I’ve pretty much stumbled into the 5/10 scene here. I’m playing good, but I can’t seem to win a session. I’m getting card dead for ridiculous spans. And when I do pick up a decent value hand it automatically gets sucked out on the next street. Typical live poker doom-switch. I’ve played 30 hours of 5/10 down -$2300.
The games have been good. I haven’t felt like I’ve been threatened or out-played by anyone. So right now I have another 4 buy-ins set aside for 5/10. If I keep running like this I will be forced to drop back down to 2/5 soon. That’s what happens when you save your worst run in a thousand hours for the exact time you jump up in stakes.
But there are no streaks, it’s all in my head. All I can do is play every hand correctly, I must remain in the present. But really it’s not over. If I drop 4 more buy-ins that would equate to being down around -6k total. This is pretty much like losing -3k on 2/5. The last time I lost -3k on 2/5 consecutively was around September 10th 2011 (this turned into the worst live swing of my life where I dropped over -7k or 12 buy-ins before stabilizing). I lost around 3k consecutive playing 2/5 another time around July 10th 2011.
And that’ s it. I’ve logged 1,940 hours playing 2/5 since I’ve been a pro. During that time I’ve had two down-swings that lasted 6 buy-ins or more.
The point is, I’m not going to drop 6 consecutive buy-ins playing live poker often. And if my one in a thousand hour 6 buy-in + down-swings happens the exact moment I take a shot at 5/10, then that’s just incredibly fucked up, what else can I say. The problem is I'm already down 2 buy-ins, so dropping another 4 wouldn't be that rare.
What’s the plan if that happens?
If my bankroll falls to 30k I’ll have to grind 2/5 until I get at my BR to at least 40k. Adding 10k on top of living expenses could take another 5 months if I run average. So it’s either accept I’ll play 2/5 for at least 5 months.
Or I can try to borrow something like 10k and skip the re-grind 2/5 step. If 5/10 is clearly beatable and a much higher hourly I may just be wasting my time playing 2/5. This is a lot to think about because I’ve never borrowed money before. But I have to look at things long term here. Logically I should be able to repay the 10k if I run average at 5/10 for 2.5 months. Then I just stabilized on a higher stakes with a higher hourly and saved 3 wasted months. Much to think about here, but I think it’s important I consider this thought process.
-bag