Updates and Re-Steal Chat (7.5.2010)

I played about 7 hours last night and ended up +$40.  Then I played a final hour from 3:45a.m – 4:45 a.m and got slammed for -$190.  I have never seen such a disgusting hour in my life.  Every suck-out, cooler, and coin-flip hit on me in the span of 40 minutes across 12 + tables and I dropped over 9 fucking buy-ins.  I sort of wish I never even logged on for the final hour.  There wasn't much I could do, just accept my EV ass-kicking an move on.

So things have yet to go well.  I’ve been doing a lot of research with regards to the math behind certain re-steal situations.  During my sessions I’ve been logging certain situations, and later I’ve been figuring out the math to see if it would have indeed been profitable to push.  Some of the findings have been surprising.  I think this is the key to plugging my most ugly leak which is not 3-betting light enough pre-flop.  Eventually I’ll have an excel book with positive ranges to push based on position, villain's opening range, and villains estimated calling range.  Effective stack size and initial raise size will also be factored into the equation.  I used some a forum and Pokerstove to help me out here.

For example, I already have the range of 28.8% (A common stealing range) mapped out.  The hardest part is estimated the villain’s calling range when you're planning a re-steal, which really comes down to experience based on the opponent.  For example let’s say the opponent steals 29.8%, and we estimate his calling range to be 19.8%.  If our effective stack size is 20BB, and he opens 3x from the BTN and we are in the BB what is our effective push range?  As in what hands would it be +EV in push all in.  There is a very specific answer and it happens to be something like:

55+, A8s+, A9o+, KJo+

This is a VERY WIDE range of hands.  And this ties in to a very serious leak that I have been playing with.  I would take the range above and play around with Pokerstove to figure out hands that will be EV to push no matter what the villains calling range is.  Even if the mother fucker calls 25% and steals 29.8% the positive range to push is still at minimum 55+, A8s+, ATo+.  I would personally adjust this range to favor hands like QK over 55 and 66 for example.  QKs has slightly more heads up equity than even 88.  Even if I expanded this range to 77+, ATs+, and QKo this would be a huge increase from what I was 3-betting in the past.  In the past with an opponent stealing around 28.8% I would really only 3-bet with hands like AQ+ and 99+ unless I had a read on an opponent that he was going after me and would fold to a 3-bet very light.  Huge huge leak, what a gaping hole in my logic.

Resteal analysis is something I’ve really been focusing on when I’m not playing.  Positive ranges to re-steal based on EV can be calculated for an endless amount of situations.  I plan to have EV push ranges for pretty much every situation I run into when everything is said and done.  My full buy in bum-hunts have been going well, but the short-stacking still miserable.  I actually think full buy in poker is easier at my stakes.  The regulars just sit there and play 8/7/3 and go after weak players.  If you play short-stack like that you get destroyed.  I've still been having nice success buying up to full and going after weak players.  Even when I get tangled with regulars their ranges are so clearly defined that they never represent a serious threat.  Really fulll buy in poker is more my style.

Anyways about to go out and play tennis.  Planning to put in 5 hours of poker later.  I’ve been having serious thoughts about pushing back my 2-week notice date at the day job.  I will discuss this in much greater detail later.  I just don’t feel like I’m ready yet.  My win rate online just isn’t there.  Oh I’m currently 92% to Supernova.

-bag