Another Day in Paradise (4/9/2012)

Just finished another amazing 5/10 sesion down -$100 in 7 hours.  The night was ruined as a spaz-casual player gets dealt monster K8o facing my $50 isolation.  I have KK, flop Q 88, he check ships $600ish short stacked after spazzing the last hour, I of course snap call.  I expect to have 2 outs the way I'm running, but one out really?

Dating back to the Florida trip that's the 8th consecutive losing session in a row.  I'm going for somewhat of record here.  The most I've ever lost consecutive live was 11 sessions.  I'm only 3 away! 

Results aside, I felt good playing tonight.  I didn't make any mistakes and the table was profitable.  I also felt better physically, almost completely over being sick.

I'm going to try to play at least 6 hours tomorrow.  I keep saying I'm going to drop to 2/5 if the 5/10 isn't good enough, but I keep finding profitable 5/10 games.

I'm not sure if or when exactly I'll win money playing poker again, but I will say it's getting very humorous at this point.  Hell if it all ends here it's been fun I guess?

Also, I'm enjoying 5/10 more than 2/5.  I sort-of feared that this would happen, which is a reason I previously listed for not wanting to go up too soon.  I like how deep it plays.  I like how every small mistake is maximized.  And I thought the "must-moves" would be a disadvantage to me at first because you obviously can't table select as well.  But I actually like the must-moves.  It gives you time to strategize what table you want to go too and you don't have to worry about scouting 6 tables before you sit down.  It also forces you to immediately focus on the action during every pot.

I'm learning my problem isn't really live poker (ok maybe some), the problem is more specifically the 2/5 scene at Borgata, which is now incredibly tilting to me.

That's it for tonight.  I'm going to try to post nightly results from 5/10 to keep myself sane.

-bag

Bad 5/10 Start (4/8/2012)

I’ve pretty much stumbled into the 5/10 scene here.  I’m playing good, but I can’t seem to win a session.  I’m getting card dead for ridiculous spans.  And when I do pick up a decent value hand it automatically gets sucked out on the next street.  Typical live poker doom-switch.  I’ve played 30 hours of 5/10 down -$2300.

The games have been good.  I haven’t felt like I’ve been threatened or out-played by anyone.  So right now I have another 4 buy-ins set aside for 5/10.  If I keep running like this I will be forced to drop back down to 2/5 soon.  That’s what happens when you save your worst run in a thousand hours for the exact time you jump up in stakes.

But there are no streaks, it’s all in my head.  All I can do is play every hand correctly, I must remain in the present.  But really it’s not over.  If I drop 4 more buy-ins that would equate to being down around -6k total.  This is pretty much like losing -3k on 2/5.  The last time I lost -3k on 2/5 consecutively was around September 10th 2011 (this turned into the worst live swing of my life where I dropped over -7k or 12 buy-ins before stabilizing).  I lost around 3k consecutive playing 2/5 another time around July 10^th 2011.     

And that’ s it.  I’ve logged 1,940 hours playing 2/5 since I’ve been a pro.  During that time I’ve had two down-swings that lasted 6 buy-ins or more.

The point is, I’m not going to drop 6 consecutive buy-ins playing live poker often.  And if my one in a thousand hour 6 buy-in + down-swings happens the exact moment I take a shot at 5/10, then that’s just incredibly fucked up, what else can I say.  The problem is I'm already down 2 buy-ins, so dropping another 4 wouldn't be that rare.

What’s the plan if that happens?

If my bankroll falls to 30k I’ll have to grind 2/5 until I get at my BR to at least 40k.  Adding 10k on top of living expenses could take another 5 months if I run average.  So it’s either accept I’ll play 2/5 for at least 5 months. 

Or I can try to borrow something like 10k and skip the re-grind 2/5 step.  If 5/10 is clearly beatable and a much higher hourly I may just be wasting my time playing 2/5.  This is a lot to think about because I’ve never borrowed money before.  But I have to look at things long term here.  Logically I should be able to repay the 10k if I run average at 5/10 for 2.5 months.  Then I just stabilized on a higher stakes with a higher hourly and saved 3 wasted months.  Much to think about here, but I think it’s important I consider this thought process.         

-bag

Trip Report, Updates, and 5/10 Shot (4/6/2012)

Long post here.  I’m going to start with a trip update then get into the current 5/10 shot I’m taking.

I’m now back from Florida.  It was a good trip with the exception of poker.  It was at least 85 degrees daily.  I laid out in the sun a lot and did go out several nights.   I ended up losing -$1800 in 50 hours on the tables out there.  Everything that could go wrong pretty much did.  However, $1500 of that was lost during my first 22 hours ever played at 5/10, so it really wasn’t a big loss.  But expenses on top of everything started to really add up.

Some thoughts from the trip:

A)  Traveling for a poker “business trip” is pointless at any level below 5/10.

Just don’t even waste your time if you are expecting to cover the trip on the table playing 2/5 or below.  Just consider it a vacation with some poker mixed in.  Or better yet go on vacation and don’t even play poker.  It’s incredibly difficult to sustain a high hourly rate playing 2/5 while cramming it in on a vacation week for various reasons.  Remember your schedule will most likely be fucked which should impact your hourly.  It’s just not easy staying out of hotels and playing A-game the next day if you aren’t used to it.  Then you end up partying certain nights and forcing sessions the next day.  Then you end up forcing sessions when you know your schedule is already screwed. 

B)  South Florida is amazing.

I don’t know if I would want to live there, but I wouldn’t mind visiting a month per year (especially during the Northeast winter).  The weather was around 85 and sunny daily.  The going out scene particularly in Miami is amazing.  There are also a LOT of attractive girls, and they seem much more receptive to meeting new people.

C)  The 5/10 games were better, but the 2/5 comparable.

The 5/10 regulars in Florida are clearly living an easy life.  The 5/10 games I witnessed were comparable to 2/5 games at the Borgata in skill level.  You would have a 2-3 regular pros per table that were not threats.  I really don’t see how you can get hurt in those games with the correct bankroll and a 500 hour sample size.  In contrast, I was somewhat unimpressed with the 2/5 games in Florida.  Yeah I saw some great ones, but nothing like: “holy shit I have to move to Florida to play 2/5 for a living”.  Like anywhere you really have to table select.  A lot of the 2/5 games were infested with the typical middle to older white guy nits.

D)  The casinos are very spaced out.

There wasn’t really a MAIN location to play 2/5 and 5/10, it was very spread out.  I ended up playing at Isle, Gulfstream, Flagger, Hardrock, and even coconut creek.  Hardrock seemed to have the best action while I was in town, but there was also a WPT event going on there.

Going Forward:

Right now my head is spinning somewhat, I’m not feeling great.  Sore throat and feeling very tired.  I’m not going to play until I feel close to 100%.  When I do play it’s most likely going to be 5/10.  I feel like I opened Pandora’s box on vacation by stepping into the high stakes in Florida.  It’s Borgata tournament time around here, so now would be a reasonable time to continue with the shot.  I’m a little upset I’m sitting home sick while 50 tables are going at Borgata on a Thursday, but that’s life.

Basically my total poker bankroll is around $35,000 at the moment.  I plan to step into 5/10 games as much as possible until my bankroll falls below 30k, or until I sort of get used to 5/10 and can grind out an hourly.  I’m obviously going to be jumping back and forth between 5/10 and 2/5 during this process.  There is no way in hell I’m going to sit on unprofitable 5/10 games when there are 5 soft 2/5 tables going on simultaneously.  

So why all of the sudden did I decide to jump into 5/10?  What happened to the ultra conservative wait until I have 50k?  Here are a few factors that pushed me to take a shot.  Some of them are surprisingly not so logical, but I’m going to list them anyways in no particular order of importance:

1)  I’m more than 50% confident that I can take a shot with 6 buy-ins at 5/10 and somewhat stabilize there.  If I can do this my average hourly should be at least 30% higher than it was at 2/5.  In a way it is worth the risk. 

2)  The worst case scenario isn’t that bad.  The worst case scenario is I drop to $30,000 (60 buy-ins at 2/5).  I then have to drop and grind out 2/5 for at least another half year.   So I’m still pretty much in the same situation.

3)  My goal since I’ve started live poker was to get up to 5/10 as quickly as possible.  I actually have a chance of hitting that goal.

4)  My older brother who I look up too called me a “risk adverse” person for not taking the shot already and he knows nothing about poker.  I have no idea why this got under my skin so bad.

5)  Two live grinder friends I respect think I’m being over conservative with my bankroll and think I would do fine at 5/10 right now.

6)  There is a chance I’m being over conservative with my bankroll.  If I can beat 5/10 now with 30 buy-ins then I should be playing 5/10.  The only way to know is to PLAY 5/10.

7)  This is a huge step.  It should really help me figure out where my skill level is at.  Do I need to study more?  Am I in the same league with the top regulars?  Why am I not in the same league?  Why am I close?  What do they have that I don’t?  How do I get what they have?

8)  This is a logical time to take a 5/10 shot because the Borgata open is going on.  This makes the games much softer than usual.  Instead of 1-2 tables of 5/10 during the week there is now FIVE.  That means at least 20 players at any given time that probably SHOULDN’T be playing 5/10.

9)  I’m always pressuring myself to move up.  Why?  Because I don’t want to grind 2/5 for $30 an hour for a living for the next 3 years.  If I can’t get to and stabilize at 5/10 or back online I might as well move on from a long term perspective.

I’ve accepted that there is a very distinct possibility that I could drop below 30k and my 5/10 shot could end.  But that’s fine, Pandora’s box is already opened.  What’s the worst that can happen?  I grind 2/5 another year?

-bag