Nice Weekend and Updates (10/20/2010)

Sometimes when I have a lot on my mind I don’t post as much.  This is interesting because you would think this would cause me to post more, but not always the case.  It’s sort of like a traffic jam in my head.  There is so much going on at once that I don’t even know which part to write about.

So I’ll just start with this weekend: 

+$945 in 19 hours.

I can’t complain about the hourly rate here.  The sick thing is it could have been a lot more.  +$800 of my profit came in the span of 5 hours.  That’s how a lot of my weekend sessions have been going.  I’ll be playing well, but end up getting clubbed by a huge suck-out every 5 hours or so, which sets me back, but I’m usually still up something.  As I scrape by and do everything I can to put myself in the best positions, a huge session eventually materializes and I finally go on a run.   I’ll start by discussing the best and worst hand from a profit and loss standpoint:

Best Hand.

Time:  Around 3:00 a.m Friday (well technically Saturday morning).

Location:  Live AC

I’m dealt 66 on the button.  The UTG player opens $8.  He is a nit weak-tight regular perhaps in his early 50s.  I’ve played with him before, but have not been involved with a decent pot with him tonight.  He is actually one of the better players at the table even know he is horrible (the table is just that bad).  I’m immediately putting him on JJ+ or AK here.  Three people call including myself.  Nit and myself are both big-stacks right now so it’s a perfect set-mine opportunity for me.  Not that I would ever hit a set, but I do realize the opportunity is quite attractive.  Not like 25 year old Russian who works up stairs attractive, but attractive nonetheless.  The pot size is about $35 at the conclusion of the pre-flop action.

Flop:

2d 3s 6d

The villain is first to act makes a standard weak-tight raise to $10 representing a “huge hand”.  I re-raise about $40 with top set making it $50 total.

The guy then RE-RAISES me $50 more to $100 total.

HOLY SHIT.  This has just turned into a massive pot.  As automatic is it might seem to a reader here, this is not an automatic shove based on the limits and my stack size.  I thought about this at least a few minutes.  I wasn’t trying to Hollywood him (I have better things to do), I wanted to put him on a hand as accurately as possible.  I’m scared of 45 here, but based on the villain history there is absolutely no way in hell that he has a 45.  He doesn’t have the ability to raise 45 here UTG pre-flop it’s not in his range.  Then that thought creeps into my head like a rat scurrying across the back of a dark alley:  WHAT IF HE HAS 45?  What if it’s some sort of range balancing play.  However, that thought is quick and ridiculous so I soon dispel it.  Did I bring up the concepts of range and balancing in the same sentence with this guy?  As in maybe:

A)  He consiously realized that the combinations of hands you choose to play can be summarized as a range.

B)  He somehow out of nowhere grasped the understanding that his range is very tight and he should work to expand this range.

C)  He also miraculously figured out in the same moment that expanding pre-flop opens with the likes of low suited-connectors on occasion would not only be wise, but ideal for trickery.

D)  That the letters A-C mentioned by baglife above are important.  Therefore, he jumped into action, and opened pre-flop with 45 THIS HAND, after showing no past evidence of even thinking about making such a play. 

HOLD ON HOLD THE HELL ON.  Let’s be serious here.  Giving him credit for being capable of A-D above?  I might as well try to teach calculus to an infant while im at it, sure it could happen right?  While I’m at it, I should also go ahead and just date the Russian girl with a kid who works upstairs, that could work out also right?  And since we are on the subject, I’ll just assume I can also logically explain to my parents that success in poker has a direct correlation to skill, rather than luck.

There just isn’t anyway he has 45.  This guy literally only plays TT+, AJ+.  This is not in his range.  No way in hell he goes from open raising TT+ AK UTG to mixing in “range balancing” play with a hand like 45s.  So what does he have?  I don’t even think 22 or 33 is possible because he raised UTG pre-flop which again means huge starting hand strength for this guy.  Worst case scenario for me I think maybe he could have AdKd.  Even then I would be shocked because I think he would call this hand based on his playing ability.  However, his re-raise could very well mean “un-sure” here.  Yeah it’s a big raise for him, but why not push me all in with AKs and try to fold me out?  The answer: because he doesn’t have a lower set, he doesn’t have a draw of any kind, and he damn sure doesn’t have a straight.

While I was analyzing the situation I said something that in retrospect I probably shouldn’t have:

“I don’t think you have 45, there is no way”

After thinking a few minutes I pushed my entire $250 remaining stack all in.  The action was now on him, he needed to call $200 to play on.  The pot already about $435.  If he calls the pot will become $635+.

He begins his very long thought process.  He is talking a lot out loud.  At one point in his illogical rambling he says something that is rather accurate.  He says: “You’re telling me you have the set.  You said you don’t think I have 4-5”.

I don’t say a word, but I think to myself:  “GOOD JOB yes it’s a fucking set.  What the fuck else could I possibly be pushing my entire stack here with after calling you pre-flop from the button?  Good you figured it out now fold.  I am THRILLED to take a fold here.  There is no way I want you catching your ridiculous 2-out hand on me.  FOLD GO AHEAD.  I’m more than happy with a fold”.

Eventually he literally stands up and screams:  “I CALL”

I’m thinking to myself:  “Oh holy fucking shit”

I smoothly turn over 66, as he slams down his hilarious doomed POCKET ACES with great force.  Expected, but I’m still nervous.  There is a shit-load of money in this pot.  I don’t want him to catch a two-outer on me.  I’ve seen it happen before.  If one person in the universe is going to lose this situation it’s going to be me.

Turn TREY (3h).  Great card, now I only have to dodge the wretched river.  Even if he would have had a flush draw he would have been drawing dead by now I think to myself.  RIVER:

BLANK

I don’t even remember what the actual river card was, I just know it wasn’t an ace.  And that was that.  +$650 pot.  I’m not sure on the exact pot size because I’m remembering all of this from a week ago, but it was a huge pot.  It could have been over $750.  I can’t for the life of me understand why he made that final call.  How in the world did he convince himself that he could have been ahead here?  I just don’t get it.  Then again when you play 5% of your hands I guess you have to make a move sometime, even if you are completely screwed.

Anyways that was the good hand.  And that story took a while to write so I don’t feel like posting the bad hand.  Basically the bad hand was a huge pot with AK, where I held top pair ace, king kicker after intense action pre.  He turned the five to complete his miracle set.  This was a -$350 pot.  However, I regrouped and came back strong Saturday to recover all of my losses and even a profit.  I also learned two valuable lessons from that particular hand:

1)  Don’t ever get greedy.  My slightly less than half the pot size bet on the flop was too low, just under half the pot.  Maybe if I bet 3/4s to pot-size on the flop he would have folded.  Then again maybe he would not have (He did already call $40 pre-flop with 55 and my decent flop bet).  The point remains:  take down the decent pot and don’t get greedy.  I was disappointed with the way I played this hand.  Really looking back it was the only thing I’ve done in the last two months live where I can say “I made a mistake there”.  Seems like a small mistake, but to me it was huge, that bet should have been a minimum 3/4s of the pot.  Take it the fuck down.  My intentions were somewhat justified, I put him on shit, so I made a bet that would string him along and get him completely pot commited.  Still somewhat greedy.

2)  I CAN NEVER EVER EVER EVER SIT THERE WITH A SHORT-STACK, NOT EVEN FOR 6 HANDS.  After I lost the pot with AK I had $50 left on the table.  I was really quite rattled and angry, especially since the moron stood up and screamed when he turned over his hand revealing he hit one of his two stupid outs.  Therefore, I decided to leave the $50 on the table without stacking up to $150 and see 6 hands for free until the blinds hit me.  Then I was breaking for dinner since it was the 5 hour mark anyways.  HUGE MISTAKE.  One of the hands I was dealt 66, I had to fold pre-flop because I had no odds to mine.  I would have flopped a set.  Then another hand I had to fold out 99.  I WOULD HAVE FLOPPED A TOP SET WITH THE 99, and there was big action.  WHAT JUST HAPPENED?  I would have made everything back that I just lost plus profit in literally 7 hands.  There is no reason for me to ever be short-stacked on these tables.  I don’t ever go on tilt and play my hands incorrectly, that’s not me.  I just get angry for a hand or two, but it doesn’t affect my ability to play.

Well at least I learned something from the big lost pot. 

Progress.

I’ve now cleared over $3,300 playing 1-2 during the last 80 hours ($41.25 per hour).  It’s a small sample size, but a good start.  Really I think it could have gone even better, I guess it always could.  I’m looking forward to logging around 300 hours of live play during the next few months and seeing what the results look like.  I’m a lurker in the online poker community and I understand that most online pros would bet their bankrolls that my type of results are not obtainable.  That may be, but I think $30 per hour on 1-2 is attainable for me personally even starting out.  Sure if you just walked into a casino and sat on any table it would not be. 

I’d rather not get into a win-rate debate, it's usually completely pointless to assign generic win-rates to specific limits, there are just so many factors that people don't think about.  I’ll just keep destroying the games I play and keep doing my thing.  I’ll let my results speak the truth.  I don’t put results up anywhere (with the exception of this blog).  I’d rather no one knows who I am or that I’m even playing poker full time, but that’s just me.  I like to be extremely low-key about what I’m doing.  So it’s not like I have anything to prove to anyone but myself.

I will say table selection has been a huge part of my win-rate during the last 80 hours of live play.  I know exactly when a table is not worth it I often leave in 30 minutes or an hour (or even less).  Here are the three skills (in no particular order of importance) that I think will continue to be the most important as I progress from 1-2 to 2-5:

1)  Table Selection

2)  Fundamentals

3)  Discipline

That’s about all I have for now.  This weekend my volume might be limited because I have to move a ton of stuff to the new place, set up a network, etc, etc, blah, blah, lame.  Oh three days of corporate left including today.  Actually almost 2.5 days now.  I will miss nothing about this place.  Even if I went broke playing poker and end up having live in a box outside I would still miss NOTHING about this place.  I’m joking about the going broke part of course.  My risk of ruin is fractional and I have back-up plans.

-bag

Comments

[Lucypher]

Bags, I am going to apologize in advance for saying this but - I told you long ago to get your butt to the live games and see what happened. I am glad to hear about your recent success but it comes as no surprise to me. As Morpheus said to Neo in the first (and only good) Matrix film - Welcome to the REAL world (of poker).
Anyway, to your big win with the set of 6's, I think the big mistake was talking about your hand and almost causing the guy to fold by telling him he needed the straight to win. Flopping sets and detroying overpairs is one of the most profitable situations in low-limit NLHE. You have to be willing to get all in in that spot and be comfortable with the odds. If you didn't stack the guy with Aces, you would have lost value from your set. If he hits the miracle 2 outer, that's poker. You will have made the absolutely correct play and that's all you can really control.
Another thought, never be reluctant to cash out when you are way up for the session. You can always take a break and then buy back in for your standard buy in or walk to a nearby place and play there. It's all about leaving with more money than you came with - period. Remember to have the discipline to leave a winner.
Congrats and good luck as you keep grinding.

[baglife]

Lucypher,

Hah you did say it all along I can't argue that. Live is where it is at for me right now, though online has been an important part of my progression. I actually remember seeing the first Matrix in the theater when I was younger (man I'm old!), mind-blown.

Now that I look back I shouldn't have said anything in the hand. At the time I said something like "I don't think you have 45". I was actually looking for his reaction to see if I could pick something up when I said this. But after I shoved all in I realized I shouldn't have said that. Then again I'm comfortable talking in the middle of huge hands no matter what I'm holding, so it's not like he can take what I said at 100%. I'll definitely take that situation anytime, but if he folded no worries. I have to stack, but I think the thought process to pretty much rule 45 out of this guys range was important. Understanding WHY it's not reasonable for him to have 45 there is important.

I've been reluctant to cash out when I'm up huge during the past month or two. My confidence to leave a big stack on has enabled me to win some BIG sessions. If there is no threat and the table is very profitable I really don't see a reason to pull it, but something to keep in mind. I'm sure this will get me in trouble one day, but it's a largely situational thing imo. Thanks for the input and thoughts, hope all is well.

-bag