (Solid Weekend)

Something just happened at my job that pissed me off which freed up some time to put together the framework of this post.  What better time to WRITE AN ENTRY.  Since I have to stick to my rule (not doing any real work for an hour when something of corporate origin angers me) I might as well give some weekend updates.

I played 19 more hours total this weekend.  I cleared the bonus in time and achieved gold-star.  Overall I was also up +$180 on the tables (in addition to the bonus).  So I'll just include the cleared bonus in my overall profit to make myself feel good and say up +$480 for the 20 hours.

Some thoughts below:

Thinking about depositing on Full Tilt.

I've done some research online with regards to the loosest sites for cash games.  Full Tilt seems to have much better ring games.  I'm seriously considering a deposit on Full Tilt in the next month or so.  It feels so much better when you're grinding away with a bonus on your side.  The problem is I would have to play very low stacks to clear the bonus.  Maybe if I deposited $600 I could short-stack 50NL or something.  Also I've said it before Stars is a fucking nitfest.  I have no idea how to players grind out 200NL playing 14 tables at once and make any kind of worth-while profit on that site.  I guess it's easier when you have the stack to steal from the nit-bags, and jack the living hell out of the few fundamentally flawed.

Sticking to Short-stacking 200 NL.

I am really liking the format so far and  I'm happy with my strategy.  With the bonus included I'm up over $800 so far.  And there is no way I would have achieved that bonus in time if it wasn't for 200NL.  This is a crazy high swing in a rather short time.  Though my two biggest sessions involved doubling up at least once and using the stack to target a bad player.

I think some of my strengths at short-stacking 200NL include table selection, quickly profiling weak opponents, and a solid TAG strategy.  I think a weakness is not having extensive knowledge on what the top short-stack NL grinders are specifically doing in every respect (though I have a general idea).  I think some additional research could take care of this.  I also think a weakness is being to tight at times.  But this is a fine line.  My bankroll is already small (now $2500) for these limits, and being tight cuts back on the bankroll fluctuations.

Example of Being Tight (Weakness).

If I'm confident I have someone at the time I need to get all in with the $40 obviously.

However, If I double up and that table isn't profitable enough I need to GET THE HELL OUT.  This is why short-stacking regulars hit and run.  They don't shift styles.  They don't want to out-skill opponents playing real poker; they are PUSH-BOTS.  I am striving to be a hybrid between the push-bot and the "real poker player".

If I double up and a table isn't profitable enough I need to get the hell out.  There is no reason to risk an $80 stack vs a regular that has played over 2 million hands.  At this point my doubled up short-stack becomes a disadvantage.  Last night I lost a pot that put me down for a 2 hour session.  I doubled up earlier and my stack was around $95.  I raised to $6 pre flop with JJ and a solid regulare behind me elected to call.  We are now head-ups up and the flop comes all low cards.  I lead out betting $8 to a $15 pot and he CALLS.  TURN comes queen.  I lead out $14 more he CALLS.  River comes another blank.

Now what?

CHECK you dumb-ass!  He's already shown his strength the last two rounds.  Pray he checks down.  If he makes an average sized bet in comparison to the pot you can CALL.  If the bet is to high for your liking throw the bitch away.

Instead I bet $14 (Thinking maybe he hasn't showed strength enough and I've been in control on the flop and turn).

He re-raises all in and I FOLD.  It would have been 40-something more dollars to call.

With $40 I would have been all in with this hand and he shows down no matter what.  I could even get close to all in on the flop with over-pair JJ (or even if the flop has something like a queen I can still get all in and be profitable in the long run since he's going to miss more times than not). 

This is the problem with doubling up and sticking around with a bigger stack.  It's so tempting because I like to try to work my way up from nothing and play "real poker" with terrible players.  If I didn't play this way I wouldn't have won some of the biggest pots during the last week.  One of my pots was a full $140 doubled up to $280 even though I only started the table with $40.  But if the terrible players aren't there it's time to get the hell out.  If I double up and stick around I need to make damn sure I focus that stack on a very weak player and get in the best situation.  Even if I double up, go super tight, and wait for a hand I can still be playing unprofitably against skilled regulars because situations like the JJ hand discussed above will often arise.

Not sure if I'm going to play tonight.  I would like to crush a nap and play a few hours.  But if a friend stops over I might have to cancel out the session tonight.  It's going to be a damn long week ahead like usual.....

Cheers,

-bag

1/30/2010 (Rambling and Some Online Updates)

I played poker until 6:30 a.m last night online.  I woke up around 2:30 p.m to find a few inches of snow outside.  It’s still coming down somewhat steady.  I checked the weather a day ago and this was not called for.  Interesting because I checked the map a few minutes ago and the storm seems to have blanketed all of Maryland.  This isn’t a random cloud that happened to pass through.  Sometimes I think I could predict the weather almost as accurately as forecasters by using three simple steps:

Step 1:  Setting up a dartboard.

Step 2:  Sectioning off the board into reasonable forecasts for each lane.

Step 3:  Launching a dart from 50 feet away to make a weather prediction for the upcoming day.

Curios by nature I did a google image search for "weather forecast dartboard" and actually found something.  Looks like the one below was used for the Christmas day forecast somewhere.  I guess I'm not the first to come up with this brilliant idea of using a dartboard to predict weather:

I can’t think of another profession where you can be so horribly incorrect with such stunning frequency, yet get away with it.  Maybe a stock market broker?

About a week ago I realized I needed to clear a $300 bonus on PokerStars by 2/5/2010.  I’ve been vigorously working to clear it in time during past week.  I’ve played 20 hours in the past 4 days, which is a decent volume considering I had a 9-5 job to deal with as well.

I decided to short stack 200NL to clear the bonus.  It was pretty much my only shot at accumulating 2,500 FPP so quickly.  The strategy has been working out well so far.  Right now I’m up +$300 in the 20 hours played.  Last night was by far my most frustrating session, but I still ended up break even in 6.5 hours.  I took 3 horrendous beats in a very short time frame which sent me tilting like a psycho.  Man the beats online are tough.  I never have a problem controlling myself live.  But when a series of crazy suck outs all happen nearly simultaneously on different tables online it’s hard not to go ape-shit nuts.  I still have to work on my online poker discipline.

As for short stacking 200NL I have generally been buying into two tables at $40 each to start.  Though last night I was four tabling by the end.  Sometimes when I double up once or twice I will leave the money on and go after bad players with my bigger stack.  This is risky business, but I’ve had some decent success hunting certain players.  I’ve been extremely focused on table selection and who exactly I am trying to go after on different tables.  I’m pleased with the strategy so far.  I just think it’s important to tread extremely carefully when I double or triple up my original $40 and decide to leave the full $120 or whatever on the table.  All it takes is one bad beat here to have a massive impact on my bankroll.

My roll is $2,049 right now, but I’m only 450FPP away from clearing a $300 bonus.  I want to stick with short stacking 200NL for a while (even after I clear it).  It’s going well and I’ve been happy with my play.  Even if I play break even, the other players will make it worth my while if I select the correct table.  Around 5a.m-6a.m last night some extremely crazy games broke out which boasted my FPP total nicely. 

I still think PokerStars is WAY TO FRIGGIN TIGHT.  It’s a constant chore to find cash games that are worth your time.  After I clear the bonus I’m thinking about making a deposit on Full Tilt Poker and checking out what they have to offer.  Seems you can get a free 3 month subscription to CardRunners and Hold Em Manager for free if you simply deposit and clear a $100 in bonus on Full Tilt.

I haven’t gone out since I got back from Atlantic City and I’m trying to keep focus.  I need to keep focusing on poker, and I need to really cut back going out and wasting money (as dreadful as that may sound).  I’ll probably end up playing pretty much all of tonight as well (if things are going well).    I’m a tennis fan and the Australian Open final starts live at 3:30 a.m Sunday morning (Eastern Time).  I’m going to try to stay up and play poker through the start and end of that match.  That would be pretty ballin’.

Off to the tables for me.

Focus focus focus……