Tuesday Rape -$384 Losing My Mind (6.8.2010)
Wednesday, June 9, 2010 at 12:58AM Down -$384 In 5 hours. I just lost my mind and sent Pokerstars an email. Putting in 3 more hours tonight and then going to bed. I hate everything. Maybe there is a 1% chance they will read the email and remove the doomswitch from my account who knows. Fucking bullshit.
To: Pokerstars Customer Support
SUBJECT LINE: Losing My Mind. How do You Ensure Your Shuffle is Random (I’m blowing off some steam, but seriously?)
"Hello,
I’d like to start by saying I am passionate about playing poker. I take it very seriously. I won’t stop until I play poker full time, and it is self-sustaining. I want to make a career out of it. If it does not work out on your site, I will move to another site. If it does not work out on another site, I will move to Las Vegas to pursue it professionally. I’ve recently been making a push on your site for Supernova status the last few months.
Let me say it has been an absolute nightmare. I have run under $5,000 in expected value during this time frame. I know many regulars who have not ran under $5,000 EV in millions of hands played. Keep in mind I normally short stack 12-16 100NL tables at once ($20 buy in each). So this is a ridiculous amount of money to swing. I just honestly don’t even understand how it’s possible anymore. I’ve ran under $5,000 in expected value in 250,000 hands, which is quite unheard of.
I feel sick to my stomach as I’m typing this. I wish you could look at my hand log and explain to me how it is even possible. I write this after my last 3 hour session, which I ran under EV again for the 9th time in 11 sessions (even by Hold Em Manager standards). Looking at my last session:
KK < AA all in pre. -$43
AK < AA all in pre. -$40
QQ < AA all in pre. -$40
AK < AA all in pre. -$60
QQ < AA all in pre. -$33
For starters, how do you run into AA all in preflop 5 times in 3 hours with AK+? But whenever I’m holding AA I get absolutely destroyed. It’s like the deal is trying to mess with me. In the same session, here is what happens when I get dealt AA:
AA < K8s. He flops the flush. I flop top over-pair and the nut flush draw. He somehow holds. -$50
AA < 55. -$30. FLOP five.
AA < QQ. -$40 Flop queen.
So where is the balance again?
In the same session we have a player playing 90% of his hands and committing all in with basically any two cards. He smashes me for over a $100 of course. QQ < K8 off-suit all in preflop ($90 pot gone). And he instantly FLOPS the king, just wow. Then AQ < 75s as he turns a miracle nut straight against top pair top kicker (another $96 gone).
Please explain to me how you ensure your shuffle is random? Because I am absolutely losing my mind, it doesn’t even make sense anymore.
We also have in THE SAME SESSION:
TT < KTs all in pre-flop. I make a great play again and get punished. He cold calls and somehow flops the nut flush. -$40.
I have to say it’s really getting old. I don’t know what I’ve done as a customer to deserve this week after week after week after week after week after week. But I wanted you to know that if I decide to completely cash out and leave when I hit Supernova, this is why. There is only so much one person can take.
I know it’s terrible luck and I can’t even believe I’m typing this email. But let me say this is not just one session. This is the way it has been going for me the last 3 months. There is never a session where I actually run surprisingly well, or the polar opposite of what I talked about above. Absolutely never.
I want to believe with all my heart that your deal is completely random. I love your software, customer support, and service. I want to believe I’m just the most unlucky person on the face of the planet. Hopefully future generations can use my hand history on your site to do a case study to explain variance. So I’m off to deposit another doomed $600.
Hopefully I can look back at this email and laugh one day, but I don't see that happening. Hopefully you get a good laugh though.
Cheers!
Baglife"
6/9/2010 EDIT RESPONSE FROM POKERSTARS:
(This is why I stay with Pokerstars. They act like they actually do care. I'm just blown away by such an amazing response to my waste of an emaill.)
"Thank you for your email.
First, I am sorry to hear that you have had a hard time at PokerStars. I can
empathize with you in regards to the highs and lows that poker sometimes
dishes out. Whether playing online, at a friend's house, or in a casino, the
nature of the game dictates that sometimes we both will have downswings and
be on the end of some bad beats.
Please also keep in mind that Poker EV graphs are not conclusive and should
not be the only tool to look at when determining how badly you may be
running or how well you have been playing. This topic is discussed
extensively on poker forums such as 2+2. It is important to remember that
streaks of good luck and bad luck do occur and can often last for a long
period of time. What we can say is that over an infinite number of hands,
both your actual winnings and expected winnings should be equal at
point-infinity.
Furthermore, it is natural for poker players to seek reasons for why
downswings occur, as you have, however the simple fact is downswings are
inevitable in a random shuffle. Downswings usually occur due to variance in
results that do not match expected outcomes. They cannot be logically
connected to anything else. Unfortunately when facing extended losses, many
players become emotional, and find logic hard to grasp.
For example, it is important to understand, each poker hand is an
independent event. The cards that come on one hand have no effect on the
cards that are dealt in the next hand. This means there is no pattern in
results. It makes no sense to aggregate independent events because there is
no connection between them. Each hand is demonstrably independent from every
other.
And yes, we can assure you that our shuffle IS completely random, which
favours no player over any other. The methods we use ensure complete
randomization of the cards, and complete unpredictability of the cards to
come. You can see the description of these methods at:
http://www.pokerstars.com/poker/room/features/security/
In addition, we analyse hands dealt daily to see if there is any
statistically significant variance from expectation.
We even gave the software source code to the largest consulting firm
specializing in software security and quality, Cigital, who reviewed
PokerStars' shuffle and found it to be fair and random. You may read about
this analysis at:
http://www.pokerstars.com/poker/rng/
If you are still concerned about PokerStars' games, I can only advise you to
perform your own analysis. You have played 815,246 hands on our site and you
can request your full hand history from us and input it into some
independent poker analysis software, such as PokerTracker, PokerOffice, or
Hold'em Manager.
Your own hand histories will clearly show our shuffle IS random.
I hope this has alleviated your concerns. I wish you the best of luck in
your endeavours to achieve Supernova and your future poker career.
Best Regards,
Alexander L
PokerStars Support Team"
Reader Comments (7)
This really is astoundigly dumb. Some people are never going to make money playing poker. Short stacking NL$100 is pretty retarded. Just give up, quickly.
You do get raped by the rake if that's your point ...
Personally I never short stacked below 2/4 NL but I also admit I haven't (and won't) run numbers to do a big rant on it.
I have to believe that the amount of shitty players at 100nl make it so that you can still turn a modest profit over the course of a year.
Simon,
Thanks for the comment that was somehow even more unproductive than my post. Instead of deleting your bullshit I will just logically respond. Plenty of regulars have made solid money short-stacking 100 NL. Some of them stuck with short-stacking, while others transitioned to full buy in.
It is no more "retarded" than sitting there with a full stack and losing $150 pots with KK < A6 all in preflop against a 80/50 money spewing clown. Or top two pair to a set. Both of which happened last night (with full stacks). But yes running -$5,000 EV in a few months is pretty retarded. And oh I do pick my spots nightly with a full stack. Not that I give a shit about justifying my style because you have moral issues against short-stacking for whatever reason. It's not my problem that short-stackers bullied you in grade school. Some people will never make money playing poker, but I'm not one of them.
FK,
There really wasn't much of a point here, it was pretty stupid. I was just blowing off some steam. And yes there is potential to make modest profit of the course of a year. People have done it before and will continue to do so.
-bag
My reply was to Simon - my bad for not clarifying.
I think you could also make a decent profit doing Rush Poker short-stacking and getting 33% rakeback. 4 tables of that is probably close to 12 regular tables.
But I don't think they have the equivalent of a Supernova status with perks, right?
FK,
That is a really nice rake-back on paper, I'm not sure on Tilt's reward system though. Once you get to Supernova you are earning more because of the bonuses you can purchase. There are also milestone bonuses which are pretty big. $1,000 at 100k VPPS, and over $3,000 at 200k VPP. Also I've sort of trapped myself into pushing the rest of the way towards Supernova. Once I hit it I'm going to clear a lot of money back that will help minimize this downswing. Hopefully the money cleared back will give me a bankroll going forward where I never have to deposit another dollar into the site. Basically, Tilt has a better system for the lower volume player, while Pokerstars has a better rewards for the higher volume player (which I'm striving to be).
Even if I decide on a new direction, hitting Nova first is necessary now. It sucks because I'm playing without rake-back and saving FPPs right now because i don't want to spend FPPs at Platinum Star status, it would just giving up hard earned cash. Yeah $400 swings like the one mentioned above wouldn't be as bad if I knew I was about to clear a $1500 bonus anyway! So yeah it's stressful having to keep dumping money in from my checking account during this phase. I've never done anything like this.
Also, I really don't think the Rush format would be good for me. One of my better skills is table selection. I also like the ability to stack up full against when playing certain opponent's/tables.
I feel like if you can find a way to survive on Pokerstars, you can find a way to survive anywhere. It's certainly the best of the best competition. That being said, there is still tons of profit to be made.
Their response is great.
Compare this to Full Tilt accounts getting hacked for tens of thousands of dollars and FTP Support never replies ...
Agree just awesome. Their customer service really is top notch. Many businesses out there could take notes.
Going to grab dinner and regroup. Will probably post another update on the combined sessions tonight. Maybe a mid week review.